Derivatives Daily Update: March 30 2012

Strong Opening: March 30, 2012

Nifty April Futures started the innings on strong footing and closed at 5333.25 up by 156.25 points Bank Nifty too supported the Nifty by closing at 10269.85 up by 331.4 points. Open Interest in Nifty on consolidated basis across all series stood at 2.31 Cr shares. Volumes were moderate at Rs 886 bn. Put Call Ratio inclusive of stock futures and stock options stood at 1.06. Volatility as measured by India VIX receded to 22.38 down by 8%. Dollar Rupee duo too was bit weaker at 51.23 from 51.63 levels. All in all we started with good momentum, that too with upward bias.

As expressed in several earlier posts, I stick to my opinion that we are in Bull Market and fall from higher level should be considered as healthy correction and an opportunity to buy. In last few days Nifty tried to breach 5150, its long term moving average but was not able to do so on sustainable basis and some kind of buying interest emerges at those strong support levels. As long as we remain above this level there are very fair chances that we will revisit resistance zone of 5550-5600 levels. Advice is to Buy with stop below 5150 with price target of 5550-5600.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were DHANBANK 17%, MRPL 13%, TVSMOTORS 10%, JISLJAL 9% and CENTRALBK 9%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were NAGAROIL -4%, SUZLON -3%, ABB -2%, ZEEL -1% and CAIRN -1%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, RELIANCE, TATASTEEL and AXISBANK.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were RELIANCE 740 CE, SBIN 2100 CE, SBIN 2200 CE, RELIANCE 760 CE and SBIN 2400 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4800 CE (1.60 LK) 5000 CE (1.24 LK) 5300 CE (1.02 LK) 5400 CE (3.66 LK) 5500 CE (4.20 LK) 5600 CE (4.71 LK) 5700 CE (4.36 LK) 5800 CE (1.48 LK) 6000 CE (1.68 LK) 4400 PE (1.05 LK) 4500 PE (2.12 LK) 4600 PE (13.32 LK) 4700 PE (2.98 LK) 4900 PE (2.09 LK) 5100 PE (7.77 LK) 5200 PE (6.86 LK) 5300 PE ( 6.67 LK) 5400 PE (2.29 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5000 PE (2.93 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 1.78 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 2.76 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 88 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 45.35 LK shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.37.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 29 2012

Lackluster Expiry: March 29, 2012

Nifty March Futures closed lower by 20.40 points at 5177. Bank Nifty too closed at 9938.48 down by meager 28 points. Volumes were obviously higher due to rollover activity and stood at Rs 2.50 trillion. Open Interest saw an increase 32.26 lakh shares and stood at 4 Cr Nifty. If we consider Nifty’s Open Interest of new series it stood at 2.35 Cr shares up from 1.91 Cr shares on previous day. Put Call Ratio was 0.98 and Dollar Rupee April future was trading at 51.63. Volatility as measured by India VIX was ruling at 24.33 down by 2%. All in all it was weak and lackluster expiry. Noticeable thing was that it touched 5150 which is crucial support and bounced back from those levels.

In my opinion, if in coming couple of days we are able to sustain above this support area on sustainable basis, I think uptrend might resume and we may be able to see resistance area of 5550-5600. Let us see what April has to offer us in terms of price movement.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were NCC 10%, IVRCLINFRA 8%, TATAPOWER 7%, RANBAXY 6% and INDIAINFO 6%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were EKC -6%, WELCOPRP -6%, DHANBANK -6%, INDIACEM -5% and JSWISPAT -5%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were RELIANCE, SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATASTEEL and AXISBANK.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2100 CE, SBIN 2050PE, SBIN 2050 CE, SBIN 2000 PE and ICICIBANK 860 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5200 CE (49.67 LK) 5300 CE (8.64 LK) 4900 PE (1.27 LK) 5000 PE (26.63 LK) 5100 PE (57.33 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4900 CE (2.49 LK) 5000 CE (4.33 LK) 5100 CE (11.27 LK) 5400 CE (9.60 LK) 5500 CE (2.98 LK) 5600 CE (1.27 LK) 5800 CE (1.31 LK) 6000 CE (1.27 LK) 4600 PE (1.26 LK) 4700 PE (1.38 LK) 4800 PE (1.10 LK) 5200 PE (23.16 LK) 5300 PE (12.33 LK) 5400 PE (2.94 LK) 5500 PE (3.98 LK) 5600 PE (1.32 LK) 6000 PE (2.22 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 4.71 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.14 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 13.09 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 69.76 LK shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.00

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 28 2012

Weak Day: March 28, 2012

Nifty March Futures closed lower by 54.35 points at 5197.40. Bank Nifty too closed lower by 203.30 points at 9966.45 points. Volumes were lower than yesterday and stood at Rs 1.89 trillion. Open Interest in Nifty across all series saw an increase of 15.73 shares and stood at 3.68 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio came down to 0.94 from 1.02 levels indicating some pressure on Bull traders. Volatility as measured by India VIX came down by 1% at 24.87. Dollar Rupp duo was trading at 50.91. All in all some expiry pressure were seen in the market and built up by bears were seen in Nifty as on down day Open Interest shot up indicating some bears have created fresh positions.

