Derivatives Daily Update: 31 January 2012

Reversal of Downtrend: January 31, 2012

Nifty February Futures after opening stronger continued its strength and wiped out entire loss of yesterday’s movement. It closed up by 111.20 points at 5223.35. Bank Nifty too saw complete turn around and it managed to close 402 points up at 9952.45. Volumes were higher than yesterday in both Futures & Option segments of the market. Open Interest in Nifty across all the three series was up by 11.07 lk shares. Bank Nifty too saw an upsurge in Open Interest by 1.38 lk shares. Put Call Ratio on consolidated basis across all the series and both Stocks & Index options was lower at 0.89 from 1.07 level of yesterday. Volatility as measured by India VIX was down by 3% at 22.66 and Dollar Rupee pair was marginally down at 49.78. In all there was a complete reversal of yesterday’s down trend and both the Indices marched there advances further.

As told yesterday, Nifty is consolidating between 5050-5250 zone and has managed to close above 5220. If strength continues tomorrow than we can fairly conclude that we have broken on higher side and hence we might see rise of 5 to 10 % from 5220 levels with some hurdle at 5402. One who is long should continue with their positions with stop placed below 5140 which is 200 DEMA.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were TATAGLOBAL 11%, IVRCLINFRA 9%, HAVELLS 9%, DELTACORP 9% and NCC 8%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were CROMGREAV -3%, COALINDIA -2%, ESSAROIL -2%, JSWENERGY -2% and SIEMENS -2%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were ICICIBANK, SBIN, TATASTEEL, LT and RELIANCE.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were ICICIBANK 900 CE, ICICIBANK 880 CE, SBIN 2100 CE, ICICIBANK 920 CE and ICICIBANK 860 PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5300 CE (5.82 LK) 5400 CE (4.94 LK) 5500 CE (3.79 LK) 5600 CE (2.71 LK) 4700 PE (3.79 LK) 4900 PE (4.95 LK) 5000 PE (9.69 LK) 5100 PE (12.19 LK) 5200 PE (13.16 LK) 5300 PE (1.62 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100 CE (-3.07 lk) 5200 ce (-1.19 lk)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 1.48 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.97 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.42 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 24.22 Lk shares.

                                           

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 30 January 2012

Day of Consolidation or End of Rally?: January 30, 2012

Nifty after opening weaker failed to garner support from Bulls and gave away all its gain of 2 days. It closed at 5112.10 down by 100.70 points. Bank Nifty too closed lower at 9549.55 down by 244.40 points. Yesterday too we witnessed some profit booking in Bank Nifty and today also it dropped and in process dragged Nifty to lower levels. Volumes were higher than yesterday on both Options and Futures segments. Open Interest in Nifty Futures came down by 17.98 lakh shares to 2.37 Cr shares which reflects Bull unwinding or profit booking. Put Call Ratio too came down to 1.07 from 1.21 indicating Call Writing happening instead of Put Writing. Volatility as measured by India VIX shot up by 8% to 23.46. Dollar Rupee pair too was trading stronger at 50 up from yesterday’s level. In nutshell profit booking was witnessed in market as markets were not sustaining at higher levels.

Today Nifty February Futures gave away all its gain which it accumulated in last 2 days. As Nifty has not managed to cross and stay above its 200 DMA, I feel that it will consolidate between 5050 & 5250. Once it breaks on either side momentum will gather in the direction of breakout. In short term my advice is to accumulate in dips with stop below 5050 on closing basis. In longer term Nifty needs to break falling trend line joining multiple tops which is positioned at 5220 on closing basis. Once it clears that zone decisively we will trade in to new territory which might give an upside of 5 to 10 % from 5220.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were JINDALSWHL 11%, JUBLFOOD 5%, STRTECH 4%, HAVELLS 4% and MRF 3%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were BHEL -11%, EKC -10%, JISLJAL -9%, BGRENERGY -9% and SKUMARSYNF -9%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, RELIANCE, LICHSGFIN and TATASTEEL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2100 CE, RELIANCE 820 CE, RELIANCE 840 CE, SBIN 1900 PE and SBIN 2000 PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100 CE ( 2.49 LK) 5200 CE (6.57 LK) 5300 CE (11.52 LK) 5400 CE (8.82 LK) 5500 CE (1.89 LK) 4600 PE (5.47 LK) 4700 PE (7.11 LK) 4800 PE (1.19 LK) 4900 PE (4.88 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100 PE (-1.71 LK) 5200 PE (-6.12 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 1.83 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.43 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 99 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 40.54 Lk shares.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 27 January 2012

Good Beginning: January 27, 2012

Nifty February Series started with a bang. It rose 51.4 points and closed at 5212.80. On the very first day of new series it made a higher top higher bottom formation which is a good sign. On the contrary Bank Nifty witnessed profit booking and it closed lower by 62 points at 9793.95. Volumes were better but obviously it is not comparable with yesterday as yesterday was an expiry. Open Interest too saw reasonable up tick. Put Call Ratio too improved to 1.21 from 1.03 levels which indicates confidence in the market and positive bias. Volatility as measured by India VIX was up by 3% to 21.70. Dollar Rupee pair was trading lower at 49.65 which again is good sign for Equity. In substance, it was a good beginning.

