Another Bulls Day: January 20, 2012
Nifty January Futures after opening on stronger note continued with its strength and closed higher by 25.80 points at 5047.85. Bank Nifty too closed higher by 289.15 points at 9490.80. Both the Indices made higher top higher bottom formation today. Volumes were higher on both Futures and Options segments partly due to improved activity and partly due to rollover. Open Interest increased by whooping 31.79 lk shares at 3.14 Cr shares across all the series. Bank Nifty too saw a surge in Open Interest by 3.47 lk shares. Put Call Ratio on consolidated basis across all series and for both Index Options and Stock Options stood at 1.18. Volatility as measured by India VIX was ruling fairly steady at 21.96 up by 1%. Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 50.47. In all it was a day of Bull giving hopes that Expiry will be better.
We are in a short term uptrend which might allow Nifty to touch 5135 levels as all probable indicators are suggesting that, but if we observe from conservative perspective than it seems that there is collective conviction and optimism among the market participants that we are headed for higher levels which in itself may turn negative for market. If we observe some data like Put Call Ratio for Nifty current series it is at 1.99 as against 1.09 at the start of series. Similarly Volatility is at its lowest level of 21.96 as against 27 levels at the start of the series. There is always a chance of mean reversal that is we might correct from this level towards the mean and this process might once again send us in to consolidation phase. So my advice is to keep your eyes open and any signs of such reversal should be used to exit from longs. Mind you, I am not suggesting that this will happen but I am just warning you to remain vigilant.
Top five individual stocks which gained today were IVRCLINFRA 11%, IBREALEST 9%, SUZLON 8%, ORCHIDCHEM 8% and DHANBANK 7%.
Top five individual stocks which lost ground were ADANIENT -9%, SUNTV -6%, EDUCOMP -6%, JETAIRWAYS -5% and KSOILS-5%.
Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were ICICIBANK, AXISBANK, SBIN, RELIANCE and TATASTEEL.
Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were RELIANCE 800 CE, RELIANCE 780 PE, RELIANCE 760 PE RELIANCE 780 CE and AXISBANK 1000 CE.
Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5200 CE (4.59 LK) 4400 PE (3.02 LK) 4700 PE (1.39 LK) 4900 PE (6.36 LK) 5000 PE (19.05 LK) 5100 PE (13.67 LK)
Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4700 CE (-1.79 LK) 4800 CE (-3.94 LK) 4900 CE (-4.72 LK) 5000 CE (-3.57 LK) 5100 CE (2.65 LK)
Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 1.27 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 5.70 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.80 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 41.36 Lk shares.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi
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