In my opinion we are trading almost near the long term support zone of 5150-5200. If we are able to decisively hold these levels on closing basis and that too sustain ably for couple of days even after expiry, uptrend might resume once again. So watch expiry and couple of days after that very closely and trade accordingly. Just for the sake of knowledge Nifty 200 DMA (cash market) is placed around 5150 hence consider this level as important support.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were MCDOWELL 5%, GLAXO 3%, HINDZINC 3%, UNIONBANK 2% and TATASTEEL 2%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were TITAN -6%, IBREALEST -6%, DCHL -6%, SREIINFRA -6% and MERCATOR -5%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, TATASTTEL, ICICIBANK, RELIANCE and TATAMOTORS.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2150 CE, SBIN 2100 PE, SBIN 2100 CE, RELIANCE 740 CE and SBIN 2200 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100 CE (3.64 LK) 5300 CE (21.61 LK) 5000 PE (1.80 LK) 5100 PE (14.06 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5500 CE (4.95 LK) 5600 CE (2.04 LK) 5700 CE (1.57 LK) 5800 CE (1.24 LK) 4500 PE (1.58 LK) 4700 PE (2.59 LK) 4800 PE (1.34 LK) 4900 PE (1.19 LK) 5200 PE (1.69 LK) 5300 PE (11.20 LK) 5400 PE (7.21 LK) 5500 PE (1.72 LK) 6000 PE (1.10 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 4.43 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.44 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 35.07 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 1.31 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 0.99.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update March 27 2012

Choppy Day: March 27, 2012

Nifty March Futures closed up by 60.45 points at 5251.75 amidst much of gyrations and choppiness. Bank Nifty closed up by 107.10 points at 10169.75. Volumes were higher partly due to choppiness and partly due to shifting of positions to new series. Open Interest across all the series was up by 6 lakh shares at 3.52 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio was almost stable at 1.02. Volatility as measured by India VIX was down by 6% at 25.05 and Dollar Rupee duo was trading lower at 50.74. All in all it was a day of choppiness but with upward bias.

In my opinion, as said in earlier posts 5150-5175 is support zone and till today we are holding on those levels and have not broken them though have visited those level couple of times. As long as we hold this levels there is a strong chance that we will bounce back from this levels and might approach the higher band of Resistance zone which is placed at 5550-5600. My advice is hold on long positions or Buy at current rate with stop below 5150. Mind you we are nearing expiry and choppiness is expected in the markets so trade very cautiously.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were BOMDYEING 8%, INDIACEM 7%, ORCHIDCHEM 5%, JINDALSAW 5% and SRTRANSFIN 5%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were MPHASIS -4%, MAX -3%, GSPL -3%, TECHM -3% and TVSMOTOR -2%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATASTEEL, RELIANCE and AXISBANK.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2200 CE, SBIN 2100 PE, SBIN 2150 CE, RELIANCE 740 CE and ICICIBANK 880 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5200 PE (8.12 LK) 5300 PE (5.97 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100 CE (2.66 LK) 5200 CE (3.23 LK) 5300 PE (8.31 LK) 5500 CE (2.24 LK) 5600 CE (1.39 LK) 5700 CE (1.44 LK) 4900 PE (2.02 LK) 5000 PE (1.19 LK) 5400 PE (2.17 LK) 5500 PE (1.45 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 3.90 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.16 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 90.62 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 95.35 LK shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.06.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 26, 2012

Down Day: March 26, 2012

Nifty March Futures closed lower by 94.05 points at 5191.30. Bank Nifty too closed lower by 248.35 points at 10062.65. Volumes were higher than yesterday at Rs.1.76 trillion. Open Interest across all the series was up by 6.15 lakh shares at 3.46 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio came down to 1.01 from 1.22 levels. Volatility as measured by India VIX shot up by 15% at 26.74. Dollar Rupee pair was trading higher at 51.42. All in all it was a down day and data indicates short term technical weakness.

In my opinion we are trading very near to long term support zone and it is very crucial that we hold on this level. If Nifty fails to hold on this level and closes below support area for couple of days, possibility of touching 5000 increases manifold. Technical data and price movement along with Put Call Ratio definitely suggests some cautious approach by traders but the kind of capitulation is still not witnessed in the market. Till that time Buy with stop loss below support zone of 5150.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were KSOIL 20%, MAX 3%, JPASSOCIAT 3% ALSTOM 3% and DISHTV 3%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were RENUKA -7%, IRB -75, HDIL -7%, OPTOCIRCUI -7% and JSWENERGY -6%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, RELIANCE, AXISBANK and DLF.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2200 CE, SBIN 2100 PE, RELIANCE 740 CE, SBIN 2150 CE and TATASTEEL 460 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100 CE (4.91 LK) 5200 CE (17.76 LK) 5300 CE (18.82 LK) 5400 CE (6.72 LK) 5100 PE (20.34 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5500 CE (2.23 LK0 5600 CE (4.79 LK) 5700 CE (4.86 LK) 5800 CE (3.34 LK) 5900 CE (1.55 LK) 4800 PE (1.16 LK) 5000 PE (7.10 LK) 5200 PE (10.62 LK) 5300 PE (14.70 LK) 5400 PE (8.91 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 4.70 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.47 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 41.93 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 1.68 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.01.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 23 2012

Day of Consolidation: March 23, 2012

Nifty March Futures closed up by 45.3 points at 5285.35. Bank Nifty too closed higher by 115.45 points at 10311. Volumes were lower than yesterday at Rs 1.69 trillion. Open Interest in Nifty across all series on consolidated basis was down by 1.43 lakh shares at 3.40 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio improved to 1.22 from 1.15 indicating traders have gained some confidence back and have written Puts against Calls. Volatility as measured by India VIX which shot up yesterday by 18% cooled off a bit by 6% at 23.34. Dollar Rupee duo was trading firm at 51.29 indicating some pressure on rupee. All in all, ferocity with which we fall yesterday was halted today and some improvement was seen in the market.

My stand is vindicated and more than confirmed after today’s movement. I reproduce my opinion which I expressed yesterday. “In my opinion we are near a major support zone which is placed in a range of 5150-5200. Long term moving average (200 DMA & 200 EMA) are 5218 and 5170 respectively. Fibonacci Retracement level, 50% of the last wave is placed at 5147. I still hold the view we will be able to hold this levels. God forbid, if we break this level and trade below this level on sustainable basis for couple of days, we will have to revise our strategy which can only be decided after looking at price pressure points. Till that time we will have to believe that we are in uptrend and every dip is an opportunity to buy.”