My prognosis remains bullish, at least in shorter term as markets are making newer highs and achieving all possible bullish targets. As said in earlier posts it crossed 5135 which was a difficult target and after that it even managed to touch 200 DMA which is placed at 5218. If Nifty is able to stay above its 200 DMA, probability of markets moving at least 5 to 10 % from this level is very bright. If in case it fails to move above this level in couple of days, it will consolidate between 5050 & 5200 and than might attempt to break the levels on either side. January series saw a increase of 585 points from the low of 4592 to 5177, let us see what February series have in offing.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were TRIVENI 12%, GVKPIL 10%, PRAJIND 9%, ROLTA 8% and ARVIND 8%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were RANBAXY -7%, GESHIP -7%, IVRCLINFRA -6%, WELCORP -5% and ADANIPOWER -5%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were RELIANCE, SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATASTEEL and TATAMOTORS.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were RELIANCE 820 CE, SBIN 2100 CE, RELIANCE 840 CE, RELIANCE 800 CE and SBIN 2200 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5200 CE (1.12 LK) 5300 CE (10.10 LK) 5400 CE (10.15 LK) 5500 CE (4.20 LK) 5600 CE (2.40 LK) 5700 CE (1.34 LK) 4700 PE (-10.02 LK) 4800 PE (4.81 LK) 4900 PE (6.44 LK) 5000 PE (9.71 LK) 5100 PE (10.40 LK) 5200 PE (11.90 LK) 5300 PE (1.60 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4800 CE (-63 TH) 5100 CE (-91 TH)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 1.06 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.50 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.42 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 22.02 Lk shares.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

                                            

Derivatives Daily Update: 25 January 2012

Strong Expiry: January 25, 2012

Nifty January Futures managed to close strong at 5161.40 up by 40.95 points. Bank Nifty too closed at 9856 up by 19 points. Volumes were slightly lower than yesterday. Open Interest in Nifty Futures on consolidated basis saw reduction by 2.35 lk shares. Put Call Ratio was at 1.03. Volatility as measured by India VIX was at 21.02 marginally down from yesterday’s level. Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 50.09 fairly steady with downward bias. All in all it was a bullish day and Expiry too was very resilient with upward bias.

As said in yesterday’s post, as we have closed stronger, there is a strong possibility that we will touch 5225 which is 200 DMA in coming sessions. Those who are long should continue to hold with price objective of 5225.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were MCDOWELL 17%,  SCI 12%, GESHIP 10%, TTML 9% and AUROPHARMA 9%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were 3IINFOTECH -6%, VIDEOIND -5%, ADANIPORTS -4%, COREEDUTEC -3% and APIL -3%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, RELIANCE, ICICIBANK, AXISBANK and TATASTEEL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were RELIANCE 800 CE, SBIN 2050 CE, SBIN 2100 CE, SBIN 2050 PE and INFY 2650 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5200 CE (53.57 LK) 5100 PE (55.20 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4600 CE (-1.85 LK) 4700 CE (-2.87 LK) 4800 CE (-1.91 LK) 4900 CE (-8.32 LK) 5000 CE (-10.21 LK) 5300 CE (-2.18 LK) 4300 PE (-1.81 LK) 4500 PE (-1.27 LK) 4600 PE (-1.80 LK) 4700 PE 9-2.01 LK) 4800 PE (-1.76 LK) 4900 PE (-2..33 LK) 5200 PE (-4.43 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 1.68 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 6.05 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 56.80 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 7.29 Lk shares.

                                           

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 24 January 2012

Breakout Day: January 24, 2012

Nifty January Futures closed up by 69.40 at 5120.45 after making a high of 5149.50 on intra day basis. Bank Nifty too closed up by 302.65 points at 9837. Volumes were obviously higher, in fact almost double than yesterday due to improved sentiment as well as rollover. Open Interest on consolidated basis across all the three open series saw increase by 13.42 lakh shares. Put Call Ratio too increased from yesterday’s level of 1.23 to 1.27. Volatility as measured by India VIX was down by 3 % at 21.42. Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 50.09 bit lower from yesterday’s level. In all it was Bull’s Day and on intra day basis we broke the resistance level of 5135 which I was constantly talking about in my earlier posts.

Nifty managed to cross resistance zone of 5135 on intra day basis though it has not closed above this level. In any case if we don’t give up tomorrow in a big way and trade around this levels for couple of days than I feel we might approach 5225 which is 200 DMA. Those who were holding long positions with target of 5135 achieved their profit objective today. Those who are still holding their long should exit below 5030 or at a revised price objective of 5225.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were ESSAROIL 16%, JINDALSWHL 13%, IVRCLINFRA 11%, JSWENERGY 11% and CANBK 10%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were MCDOWELL -3%, DISHTV -2%, WELCORP -2%, GRASIM -2% and AREVAT&D -2%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, AXISBANK, ICICIBANK, RELIANCE and LT.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2000 CE, SBIN 2050 CE, SBIN 1900 PE, SBIN 1950 PE and RELIANCE 800 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5000 CE (8.14 LK) 5100 CE (16.50 LK) 5200 CE (6.06 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4700 CE (1.54 LK) 4800 CE (2.38 LK) 4900 CE (6.55 LK) 5000 CE (18.60 LK) 5100 CE (13.97 LK) 5400 CE (1.88 LK) 4100 PE (2.38 LK) 4300 PE (1.39 LK) 4400 PE (1.14 LK) 4500 PE (2.15 LK) 4600 PE (1.21 LK) 4700 PE (5.16 LK) 4800 PE (5.10 LK) 4900 PE (12.85 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 1.19 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 5.73 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.29 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 17.70 Lk shares.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi.

Derivatives Daily Update: 23 January 2012

Listless Day: January 23, 2012

Nifty January Futures after opening weaker trade extremely in a narrow range for a day and closed at 5051.05 up by 3 .2 points. Bank Nifty too after trading in a small range closed up by 43.55 points at 9534.35. Volumes were lower than yesterday instead of fact that we are nearing expiry. Normally volume tends to be higher due to rollover. Open Interest in Nifty Futures across all the series was higher by 14.50 lakh shares on the days nearing expiry. Put Call Ratio was at 1.23 up from yesterday’s level. Volatility as measured by India VIX inched up higher by 1% at 22.14. Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 50.15. In all it was a listless day and movement in Individual stocks where Q3 results were coming saw some traction in activity.

My prognosis is still tilted towards markets inching up bit higher till expiry, probably towards 5135 levels but how it pans out in February series will have to be watched more closely and carefully. As said in yesterday’s post, possibility of market going in to consolidation phase is more likely as Volatility has come down much below its averages and it might retaliate and move towards its mean. If Nifty fails to clear resistance zone of 5125-5150 level and retraces back with vengeance, probability of making a new low still exist. Let us see what February Futures has in offing in coming days.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were JSWENERGY 9%, JISLJAL 7%, SUZLON 6%, MARUTI 6% and GUJFLUORO 5%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were STER -6%, ADNIPORTS -6%, RUCHISOYA -5%, MCDOWELL -5% and TULIP -5%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were LT, RELIANCE, SBIN, DLF and AXISBANK.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were RELIANCE 800 CE, LT 1300 CE, RELIANCE 780 CE, LT 1200 PE and LT 1250 PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4900 CE (5.30 LK) 5000 CE (1.82 LK) 5100 CE (6.13 LK) 5200 CE (10.81 LK) 4900 PE (9.51 LK) 5000 PE (9.52 LK) 5100 PE (3.20 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4800 CE (-3.73 LK) 4600 PE (-1.33 LK) 4700 PE (-2.52 LK) 4800 PE (-3.34 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 1.90 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 5.64 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.21 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 41 Lk shares.

                                           

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 20 January 2012

Another Bulls Day: January 20, 2012

Nifty January Futures after opening on stronger note continued with its strength and closed higher by 25.80 points at 5047.85. Bank Nifty too closed higher by 289.15 points at 9490.80. Both the Indices made higher top higher bottom formation today. Volumes were higher on both Futures and Options segments partly due to improved activity and partly due to rollover. Open Interest increased by whooping 31.79 lk shares at 3.14 Cr shares across all the series. Bank Nifty too saw a surge in Open Interest by 3.47 lk shares. Put Call Ratio on consolidated basis across all series and for both Index Options and Stock Options stood at 1.18. Volatility as measured by India VIX was ruling fairly steady at 21.96 up by 1%. Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 50.47. In all it was a day of Bull giving hopes that Expiry will be better.

We are in a short term uptrend which might allow Nifty to touch 5135 levels as all probable indicators are suggesting that, but if we observe from conservative perspective than it seems that there is collective conviction and optimism among the market participants that we are headed for higher levels which in itself may turn negative for market. If we observe some data like Put Call Ratio for Nifty current series it is at 1.99 as against 1.09 at the start of series. Similarly Volatility is at its lowest level of 21.96 as against 27 levels at the start of the series. There is always a chance of mean reversal that is we might correct from this level towards the mean and this process might once again send us in to consolidation phase. So my advice is to keep your eyes open and any signs of such reversal should be used to exit from longs. Mind you, I am not suggesting that this will happen but I am just warning you to remain vigilant.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were IVRCLINFRA 11%, IBREALEST 9%, SUZLON 8%, ORCHIDCHEM 8% and DHANBANK 7%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were ADANIENT -9%, SUNTV -6%, EDUCOMP -6%, JETAIRWAYS -5% and KSOILS-5%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were ICICIBANK, AXISBANK, SBIN, RELIANCE and TATASTEEL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were RELIANCE 800 CE, RELIANCE 780 PE, RELIANCE 760 PE RELIANCE 780 CE and AXISBANK 1000 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5200 CE (4.59 LK) 4400 PE (3.02 LK) 4700 PE (1.39 LK) 4900 PE (6.36 LK) 5000 PE (19.05 LK) 5100 PE (13.67 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4700 CE (-1.79 LK) 4800 CE (-3.94 LK) 4900 CE (-4.72 LK) 5000 CE (-3.57 LK) 5100 CE (2.65 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 1.27 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 5.70 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.80 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 41.36 Lk shares.

                                           

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 19 January 2012

Bulls on Top: January 19, 2012

Nifty January Futures after opening strong remained strong through out the day and even closed stronger at 5022.05 up by 64.55 points. Bank Nifty too opened on a stronger note and closed stronger at 9201.65 up by 175.25 points. Volumes were higher on both Futures and Options segments of the market. Open Interest in Nifty Futures across all the series on consolidated basis was up by 15.56 lakh shares. Put Call Ratio too was up at 1.23 indicating strength in the markets as participants were busy writing Puts as against Calls. Volatility as measured by India VIX too was down by 4% at 21.68. Dollar Rupee pair was also trading lower at 50.45. All in all it was a day of Bull and we saw accumulation in positions on longer side.

As expressed in several earlier posts we are fast approaching level of 5050-5100. Once we reach there one should review his long positions as this is a resistance zone and if not decisively crossed might give a way for a fall. But as long as it holds 4850 level one should continue to hold with stop below 4850.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were ADANIENT 11%, VIPIND 11%, RELINFRA 10%, HDIL 10% and PANTALOON 9%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were DCHL -4%, LICHSGFIN -4%, RAYMOND -3%, IDEA -3% and BHEL -3%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, RELIANCE, ICICIBANK, TATASTEEL and RELCAPITAL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were RELIANCE 800 CE, RELIANCE 780 PE, DLF 210 CE, SBIN 1900 CE and RELIANCE 800 PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5200 CE (2.89 LK) 5300 CE (2.01 LK) 4800 PE (5.55 LK) 4900 PE (5.19 LK) 5000 PE (16.53 LK) 5100 PE (3.17 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4800 CE (-3.42 LK) 4900 CE (-7.45 LK) 5000 CE (-9.11 LK) 5100 CE (2.29 LK) 4100 PE (-1.27 LK) 4200 PE (-2.58 LK) 4500 PE (-1.85 LK) 4600 PE (-1.50 LK) 4700 PE (-8.07 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 1.80 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 5.52 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.49 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 29.53 Lk shares.