Top five individual stocks which gained today were CENTURYTEXT 11%, UNITECH 7%, ADANIPOWER 6%, WELCORP 6% and PUNJLLOYD 6%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were FSL -4%, VOLTAS -3%, MRPL -3%, BHARATFORG -3% and ADANIPORTS -2%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, TATASTEEL, AXISBANK, ICICIBANK and RELIANCE.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2200 CE, SBIN 2100 PE, SBIN 2300 CE SBIN 2250 CE and TATASTEEL 460 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5200 CE (3.53 LK) 5300 CE (4.88 LK) 5500 CE (2.56 LK) 4500 PE (2.98 LK) 4700 PE (1.95 LK) 4800 PE (2 LK) 5000 PE (9.57 LK) 5100 PE (16.32 LK) 5200 PE (18.97 LK) 5300 PE (7.01 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5800 CE (1.47 LK) 5800 CE (1.33 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 4.12 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.21 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 80.99 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 1.28 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.11.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 22, 2012

Sell Off Day: March 22, 2012

Nifty March Futures drastically came down by 154.45 points at 5240.05. Bank Nifty too closed lower by 400.65 points at 10195.55 points. Volumes were much higher than yesterday and stood at Rs 1.98 trillion up by nearly 30% from yesterday’s level. Open Interest was lower by 3.70 lakh shares and stood at 3.41 Cr shares on account of some Bull unwinding. Put Call Ratio was surprisingly up to 1.15 from 1.03 levels. Volatility as measured by India VIX shot up once again by whooping 18% at 24.77. In yesterday’s post only I opined that Volatility in coming days will increase as it was trading at its lower level and it has a habit of moving towards its mean. Dollar Rupee duo was trading higher at 51.15 from 50.58 points. Rupee is feeling pressure which is not good for equity markets. Statistics are not good for market. Increased volume on down day, increase in volatility and pressure on Rupee will play a spoil sport. Only saving grace is, we are trading near major support zone and Bulls are still holding their positions. Let us see what week end and this expiry has to offer in coming days.

In my opinion we are near a major support zone which is placed in a range of 5150-5200. Long term moving average (200 DMA & 200 EMA) are 5218 and 5170 respectively. Fibonacci Retracement level, 50% of the last wave is placed at 5147. I still hold the view we will be able to hold this levels. God forbid, if we break this level and trade below this level on sustainable basis for couple of days, we will have to revise our strategy which can only be decided after looking at price pressure points. Till that time we will have to believe that we are in uptrend and every dip is an opportunity to buy, notwithstanding the rumors of some Coal scam and  global events that are unfolding.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were TECHM 6%, FSL 4%, COALINDIA 2%, IVRCLINFRA 2% and ASHOKLEY 1%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were JSWENERGY -10%, INDIAINFO -9%, JSWSTEEL -9%, MERCATOR -9% and ABAN -8%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, TATASTEEL, RELIANCE, ICICIBANK and HDIL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2300 CE, TATASTEEL 480 CE, SBIN 2400 CE, RELIANCE 760 CE and TATASTEEL 460 PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100 CE (4.91 LK) 5200 CE 915.05 LK) 5300 CE (8.06 LK) 5400 CE (14.21 LK) 5500 CE (14.22 LK) 5600 CE (2.55 LK) 4000 PE (1.07 LK) 4600 PE (2.03 LK) 4700 PE (2.40 LK) 4800 PE (1.72 LK) 5000 PE (9.39 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5700 CE (5.55 LK) 5800 PE (1.18 LK) 5900 PE (2.48 LK) 6000 PE (1.79 LK) 4900 PE (4.31 LK) 5200 PE (1.46 LK) 5300 PE (9.26 LK0 5400 PE (10.53 LK) 5500 PE (4.93 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 4.17 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.04 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 79.14 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 1.27 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.07.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 21, 2012

Day of Bulls: March 21, 2012

After listlessness of single day Nifty zoomed back to 5394.50 up by 97.50 points. Bank Nifty too closed up by 270.65 points at 10596.20. Volumes were higher than yesterday at Rs 1.5 trillion. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series came down just by 1.24 lakh shares indicating only meager quantity of shorts have been squared off. Put Call Ratio have risen to 1.03 from 0.99 indicating either short Calls have been covered up or fresh Put writing has been done by traders which in turn indicates market participants have turned bit bullish. Volatility as measured by India VIX is at its lowest in recent times at 21 down by 4%. In coming days choppiness is expected in the market as VIX will start moving upwards towards its mean. Dollar Rupee duo was trading up at 50.58 and some pressure on rupee was felt by participants.

My stance that we are in medium term Bull Market is once again vindicated today. In several posts earlier, I have been maintaining that the current fall from higher level is a correction and this correction will not continue beyond 5175. I have been advising that every fall in the market warrants buying and today we have witnessed the same. If markets keeps on moving up as it seems from the data, than we might touch resistance zone of 5550-5600. Once we clear this level, I will not be surprised if we make a new high. My advice is to buy in every dips with adequate stop loss.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were TTKPRESTIG 15%, CENTURYTEX 10%, MRF 9%, BGRENERGY 9% and HDIL 9%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were OFSS -1%, CAIRN -1%, HINDALCO -1%, ADANIPORTS -1% SUNPHARMA -1%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, TATAMOTORS, TATASTEEL, HDIL and LICHSGFIN.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2300 CE, TATAMOTORS 280 CE, SBIN 2200 CE, SBIN 2250 CE and RELIANCE 780 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5000 PE (3.41 LK) 5200 PE (3.40 LK) 5300 PE (10.96 LK) 5400 PE (15 LK) 5500 PE (1.46 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100 CE (1.87 LK) 5200 CE (4.49 LK) 5300 CE (6.24 LK0 5500 CE (2.53 LK) 5600 CE (1.40 LK) 5700 CE (3.65 LK) 5800 CE (1.35 LK) 5900 CE (5.56 LK) 6000 CE (2.46 LK) 6100 CE (4.15 LK) 4600 PE (1.24 LK) 4800 PE (1.99 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 3.08 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 5.22 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.61 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 43.66 Lk shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.20.