                                           

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 18.01.2012

Day of Consolidation: January 18, 2012

Nifty January Futures pretty much traded in a band of 50 Rs. It closed at 4957.5 down by 19.5 points. Bank Nifty closed at 9026.40 down by 52.05 points. Volumes were overall lower than yesterday though we saw upsurge in volumes of individual stock futures probably due to results and might be some roll over. Open Interest in Nifty futures across all the series came down by 6.88 lakh shares and that in January Futures came down by 14 lakh shares indicating some profit booking or bull unwinding as happened in the markets. Put Call Ratio marginally came down to 1.13 from 1.16 level indicating sustained confidence in the market. Volatility as measured by India VIX was almost unchanged at 22.68 again instilling confidence in the market. Dollar Rupee pair too was trading lower at 50.65 in January Futures which is again a good sign.

Analysis of data reveals confidence in the market. In short term as long as Nifty is trading above 4850 level it is advisable to hold on your longs for profit objective of 5100 with stop below 4850. In long term though we are not completely out of woods and 5135 is crucial level to cross. If Nifty doesn’t move above 5135 in coming days, chances are there that we might make a new low which may be placed below 4550 levels. So let us watch price movements and other indicators very closely in coming days till expiry.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were BOMDYEING 10%, ADANIENT 8%, DELTACORP 7%, AREVAT&D 4% AND RELIANCE 4%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were ESSAROIL -12%, VOLTAS -11%, EKC -9%, KSOILS -8% and STRTECH -8%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were RELIANCE, SBIN, TCS, ICICIBANK and TATASTEEL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were TCS 1100 CE, RELIANCE 800 CE, RELIANCE 780 CE, TCS 1150 CE and TCS 1050 PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5000 CE (1.92 LK) 5100 CE (8.49 LK) 4300 PE (2.82 LK) 4700 PE (8.26 LK) 4800 PE (7.83 LK) 4900 PE (9.19 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4700 CE (-1.48 LK) 4800 CE (-1.66 LK) 4900 CE (-1.70 LK) 5200 CE (-2.17 LK) 5000 PE (-3.42 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.51 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 5.36 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.08 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 53.32 Lk shares.

                                           

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 17.01.2012

Bulls Day: January 17, 2012

Nifty January Futures after opening strong continued its upward journey making higher top higher bottom and finally closing at 4977 up by 85.90 points. Bank Nifty too followed the trend and closed at 9078.45 up by 116.85 points. Volumes were higher than yesterday on both Futures and Options segment of the market. Substantial up tick was seen in Open Interest in January Futures by 20.42 lakh shares at 2.73 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio too was marvelously up at 1.16 from 0.96. Volatility as measured by India VIX was at 22.61 down by 6%. Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 50.95 in January Futures. All in all it was a day of Bull.

Analysis of data rules in favor of Bulls. Put Call Ratio figures indicate lot of In the Money call unwinding and Out of the Money put writing which indicates market players are gaining confidence and expecting Nifty to move higher from this levels which again is supported by reduced volatility, increased volumes and increased Open Interest. If global markets close better today, there are fair chance we might cross 5000 levels tomorrow and inch upwards towards a resistance zone of 5100-5150. My advise is to hold on your longs till this resistance area and watch whether Nifty is able to break this resistance or not.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were MARUTI 10%, JETAIRWAYS 10%, HDIL 7%, VOLTAS 7% and JUBLFOOD 6%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were ESSAROIL -10%, TRIVENI -5%, CHAMBLFERT -4%, DISHTV -4% and BALRAMCHIN -4%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were RELIANCE, SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATASTEEL and TATAMOTORS.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were RELIANCE 740 CE, TCS 1100 PE, TCS 1150 CE, RELIANCE 760 CE and SBIN 1900 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5000 CE (3.06 LK) 5100 CE (12.68 LK) 5200 CE (3.66 LK) 5300 CE (1.14 LK) 4800 PE (8.32 LK) 4900 PE (27.61 LK) 5000 PE (15.51 LK) 5100 PE (4.79 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4500 CE (-1.41 LK) 4600 CE (-1.57 LK) 4700 CE (-4.81 LK) 4800 CE (-6.26 LK) 4900 CE (-7.58 LK) 4300 PE (-1.15 LK) 4400 PE (-2.24 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.50 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 5.19 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.18 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 58.86 Lk shares.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 16.01.2012

Resilient Day: January 16, 2012

Nifty January Futures after opening weaker saw some strength at the end and managed to close above by 12.90 points at 4891.10. Bank Nifty too managed to close above by 3 points at 8961.60 points. Volumes on both Futures and Options market were lower than yesterday. Open Interest was also flat with almost no change. Put Call Ratio too came down bit lower at 0.96. Volatility as measured by India VIX was up by 3% at 24.57. All in all it was a day of consolidation with upward bias.

My prognosis remains unchanged. As long as Nifty manages top remain above 4665, it has a chance to touch 4906, 5050 and 5135. Beyond 5135 it seems bit difficult looking to long term trajectory of price behavior as also historical movements of price in Nifty. My advise is to hold on your longs till 5050- 5100 level with stop below 4665 and if you could take bit larger risk than 4550.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were ADANIENT 10%, ABAN 10%, HINDOILEXP 7%, JSWISPAT 7% and BATAINDIA 5%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were IGL -7%, DELTACORP -5%, HOTELEELA -4% RPOWER -3% and JISLJAL -3%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATASTEEL, RELIANCE and TATAMOTORS.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 1800 CE, INFY 2700 CE, TATASTEEL 420 CE, SBIN 1700 PE and SBIN 1850 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4900 CE (3.17 LK) 5000 CE (1.98 LK) 5100 CE (1.89 LK) 4600 PE (3.85 LK) 4700 PE (2.97 LK) 4800 PE (9.37 LK) 4900 PE (4.41 LK) 5000 PE (1.46 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5500 CE (-1.11 LK) 4500 PE (-1.67 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.87 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.65 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 85.97 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 70.08 Lk shares.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 13.01.2012

Another Good Day: January 13, 2012.

Nifty January Futures closed up by 26 points at 4878.20. Bank Nifty almost closed flat at 8958.60 up by 0.90 points. Both the indices have made higher top higher bottom. Volumes were more or less stable with Stock Futures and Index Options showing a up tick in volumes. Open Interest in Nifty Futures across all the series was higher by 7.97 lac shares showing mop up by Bulls. Bank Nifty too saw an upsurge in Open Interest by 1.48 lac shares. Put Call Ratio was at 1.02 fairly better than yesterday showing confidence of traders as they wrote more Puts than Calls. Volatility as measured by India VIX was down 2% at 23.48, again a good sign as it shows improved confidence in market. Dollar Rupee pair too was down trading at 51.75 again a very good sign for Bulls.

In nutshell, it was a good day with upsurge in price behavior coupled with increased volume & open interest and decreased volatility. In short term it seems that we might see level of 5020 and with God’s grace 5135 if we manage to cross 4906 on closing basis in couple of days. In long term it seems difficult that we will cross 5135 on sustainable basis. My advise is to buy every dip with stop below 4665 and price objective of 5020.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were JSWISPAT 13%, LITL 12%, JPPOWER 11%, MERCATOR 11% and SUZLON 10%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were IGL -9%, PETRONET -5%, SUNTV -4%, UNIPHOS -3% and GAIL -3%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were TATASTEEL, ICICIBANK, INFY, RELIANCE and SBIN.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were INFY 2700 CE, SBIN 1800 CE, INFY 2600 CE, INFY 2800 CE and DLF 200 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5000 CE (1.03 LK) 5200 CE (3.39 LK) 4700 PE (7.94 LK) 4800 PE (12.88 LK) 4900 PE (5.73 LK) 5000 PE (1.11 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4100 PE (-1.17 LK) 4200 PE (-1.29 LK) 4400 PE (-1.81 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.89 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.57 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 88.52 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 65.33 Lk shares.

Individual Stocks which saw substantial rise in Open Interest were PETRONET 70%, IGL 43%, PATNI 30%, JPPOWER 27% and ARVIND 26%.

Individual Stocks which saw substantial decrease in Open Interest were OIL -33 %, MCDOWELL -21%, VIPIND -17%, CESC -14% and IOB -14%.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 12.01.2012

Another Day of Consolidation: January 12, 2012

Nifty January Futures closed at 4852.20 down by 20.15 points. Bank Nifty closed at 8957.70 up by 101.85 points. Volumes were substantially higher than yesterday both in Index Futures and Options as well as Stock Futures and Stock Options. Put Call Ratio was ay 0.92 down from yesterday’s level of 0.95. Volatility as measured by India VIX was at 24.03 down by 2%. Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 51.86. Open Interest saw increase of 2.56 lakh shares in Nifty Futures across all the series and Bank Nifty saw decrease in Open Interest by 38 k shares. All in all it was another day of consolidation with upward bias in short term.

In nutshell, today too it was a day of consolidation with a narrow range of price movements. My prognosis remains the same as expressed in yesterday’s post. As long as Nifty remains above 4665 and stretching it bit further above 4550, all the dips needs to be bought in. Today also we witnessed some buying interest when Nifty went down to 4820 levels and it closed at 4870. For long term traders and those who are still holding their shorts from higher level, 5135 is the stop. Even 5135 should hold on sustainable basis as it too coincides with 200 DMA of 5150. So this range of 5125-5175 is going to be extremely crucial and one would face good amount of supply at those level. But in shorter term buy in to every dip or add to your positions when Nifty crosses and closes above 4906.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were INFY, SBIN, ICICIBANK, AXISBANK and HDFC.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were INFY 2800 CE, INFY 2700 C E INFY 2900 CE INFY 3000 CE and INFY 2700 PE.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were TRIVENI 15%, VIPIND 9%, RENUKA 8%, GMRINFRA 7% and LITL 7%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were INFY -8%, TTKPRESTIG -8%, BIOCON -5%, BATAINDIA -4% and TECHM -4%.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4800 CE (3.78 LK) 4900 CE (3.80 LK) 5000 CE (7.60 LK) 4100 PE (2.47 LK) 4700 PE (4.40 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4400 PE (-6.08 LK) 4800 PE (-1.60 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.94 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.48 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 91.66 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 58.75 Lk shares.

Individual Stocks which saw increase in Open Interest were OILINDIA (75%) TTK (47%) INFOSYS (33%) VOLTAS (32%) SUNTV (23%)

Individual Stocks which saw increase in Open Interest were UNITEDSPIRIT (-23%) JAINIRRI (-10%) NCC (-9%) PNB (-8%) STERLITE (-6%)

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 11.01.2012

Consolidation Day: January 11, 2012

Nifty January Futures closed at 4872.35 up by 2.05 points and Bank Nifty closed at 8855.85 up by 95.9 points. Today both indices traded pretty much in narrow range. Volumes in Index Futures and Options were lower than yesterday and Stock Futures and Option saw an increase in volumes. Open Interest in Nifty Futures on consolidated basis across all the series saw increase of 1.66 lk shares and that of Bank Nifty saw a decrease of 1.30 lk shares. Put Call Ratio was at 1 without much change. Volatility as measured by India VIX was 24.54 up by 2%. Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 52.13 after making a low of 51.75. All in all it was a day of consolidation with upward bias.