Happy Trading Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 20, 2012

Listless Day: March 20, 2012

Nifty March Futures closed at 5297 up by 20 points. Bank Nifty too closed higher by 97.15 points at 10325.55. Volumes were slightly higher than yesterday at Rs.1.36 trillion. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series came down by 3.27 lakh shares and stood at 4.46 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio improved to 0.99 from 0.83 levels. Volatility as measured by India VIX was down by 5% at 21.94. Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 50.50. All in all it was a day of consolidation after correction of couple of days.

I hold the same opinion as expressed in earlier posts that in short term we might correct up to 5175 but fall beyond that level seems to be difficult. Medium term chart of Nifty represents bullish pattern and every fall in Nifty warrants some buying. Though upper level too are capped at 5550 levels but if we do not break 5175 and again start moving up this level can be taken out. In nutshell Buy with stop below 5175 with medium term target of 5550 -5600 level.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were BATAINDIA 6%, PATELENG 6%, VIPIND 6%, TTKPRESTIG 6% and PTC 5%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were TATAMTRDVR -6%, KFA -6%, TATAMOTORS -4%, ADANIPOWER -4% and ADANIENT -4%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, TATAMOTORS, AXISBANK, ICICIBANK and TATASTEEL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2200 CE, SBIN 2300 CE, SBIN 2250 CE, SBIN 2100 PE and RELIANCE 760 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5300 CE (3.14 LK) 5400 CE (3.38 LK) 5500 CE (1.95 LK) 5700 CE (2.54 LK) 4900 PE (6.34 LK) 5100 PE (3.42 LK) 5200 PE (2.33 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5800 CE (3.68 LK) 5900 CE (1.17 LK) 4800 PE (1.33 LK) 5000 PE (1.15 LK) 5300 PE (1.48 LK) 5500 PE (3.30 LK) 5600 PE (4.56 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 4.35 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.99 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 69.76 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 1.37 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.06.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 19, 2012

Correction Continues: March 19, 2012

Nifty March Futures opened lower and continued its weakness and closed at 5277.30 down by 65.40 points. Bank Nifty too was vulnerable and it too closed lower at 10228.40 down by 208.35 points. Volumes were nearly 40% lower than yesterday and stood at Rs. 1.32 trillion. Open Interest in Nifty across all series saw an up tick by 2.5 lakh shares and stood at 3.50 Cr shares probably highest for current series. Put Call Ratio was lower than yesterday and stood at 0.83. Volatility as measured by India VIX was mildly lower at 22.97 down by nearly 1%. Dollar Rupee pair was trading almost flat at 50.33. All in all markets were reacting to Budget event and lack of follow up by Bulls. If Put Call Ratio is any indication than it warns us that traders are weary and their thinking is tilted towards markets heading lower.

In my opinion, as said in several earlier posts, in short term we might correct to the level of 5275 and once it is broken than we can correct up to level of 5175, but beyond 5175 it seems difficult to fall as 5175 is multiple support level. I still hold the same view as overall structure of Nifty is still bullish. Scenario can change only when we successfully and sustain ably close below 5175 for couple of days. Till that time every fall is an opportunity to buy.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were MCLEODRUSS 3%, TECHM 2%, OPTOCIRCUIT 2%, HAVELLS 2% and M&M 2%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were RENUKA -8%, HDIL -8%, BFUTILITIES -7%, RELINFRA -7% and NCC -6%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, RELIANCE, AXISBANK and HDIL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2300 CE, SBIN 2100 PE, RELIANCE 800 CE, SBIN 2400 CE and SBIN 2200 PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5000 CE (1.30 LK) 5100 CE (3.94 LK) 5200 CE (1.26 LK) 5300 CE (13.69 LK) 5400 CE (14.88 LK) 5500 CE (94.43 LK) 5700 CE (1 LK) 4800 PE (4.21 LK) 4900 PE (2.97 LK) 5000 PE (1.98 LK) 5100 PE (12.96 LK) 5200 PE (9.72 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 56—CE (4.60 LK) 5900 CE (6.17 LK) 6000 CE (3.90 LK) 6100 CE (1.30 LK) 6200 CE (1.65 LK) 4600 PE (1.32 LK) 5400 PE (6 LK) 5500 PE (3.06 LK) 5600 PE (1.70 LK) 5700 PE (1.05 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 4.40 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.04 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 70.93 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 1.55 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.09.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 16, 2012

Day of Correction: March 16, 2012

Nifty March Futures closed lower by 76.4 points at 5342.70. Bank Nifty too closed lower by 218.10 points at 10436.75. Volumes in the market were drastically up by nearly 80% at Rs 2.16 trillion. Open Interest in Nifty on consolidated basis across all the three pending series were up by 11.64 lakh shares at 3.47 Cr shares probably at highest level of current month. Put Call Ratio inched up at 0.97 from 0.90 levels. Volatility as measured by India VIX was surprisingly down by 9% at 23.13. Dollar Rupee pair in futures market was trading comfortably at 50.33. All in all it was a day of correction with mixed set of data. While increase in volumes and Open Interest on down day are bit negative, improvement in Put Call Ratio and stable Dollar Rupee can be considered positive.

In my opinion it was a day of correction if we consider technical data for medium term. While in shorter term charts it has broken short term moving averages which are placed at 5421 and 5371, it is well above its medium to long term averages which are placed at 5275 and 5175. Technical structure of Nifty is bullish. As long as we remain above long term averages, this falls can be construed as correction and once we are out of this pain, upward journey will continue.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were ITC 4%, INDIACEM 4%, M&M 3%, MAX 3% and SOBHA 3%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were SUNPHARMA -8%, PUNJLLOYD -7%, NMDC -7% MERCATOR -7% and JISLAL -7%

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATAMOTORS, RELIANCE and ITC.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2400CE, SBIN 2200 PE, SBIN 2500 CE, RELIANCE 800 CE and SBIN 2300 PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5200 CE (2.83 LK) 5300 CE (2.63 LK) 5400 CE (4.97 LK) 5500 CE (3.55 LK) 5600 CE (6.42 LK) 5800 CE (6.48 LK) 5000 PE (2.07 LK) 5100 PE (4.15 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5700 CE (8.63 LK) 6000 PE (3.32 LK) 5200 PE (13.22 LK) 5500 PE (1.43 LK) 5600 PE (1.65 LK) 5700 PE (1.06 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 3.96 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.38 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 93.63 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 1.03 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.11.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 15, 2012

Profit Taking Day: March 15, 2012

Nifty march Futures closed at 5419.10 down by 87 points. Bank Nifty too closed lower by 326.65 points at 10654.85 points. Volumes were higher than yesterday and stood at Rs. 1.24 trillion. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series was higher by 8 lakh shares at 3.35 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio came down to 0.90 from 1.09 levels. Volatility as measured by India VIX shot up by 3% at 25.42. Dollar Rupee pair too was trading higher at 50.53. All in all some shorting has taken place in the market as RBI policy could not bring any cheers.

In my opinion, structurally we are still in Bull market on medium term time frame but as today markets were not able to make any new highs and that was the reason markets gave away the gains of few days. As long as we remain above 5175, there is a fair chance we will again start moving up but tomorrow is a Budget event which has a potential of generating huge volatility so be cautious and if possible trade in Options market only.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were EDUCOMP 5%, JSWENERGY 4%, KFA 3%, HINDUNILVR 2% and ADANIPOWER 2%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were LITL -8%, TITAN -7%, IBREALEST -7%, SINTEX -6% and GMRINFRA -6%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, RELIANCE, TATASTEEL and TATAMOTORS.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2400 CE, SBIN 2500 CE, SBIN 2300 PE, SBIN 2200 PE and SBIN 2100 PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5400 CE (6.21 LK) 5500 CE (15.69 LK) 5600 CE (14.54 LK) 5700 CE (11.57 LK) 5800 CE (2.55 LK) 5900 CE (4.40 LK) 6000 CE (10.43 LK) 6100 CE (2.17 LK) 4900 PE (3.39 LK) 5100 PE 93.25 LK) 5400 PE (3.96 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5300 CE (2.26 LK) 5000 PE (3.76 LK) 5500 PE (4.03 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 3.64 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 5.07 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.31 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 63.49 Lk shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.15.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 14, 2012

Upside Momentum Continues: March 14, 2012

Nifty March Futures closed at 5506.10 up by 37.70 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10981.50 up by 216.05 points. Volumes were higher than yesterday and stood at Rs.1.05 trillion. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series too improved by 9 lakh shares and stood at 3.27 Cr shares. Open Interest in bank Nifty too improved and stood at 13/99 lakh shares up by 1.24 lakh shares. Put Call Ratio too inched up a bit and stood at 1.09. Volatility as measured by India VIX was almost flat at 24.75 and Dollar Rupee duo was trading fairly stable at 50.15. All in all upside momentum in market continued ahead of the 2 major events in couple of days.

In my opinion, as long as we remain above 5175 and in very short term above 5435 there is fair chance that we will be able to kiss the recent high of 5700. My advice will be to hold on your positions and buy some puts to hedge against any odd or adverse news in either RBI policy or Budget.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were FINANTECH 7%, PATNI 7%, BANKINDIA 6%, PNB 6% and YESBANK 5%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were HDIL -55, GODREJIND -5%, HINDZINC -4%, MERCATOR -4% and ABAN -4%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, RELIANCE, AXISBANK and HDIL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2400 CE, SBIN 2300 PE, SBIN 2500 CE, ICICIBANK 960 CE and SBIN 2200 PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5600 CE (7.41 LK) 5700 CE (4.74 LK) 5800 CE (3.02 LK) 6000 CE (3.59 LK) 6200 CE (1.50 LK) 4600 PE (1.25 LK) 4900 PE (2.92 LK) 5000 PE (8.54 LK) 5100 PE (4.96 LK) 5200 PE (10.86 LK) 5300 PE (7.37 LK) 5400 PE (2.86 LK) 5500 PE (6.40 LK) 5600 PE (1.80 LK) 5700 PE (2.41 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100 CE (2.77 LK) 5200 CE (2.45 LK) 5300 CE (1.24 LK) 5400 CE (2.40 LK) 5900 CE (3.49 LK) 4800 PE (2.45 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.62 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 5.39 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.80 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 32.28 Lk shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.29.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 13, 2012

Bullish Momentum: March 13, 2012

Nifty March Futures closed at 5468.40 up by 79.65 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10765.45 up by 77.60 points. Volumes were lower than yesterday and stood at 916 bn. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series was up by 4.34 lakh shares at 3.18 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio improved to 1.07 from 0.98 levels. Volatility as measured by India VIX was at 24.75 down by 6%. Dollar Rupee duo was trading slightly lower at 50.07 with downward bias. All in all atmosphere was conducive for Bulls in the market.