In nutshell, in shorter term we are on upward trajectory and any fall till 4665 and bit longer at 4550 level needs to be bought in. In longer term we are still not out of woods and 4906, 5020 and 5135 are stiff resistance and any long term upward move can be confirmed only when we are able to trade above 5135 comfortably on sustainable basis. So advice is to keep strict stops and buy any fall or alternatively if Nifty crosses 4906.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, DLF, RELIANCE, ICICIBANK and INFY.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were INFY 3000 CE, INFY 2900 CE, INFY 2800 PE, INFY 2700 PE and SBIN 1800 CE.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were HDIL 13%, KSOILS 12%, ADANIPOWER 12%, ADANIENT 10% and IBREALEST 10%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were GVKPIL -3%, INDIANBANK -3%, EDUCOMP -3%, POWERGRID -3% and TCS -3%.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4900 CE (10.52 LK) 5000 CE (7.49 LK) 5100 CE (5.08 LK) 5200 CE (1.06 LK) 5300 CE (1/05 LK) 4000 PE (3.85 LK) 4100 PE (2.30 LK) 4400 PE (3.09 LK) 4500 PE (2.72 LK) 4600 PE (3.03 LK) 4700 PE (4.58 LK) 4800 PE (6.26 LK) 4900 PE (4.35 LK) 5000 PE (1.41 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4700 CE (-1.21 LK) 4300 PE (-3.28 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.92 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.61 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 90.76 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 60.55 Lk shares.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 10.01.2012

Bulls Day: January 10, 2012

Today was Bulls Day. Nifty after opening stronger continued with its bull ride and closed at 4870.30 up by 118.50 points. Bank Nifty too followed the trend and closed at 8759.95 up by 313.70 points. Volumes were beautifully higher than yesterday both in Futures & Options markets. Open Interest in Nifty Futures across all series was high by whooping 18.85 lk shares. Put Call Ratio too improved to 0.98 from yesterday’s level. Volatility as measured by India VIX was down by 7% to 24. Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 51.95 weak from yesterday’s level.

From perusal of data it seems that it was a perfect day for Bulls. Positive price movement coupled with increase in Open Interest, higher volumes, .reduced volatility and weak dollar all in a single day could be the best bull case scenario that even hard core bull would not have anticipated. It seems that short term bull scenario will play in the market which might take us to level of 4900 and there after to 5070 but it will be difficult to surpass 5135. Till that time ride the bull wave with trailing stops.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, DLF, RELIANCE, ICICIBANK and TATASTEEL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 1700 CE, SBIN 1750 CE, RELIANCE 740 CE, SBIN 1800 CE and DLF 190 CE.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were 3IINFOTECH 15%, IRB 11%, JSWSTEEL 10% IVRCLINFRA 10% and SINTEX 10%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were DISHTV -2%, GUJFLUORO -1% BALRAMCHIN -1% ASIANPAINT -1% and RANBAXY -1%.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4900 CE (2.39 LK) 5000 CE (8 LK) 5100 CE (5.10 LK) 5200 CE (5.79 LK) 4400 PE (5.19 LK) 4500 PE (3.56 LK) 4600 PE (12/61 LK) 4700 PE (12.92 LK) 4800 PE (24.54 LK) 4900 PE  (7.41 LK) 5000 PE (3.71 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4500 CE (1.24 LK) 4600 CE (-2.37 LK) 4700 CE (-4.11 LK) 4800 CE (-5.25 LK) 4300 PE (-8.55 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.72 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.50 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 95.45 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 55.52 Lk shares.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 09 January 2012

Listless Day: January 09, 2012

Amidst swing of nearly 75 points Nifty closed lower by 8.2 points at 4751.80. Bank Nifty too closed lower by 8.2 points at 8446.25. Volumes were lower compared to Friday. Open Interest in Nifty Futures across all the series came down by 3 lk shares. Put Call Ratio was 0.84 lower from Friday’s level. Volatility as measured by India VIX was almost unchanged at 25.68. Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 52.80. All in all it was a directionless market though choppiness was witnessed during today’s session.

Nifty is pretty much hovering in a range from quite a few days. It seems that this should break in couple of days. It is difficult to guess from data available on which side it will break. Participants are in a confused state of mind and are not able to judge trend in shorter term. Anyway as long as it is above 4665, there is a fair chance that we will break this level on upper side but will not be able to surpass 5000 levels and at the most 5125. So take your own view and trade in the market but with strict stops.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, RELIANCE, ICICIBANK, TATASTEEL and DLF.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 1700 CE, SBIN 1750 CE, SBIN 1600 PE, SBIN 1650 CE and RELIANCE 740 CE.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were MERCATOR 11%, LITL 10%, ONMOBILE 10%, IBREALEST 9% and FSL 9%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were SINTEX -4%, JISLJAL -4%, BHARTIARTL -3%, NMDC -3% and MCDOWELL -3%.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4700 CE (2.29 LK) 4800 CE (5.03 LK) 4900 CE (5.35 LK) 5000 CE (2.77 LK) 5100 CE (3.20 LK) 3900 PE (1.18 LK)  4000 PE (3.65 LK) 4100 PE (1.33 LK) 4400 PE (4.54 LK) 4500 PE (1.43 LK) 4600 PE (3.74 LK) 4700 PE (4.46 LK) 4800 PE (1.39 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4300 PE (-4.28 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.97 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.85 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 66 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 67.74 Lk shares.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 07 January 2012

Special Trading Session: January 07, 2012

It was a special trading session of 1.30 hrs for testing of software. Nifty January Futures closed at 4760 down by 11.95 points and Bank Nifty Futures closed at 8454.45 down by 34.2 points. Volumes were obviously not comparable. Open Interest too did not show any major change. Put Call Ratio has come down to 0.82. Volatility as measured by India VIX was at 25.65 up by 1% from yesterday’s level.

I continue with the same prognosis as said in yesterday’s post.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were RELIANCE, INNDIANB, JPASSOCIATE, PANTALOON and RELCAPITAL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were CHAMBALFERT 85 CE, JPASSOCIATE 55 CE, CHAMBALFERT 90 CE, RCOM 80 CE and PANTALOON 150 CE.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were CHAMBALFERT 8%, SCI 6%, NMDC 5%, NEYVELILIG 5% and STRTECH 5%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were JPASSOCIAT -2%,HOTELLEELA -1%, DHANBANK -1%, KOTAKBANK -1% and AMBUJACEM -1%.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4900 CE (1.21 LK) 5000 CE (1.12 LK) 4600 CE (1.03 LK) 4700 PE (1.01 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4500 CE (-13 K)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.79 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.69 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 63.5 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 66.5 Lk shares.