As said in several earlier posts, I maintain my stance that we are structurally in Bull market at least in medium term and this bullish momentum will take us to recent high of 5700 and if we are able to clear the same than probably new all time high. Two events namely RBI Policy and Budget that can have bearing on price behavior are in near future hence caution is advised to traders. In my opinion either trade in options market or alternatively buy protection against your futures positions. Those who are positional traders and are already long, my advice will be to hold positions with stop loss of 5175. or you can buy 5200 put option which was trading around 35 and wait till expiry.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were BOMDYEING 14%, GMRINFRA 12%, GODREJIND 11%, JETAIRWAYS 95 and LITL 9%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were BIOCON -6%, KFA -35, BHARATFORGE -2%, ONMOBILE -2% and WIPRO -2%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, RELIANCE, LT and HDIL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were RELIANCE 800 CE, SBIN 2400 CE, SBIN 2300 CE, SBIN 2500 CE and SBIN 2100 PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5500 CE (3.10 LK) 5700 CE (5.21 LK) 5800 CE (2.10 LK) 5900 CE (9.18 LK) 6400 CE (1.09 LK) 5200 PE (2.98 LK) 5400 PE (4.27 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5200 CE (1.35 LK) 5300 CE (1.27 LK) 4800 PE (8.72 LK) 4900 PE (7.14 LK) 5300 PE (6.04 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.90 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.47 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.51 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 49.78 Lk shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.13.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 12, 2012

Momentum Continues: March 12, 2012

Nifty March Futures closed at 5388.75 up by 24.60 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10687.85 up by 113.65 points. Volume was more or less same and stood at 926 bn. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series also didn’t saw much change and it improved by 1 lakh share and stood at 3.14 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio has gone below 1 and was trading at 0.98 from 1.11 level of previous closing.  Volatility as measured by India VIX was up by 3% at 26.27. Dollar Rupee duo was trading flat at 50.13. All in all momentum in the market was maintained but with caution.

In my opinion, structure of Nifty is good and momentum on upside will continue, at least that is what is purely reflected on charts. As you are aware that week is full of event so gyrations in the market will be there and we might witness volatility in price behavior in coming days. Cautious Optimism is the word of the week and my advice will be to trade in Options market or alternatively buy protection against your future positions. As long as we remain above 5175, chances are there we might witness the recent high of 5700 or even surpass the same.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were BFUTILITIES 12%, COLTAS 10%, BOMDYEING 7%, BHARATFORG 6% and EKC 6%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were FINANTECH -4%, ADANIPORTS -3%, POLARIS -3%, M&M -2% and ZEEL -2%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, RELIANCE, LT and HDIL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were RELIANCE 800 CE, SBIN 2400 CE, SBIN 2300 CE, SBIN 2500 CE and SBIN 2100 PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5400 CE (2.67 LK) 5500 CE (4.91 LK) 5600 CE (2.25 LK) 5700 CE (5.45 LK) 5800 CE (1.95 LK) 5900 CE (9.30 LK) 6400 CE (1.09 LK) 5000 PE (5.71 LK) 5100 PE (1 LK) 5200 PE (3.22 LK) 5400 PE (5.12 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5300 CE (1.03 LK) 4800 PE (8.50 LK) 4900 PE 91.11 LK) 5300 PE (4.94 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 3.39 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.22 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.09 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 89.54 Lk shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.14.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 9, 2012

Breakout Day: March 09, 2012

Nifty March Futures after consolidation on previous day opened with gap and smartly closed near the day’s high at 5364.15 up by 105.45 points. Bank Nifty too closed higher by 347.55 points at 10574.20. Volumes were lower than yesterday and stood at Rs 922 bn. Open Interest across all the pending series on consolidated basis was higher by 4.50 lakh shares at 3.13 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio too improved to 1.11 from 0.93. Volatility as measured by India VIX was down by 3% at 25.47 and Dollar Rupee duo was trading lower at 50.10 indicating strength in Rupee. All in all it was up day and Bulls were again back in the markets.

From the analysis of today’s data it seems that corrective pattern which started from higher levels has come to an end and we might resume up trend once again. As it was indicated several time in earlier posts that in extremely short term span we will move downwards but 5175 is a strong multiple support and to break 5175 is bit difficult. Today we have seen that low of 5201 which we saw yesterday was well supported by today’s price movement by strongly opening much higher than this level and even closing at day’s high. We saw some confidence coming back in the market as PCR has improved indicating participants were writing puts against calls or alternatively were squaring of in the money call options. Volatility too fell from yesterday’s level indicating strength in the market. Dollar Rupee also helped as we saw strengthening of Rupee against Dollar. All in all it seems that environment was favoring Bulls.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were INDIAINFO 11%, GVKPIL 10%, YESBANK 10%, LITL 9% and CESC 9%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were ADANIPORTS -8%, FINANTECH -6%, WIPRO -2%, RPOWER -2% and IGL -2%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were ICICIBANK, SBIN, TATASTEEL, LT and AXISBANK.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2300 CE, ICICIBANK 900 CE, SBIN 2400 CE, RELIANCE 800 CE and ICICIBANK 820 PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4800 PE (5.76 LK) 5200 PE (4.20 LK) 5300 PE (11.87 LK) 5400 PE (1.38 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100 CE (1.31 LK) 5200 CE (1.61 LK) 5300 CE (3.83 LK) 5400 CE (1.28 LK) 5500 CE (2.26 LK) 5700 CE (1.02 LK) 4600 PE (1.77 LK) 4700 PE (13.14 LK) 5100 PE (2.60 LK) 5500 PE (1.16 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 3.11 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.25 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.10 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 84.54 Lk shares. Put Call Ratio of Nifty in current series alone stands at 1.21.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 7, 2012

Day of Consolidation: March 7, 2012

Nifty March Futures closed at 5259.70 barely up by 8.30 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10226.65 up by 112 points. Volumes were lower than yesterday and stood at Rs.1.15 trillion. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series came down by 4.18 lakh shares as Nifty was taking support at 5200 levels and did not break even clues from overseas markets were weak. Put Call Ratio on consolidated basis across all series and both Options and Futures market stood at 0.93 indicating participants are expecting markets to fall or alternatively they are expecting that it will not go up in hurry and that is why they were busy writing Calls against Puts. Volatility as measured by India VIX was lower at 26.33 down by nearly 4% mainly due to very range bound movements of 80 points. Dollar Rupee duo was trading flat at 50.52 without much of change. All in all it was a day of consolidation though with cautious approach towards the market.

My analysis still remains the same. I still feel that Nifty will again try to test the level of 5175 in coming days. Once it trades around those levels for couple of days while not breaking the same will lead to end of the correction and resumption of uptrend. Mind you days ahead are full of event which have a potential to take markets anywhere so it is advisable to trade very cautiously or buy some protection in form of the options. In my opinion structure of Nifty is still bullish as long as it remains above 5175 as 5175 is 200 DMA and normally it is considered important support and resistance.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were POLARIS 9%, RAYMOND 7%, JPASSOCIAT 6%, UNITECH 6% and RPOWER 6%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were ADANIENT -9%, KFA -7%, IRB -5%, HINDPETRO -5% and STER -4%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATASTEEL, RELIANCE and DLF.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2300 CE, RELIANCE 820 CE, SBIN 2200 CE, RELIANCE 800 CE and SBIN 2400 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100 CE (2.37 LK) 5200 CE (5.26 LK) 5300 CE (8.91 LK) 5400 CE (5.05 LK) 5500 CE (3.17 LK) 5600 CE (6.02 LK) 4800 PE (3.81 LK) 4900 PE (1.42 LK) 5000 PE (5.37 LK) 5100 PE (2.06 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4100 PE (1.04 LK) 5300 PE (2.11 LK) 5400 PE (2.23 LK) 5600 PE (1.43 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 3.64 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.83 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 80.50 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 1.40 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.05.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 6, 2012

Weakness Persists: March 6, 2012

Nifty March Futures closed lower at 5250.40 down by 68.15 points amidst large swings in the market. Bank Nifty too closed lower at 10114.65 down by 126.55 points. Volumes were remarkably higher than yesterday. It stood at 1.65 trillion almost double from yesterday’s level. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series on consolidated basis too shot up by 25 lack shares and stood at 3.13 Cr shares. Bank Nifty too saw an increase in Open Interest. Volatility as measured by India VIX surprisingly came down by 5% at 27.84. Put Call Ratio improved to 1.09 from 0.95 levels. Volatility and PCR were the only factors which gave some comfort to participants but the drastic improvement in volume coupled with increase in Open Interest and that too on a decreasing price performance was definitely a cause of worry. All in all weakness in the market persisted and let us see how it behaves tomorrow.

My prognosis of last many days is again vindicated today as I am constantly writing that in short term span we are headed for lower close. As said in earlier post, some support existed at 5275 which we broke today and the next level of support is placed at 5175. I still hold the same view that we might visit 5175 levels but to close below this level on sustainable basis or for a couple of days is bit difficult in my opinion. If we find support at this level than structure of Nifty which seems to be bullish on medium to longer term time frame will not be vitiated. All this fall from higher level will be termed as good and healthy correction and uptrend will be resumed. In case if we don’t hold this level than we might have to rewrite the strategy. We will cross the bridge when we reach their.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were TITAN 3%, MCLEODRUSS 3%, DLF 3%, SIEMENS 3% and INDIANB 2%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were PANTALOONR -9%, BAJAJHIND -9%, NCC -8%, MTNL -8% and IVRCLINFRA -8%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, AXISBANK, DLF and TATASTEEL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2300 CE, SBIN 2400 CE, SBIN 2500 CE, SBIN 2000 PE and SBIN 2100 PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100 CE (1.75 LK) 5200 CE (3.14 LK) 5300 CE (4.26 LK) 5400 CE (6.56 LK) 5500 CE (3.67 LK) 5600 CE (2.64 LK) 5700 CE 93.64 LK) 5800 CE (1.28 LK) 5900 CE (2.49 LK) 4500 PE (1.33 LK) 4600 PE (1.75 LK) 4700 PE (9.07 LK) 4900 PE (4.98 LK) 5000 PE (13.73 LK) 5100 PE (3.22 LK) 5300 PE (2.88 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 6200 CE (-5.37 LK) 5400 PE (1.40 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 3.50 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.84 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 72.30 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 1.54 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.28.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 5, 2012

Weak Day: March 5, 2012

Nifty March Futures closed lower by 77.95 points at 5318.55. Bank Nifty too closed lower by 294.80 points at 10241.20. Volumes were not comparable with Saturday’s one hour trading but they were lower than Friday’s volume. Open Interest in Nifty futures across all the series went up by 9.37 lakh shares and stood at 2.87 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio was at 0.92 down from Friday’s level of 0.95 indicating fear in trading participants. Volatility as measured by India VIX shot up to 28.92 from 27.84 up by almost 3% from Friday’s level. Dollar Rupee pair was trading higher at 50.18. All in all it was a weak day and some amount of profit booking was witnessed in the market along with bears venturing fresh shorts in the market.