Happy Trading


Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 06 January 2012

Another Listless Day: January 06, 2012

Nifty January Futures after swing of 125 points managed to close near yesterday’s close at 4771.95 up by marginally 13.85 points. Bank Nifty too closed up by 62.15 points at 8488.65. In a sense it was a listless day though with volatile choppiness. Volumes were substantially higher than yesterday on all Futures and Options markets. Open Interest in Nifty Futures across all series came down by 4.39 lakh shares. Put Call Ratio was by and large steady at 1.01. Volatility as measured by India VIX was down by 2% at 25.46. Dollar Rupee pair too was trading at 53 levels in January Futures. All in all it was a choppy day and it attempted to break the range on higher side but could not sustain at higher levels.

My prognosis for short term span is slightly tilted towards markets moving higher. Those who were short yesterday must have stopped out at 4800 levels. Those who have a bullish interest can still hold on to their Buy positions with stop below 4665 and 4550 as said in yesterday’s post. Long term we are still not out of woods and bearish stance can be changed only when we cross 5150 on sustainable basis.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, RELIANCE, ICICIBANK, TATASTEEL and AXISBANK.

 Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 1700 CE, RELIANCE 700 PE, RCOM 80 CE, RELIANCE 740 CE and SBIN 1800 CE.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were BALRAMCHIN 10%, MTNL 8%, PANTALOON 7%, BAJAJHIND 7% and 3IINFOTECH 6%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were HEROMOTOR -5%, JPASSOCIATE -5%, CROMPTONGREAVES -4%, BHARTIARTL -4% and KFA -4%.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4700 CE (6.19 LK) 4800 CE (2.16 LK) 4900 CE (1.14 LK) 5000 CE (5.25 LK) 5100 CE (1.90 LK) 4000 PE (4.96 LK) 4100 PE (1.28 LK) 4300 PE (7.31 LK) 4400 PE (2.10 LK) 4500 PE (6.57 LK) 4600 PE (4.16 LK) 4700 PE (2.02 LK) 4800 PE (1.01 LK) 4900 PE (1.25 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4600 CE (- 27 K)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.84 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.77 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 69.31 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 67.13 Lk shares.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 05.01.2012

Listless Day: January 05, 2012

Today was the second day in a row where Nifty January Futures traded extremely in a narrow band. Nifty January Futures closed almost flat at 4758.10 down by 2.1 points. Bank Nifty too traded in a band and closed at 8426.50 up by 30 points. Volumes were lower than yesterday both on Futures and Options segment of the market. Open Interest in Nifty Futures across all the series was up by 6.58 lakh shares and that of Bank Nifty was up by 1 lakh shares. Put Call Ratio improved to 1.06 from 0.99. Volatility as measured by India VIX was down by 2% at 25.91. Dollar Rupee Pair was trading lower at 53.20. All in all it was a listless day. Only noticeable thing was increase in Open Interest.

In essence, trading pattern suggests that we are trading in a range with some consolidation and will break this range in coming days. If Put Call Ratio is any indication than probability of breaking range on higher side is more evident than breaking it on lower side. Controlled Volatility along with some stability in Currency shows fear factor is bit releasing and traders are somewhat confident in the markets. All these are mere probabilities and one need to see how market pans out in coming days. To sum up, short term traders who have taken a bull punt yesterday or even today are advised to continue their buy positions with stop below 4665 and 4550. Short term bear traders are advised to look for upward break out level of 4801 to cover their partial shorts and 4950 for covering the rest. For Long term traders 5150 is the level to square off their shorts provided this level sustain for couple of days on closing basis.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were RELIANCE, SBIN, AXISBANK, ICICIBANK and TATAMOTORS.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were RELIANCE 740 CE, SBIN 1700 CE, RELIANCE 700 PE, SBIN 1800 CE and RELIANCE 720 CE.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were SRTRANSFIN 9%, WELCORP 7%, CAIRN 4%, FORTIS 4% and PNB 4%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were MCDOWELL -6%, GSPL -5% ADANIENT -4%, DLF -4% and NCC -4%.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4800 CE (5.02 LK) 4900 CE (2.18 LK) 5000 CE (2.39 LK) 5100 CE (1.57 LK) 5300 CE (1.92 LK) 4000 PE (2.30 LK) 4100 PE (1.58 LK) 4300 PE (9.86 LK) 4500 PE (5.68 LK) 4600 PE (3.37 LK) 4700 PE (5.95 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4200 PE (3.62 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.74 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.53 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 63.94 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 65.54 Lk shares.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 04.01.2012

Day of Consolidation: January 4, 2012

Nifty January Futures remained pretty range bound today. It closed at 4760.20 down by 23 points and Bank Nifty closed at 8396.40 up by 45.50 points. Volumes were more or less same as yesterday or slightly lower than yesterday in both Futures & Options markets. Open Interest also remained flat as yesterday. Put Call Ratio was bit higher at 0.99 up from yesterday’s level of 0.90. Volatility as measured by India VIX was marginally up by 1% at 26.41. Dollar Rupee was trading at 53.30 lower than yesterday. All in all it seems that it was a day of consolidation. Bulls who built up positions yesterday remained intact and had not sold off today. Similarly Bears too have refrained from the market maintaining their earlier short positions. Both Bulls & Bears are waiting for some kind of breakout to add/reduce their positions.