As said in yesterday’s post that we are heading for downward movement in shorter term span was vindicated today. In my opinion level of 5275 is a support area where we almost reached today and have bounced back from this level. If tomorrow we break this level on down side, we might witness 5175 which in my opinion is difficult to breach. My advice is to trade long around support zone as overall structure of Nifty is till bullish on medium to longer term perspective. God forbid if we breach 5175 decisively and close below this level for couple of day we might have to rewrite trading strategy, till that time trade long with strict stop loss or by buying adequate protection.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were RELINFRA 5%, RPOWER 5%, ZEEL 4%, BAJAJHIND 3% and TRIVENI 3%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were MCDOWELL -7%, SINTEX -7%, PANTALOONR -6%, FSL -6% and JPPOWER -6%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, RELINFRA, ICICIBANK, RELCAPITAL and DLF.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2300 CE, SBIN 2400 CE, RPOWER 150 CE, SBIN 2500 CE and RPOWER 140 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100 CE (1.90 LK) 5200 CE (3.82 LK) 5300 CE (8.07 LK) 5400 CE (4.89 LK) 5500 CE (4.40 LK) 5600 CE (4.53 LK) 5700 CE (3.44 LK) 5800 CE (2.30 LK) 5900 CE (1.03 LK) 6000 CE (1.30 LK) 6100 CE (1.05 LK) 6200 CE (4.91 LK) 4700 PE (2.60 LK) 4900 PE (3.63 LK) 5000 PE (9.51 LK) 5100 PE (7.30 LK) 5200 PE (9.96 LK) 5300 PE (3.49 LK0 5400 PE (1.76 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5700 PE (1.91 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 3.10 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.26 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 96.54 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 94.38 Lk shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.28.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 2, 2012

Lackluster Day: March 2, 2012

Nifty March Futures closed absolutely flat at 5391.50 up by just 1 point. Bank Nifty closed higher at 10512.30 up by 127.55 points. Volumes were lower than yesterday and stood at 83 k Cr. Open Interest too saw a increase by just 1.12 lk shares at 2.78 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio further came down to 0.95 from 0.98 levels. Volatility as measured by India VIX was up by 1% at 27.84. Dollar Rupee pair too was trading higher at 49.81 marginally up from yesterday’s level. To sum up lower volumes coupled with lackluster Open Interest, lower Put Call Ratio and increased volatility indicates participants have become extremely cautious in the market perhaps due to series of events pending in days ahead in this expiry.

My prognosis remains unchanged. Data mentioned above indicates in short term we are heading for lower levels but extreme caution suggest we might not fall drastically and perhaps find support at 5275 or if fall extends further than at 5175. Long term structure of Nifty is bullish and it is advisable to use such fall as an opportunity to build up bullish positions. If markets take support at indicated levels and bounces back, it has potential to create a new high in coming days. Buy protections by buying Options or trade in Options market only so that loss can be restricted.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were AUROPHARMA 7%, ZEEL 5%, IRB 5%, MAX 4% and ALOKTEXT 4%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were MPHASIS -10%, DLF -5%, JINDALSWHL -5%, HDIL -5% and JUBLFOOD -5%

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, DLF, ICICIBANK, AXISBANK and LT.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2300 CE, SBIN 2400 CE, SBIN 2200 PE, DLF 220 CE and SBIN 2100 PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5400 CE (2.07 LK) 5500 CE (1.12 LK) 5700 CE (2 LK) 4700 PE (2.84 LK) 4800 PE (1.83 LK) 5000 PE (5.33 LK) 5100 PE (2.59 LK) 5200 PE (3.22 LK) 5300 PE (3.66 LK) 5400 PE (2.39 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5900 CE (-1.63 LK) 6500 CE (-1.56 LK) 5500 PE (-1.56 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.83 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.02 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 82.84 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 97.28 LK shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.36.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: March 1, 2012

 A Weak Day: March 1, 2012

Nifty March Futures closed lower at 5390.75 down by 48.75 points. Bank Nifty closed lower at 10384.75 down by 135.05 points. Volumes were lower on almost all front i.e. both Futures and Options segment of the market, in fact it was 97 lakh Cr. Open Interest in Nifty across all the open series came down by 2.30 lakh shares at 2.77 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio too came down and closed at 0.98 substantially down from yesterday’s level. It indicates participants are weary about the market and are worried to write puts as they might expect markets to drift lower. Volatility as measured by India VIX shot up by 3% to 27.63 which too indicates jitters in market. Dollar Rupee pair was trading higher at 49.53. To say the least, there was worried sentiment and participants are expecting markets to fall.

As said in yesterday’s post my stand is almost vindicated that we in a very short term we are heading for lower levels. We might find support at 5275 and God forbid if break those levels probably 5175. To fall below 5175 seems to be bit difficult as it coincides with long term averages and medium to long term structure of Nifty is bullish. If we hold on this levels for few days probability of Nifty making a new high in coming months is very much on anvil. Mind you there are series of events in this month so trade cautiously or buy protection by buying options.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were SUZLON 11%, RELCAPITAL 5%, MARUTI 5%, DISHTV 5% and MTNL 4%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were UNIPHOS -9%, HEXAWARE -7%, DLF -6%, BGRENERGY -5% and INDIANB -5%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were DLF, SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATASTEEL and HDIL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2300 CE, SUZLON 30 CE, SBIN 2200 PE, DLF 200 PE and SBIN 2400 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5300 CE (4.08 LK) 5400 CE (7.61 LK) 5500 CE (4.02 LK) 5600 CE (6.27 LK) 5700 CE (1.41 LK) 5800 CE (2.39 LK) 5900 CE (5.52 LK) 6000 CE (7.80 LK) 6500 CE (1.70 LK) 4700 PE (4.62 LK) 5000 PE (5.22 LK) 5100 PE (2.27 LK) 5300 PE (3.69 LK) 5400 PE (1.59 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4800 PE (4.29 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.86 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.91 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 83.24 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 1.05 Lk shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.33.

Happy Trading 

Atul Doshi