To sum up, short term traders who have taken a bull punt yesterday are advised to continue their buy positions with stop below 4665 and 4550. Short term bear traders are advised to look for upward break out level of 4801 to cover their partial shorts and 4950 for covering the rest. For Long term traders 5150 is the level to square off their shorts provided this level sustain for couple of days on closing basis.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, RELIANCE, TATASTEEL and TATAMOTORS.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 1700 CE, TATAMOTORS 200 CE, SBIN 1800 CE, RELIANCE 740 CE and SBIN 1600 PE.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were MCDOWELL 10%, TTML 6%, EKC 6%, ORIENTBANK 4% and SOBHA 4%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were BAJAJHLDG -7%, VIPIND -5%, BAJAJAUTO -4% M&M -4% and SINTEX -4%.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4800 CE (4.26 LK) 4900 CE (4.81 LK) 5000 CE (3.01 LK) 5100 CE (2.29 LK) 4200 PE (4.05 LK) 4300 PE (3.75 LK) 4500 PE (4.54 LK) 4600 PE (1.30 LK) 4700 PE (4.31 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4100 PE (-10.32 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.62 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.29 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 65.40 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 66.11 Lk shares.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 03 January 2012

Resilient Day: January 03, 2012

Nifty January Futures opened strong and maintained its strength through out the day without giving away its gain for once. It closed at 4783.20 smartly up by 135.10 points. Bank Nifty too registered a gain of 343.85 points and closed at 8350.90. Volumes were surprisingly higher than yesterday both for futures and options markets. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series was higher by whooping 10 lakh shares and that of Bank Nifty too was up by 80 k shares. Put Call Ratio too was higher at 0.90. Volatility as measured by India VIX was down by 5% and closed at 26.16. Dollar Rupee duo was trading at 53.52 slightly lower than yesterday. All this indicate that confidence is returning to the market and Bulls after a long lull has accumulated some positions. It was definitely a much resilient day.

In nutshell, we have to watch tomorrow’s movement very closely and see that this momentum continues. Today’s data indicate Bull accumulation rather than Bear unwinding. If follow up in price movement continues tomorrow and if we see some shorts unwinding, markets might pull back to 4945 level which is 50 DMA. If unable to move higher than we might fall and today’s price movement can be labeled as dead cat bounce. Let us see what unfolds tomorrow. As said in last post, those who took Bull punt yesterday or even today may continue to hold their positions with stop below 4550. For long term positional traders who are holding short will have to see that whether markets tomorrow break above 4820 levels or not.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, RELIANCE, ICICIBANK, TATASTEEL and AXISBANK.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 1700 CE, RELIANCE 740 CE, RELIANCE 720 CE, TATASTEEL 360 CE and SBIN 1800 CE.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were DELTACORP 11%, IVRCLINFRA 11%, VIPIND 10%, GMRINFRA 10% and GUJFLUORO 9%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were GITANJALI -4%, OIL -3%, M&M -2%, BPCL -2% and AMBUJACEM -1%.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4900 CE (3.51 LK) 5000 CE (1.95 LK) 5100 CE (6.90 LK) 5200 CE (3.16 LK) 4400 PE (3.34 LK) 4500 PE (7.46 LK) 4600 PE (8.88 LK) 4700 PE (19.04 LK) 4800 PE (7.23 LK) 4900 PE (1.36 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4600 CE (-3.64 LK) 4700 CE (-8.81 LK) 4800 CE (-2.08 LK) 4100 PE (-6.93 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.50 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.24 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 68.64 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 67.23 Lk shares.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 02 January 2012

Lackluster Day:  January 2, 2012

Nifty January Futures made lower top lower bottom today but managed to close marginally higher than yesterday at 4648.10 up by 13.7 points. Bank Nifty too made lower top lower bottom and closed at 8007.05 up by 62.75 points. Volumes were lower than yesterday in Index Futures and Options and were marginally higher in Stock Futures and Stock Options. Put Call Ratio came down to 0.86 from 1.06 indicating traders were busy writing Call Options and are not gung ho about the markets in near future. Volatility as measured by India VIX was higher by 2% at 27.53. Dollar Rupee duo was trading at 53.63 after making a high of 54.18 in January Futures. . All in all it was a dull day with negative bias in the market.

My prognosis still remains bearish as nothing on chart indicates sign of reversal though Nifty is taking support at its make or break levels of 4550. For extremely short term traders who want to punt on bull side 4590 and 4550 should be considered as stop loss. For long term positional traders hold on to your shorts with initial stop above 4810.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were RELIANCE, SBIN, ICICIBANK, DLF and TATASTEEL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were RELIANCE 700 PE, SBIN 1700 CE, IFCI 25 CE SBIN 1600 PE and RELIANCE 700 CE.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were GVKPIL 8%, JSWSTEEL 7%, NATIONALUM 7%, ORCHIDCHEM 5% and GESHIP 4%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were BAJAJAUTO -8%, TVSMOTOR -8% DCHL -7% KSOIL -6% and SESAGOA -4%.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4500 CE (2.92 LK) 4600 CE (3.95 LK) 4700 CE (4 LK) 4800 CE (3.56 LK) 4900 CE (4.01 LK) 5000 CE (3.05 LK) 5100 CE (1.32 LK) 5300 CE (1.05 LK) 4100 PE (6.61 LK) 4200 PE (3.49 LK) 4300 PE (5.38 LK) 4400 PE (7.79 LK) 4500 PE (5.27 LK) 4600 PE (5.60 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5200 CE (-1 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.77 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 2.68 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 42.75 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 84.02 Lk shares.

Derivatives Daily Update: 30 December 2011

Dull Opening Day: 30 December 2011

Nifty January Futures was not able to sustain at higher levels. It closed at 4634.40 and Bank Nifty closed at 7944.30. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series stood at 2.89 Cr shares and that of bank Nifty stood at 18.47 lac shares. Put Call Ratio closed at 1.06. Volatility as measured by India VIX was at 27.25. All in all it was a dull day.

In my opinion bear trend continues and it is advisable to short Nifty at higher levels with probable target of 4500 in mind.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi