Derivatives Daily Update: 30.11.2011

Another Choppy Day: 30 Nov 2011.

Nifty December Futures after opening weaker drifted down to 4756 but closed up by 16 points at 4832.25. Bank Nifty too followed the trend drifted down to 8470 but failed to close higher and it closed at 8561.35 down by 66.55 points. Total volume in the Futures market was at 1.12 lakh Cr, higher than yesterday. Open Interest in Nifty Futures came down by 2.67 lac shares and stood approx. at 2.34 Cr shares. Bank Nifty showed increase in Open Interest by 57 k shares and stood approx. at 21.37 lakh shares. Put Call Ratio stood at 1 and volatility as measured by India VIX was fairly stable at 26.55.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were ICICIBANK, SBIN, BHARTIARTL, RELIANCE and TATAMOTORS.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were CESC 5%, PIRHEALTH 4%, POWERGRID 4%, HINDZINC 4% and ONGC 4%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were GTOFFSHORE -9%, TRIVENI -8%, HDIL -6%, PATELENG -6% and DISHTV -6%.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 1800 CE, SBIN 1700 PE, BHARTIARTL 400 CE, SBIN 1750 CE and ICICIBANK 740 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4800 CE (4.27 lk) 5000 CE (1.76 lk) 5100 CE (2.96 lk) 5200 CE ( 3.63 lk) 4100 PE (7.68 lk) 4200 PE ( 2.64 lk) 4700 PE (18.15 lk) 4800 PE (3.59 lk).

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4900 CE (-5.08 lk) 4000 PE (-3.52 lk) 4500 PE (-3.71 lk)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 3.31 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.50 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 91.12 lac shares and that of Put Options stood at 1.20 Cr shares.

In nutshell, day was again a choppy one. Gyrations in price were witnessed in the market making Nifty to trade on either side of 4800. Today it ended four day’s higher top higher bottom formation pattern and made lower top lower bottom. In short term since Nifty is trading in a range and has not broken 4630 levels, opportunity to buy at current level with strict stop below 4630 and price objective of 5050 exists and one can benefit out of it. In long term though, we are in bear trend and not-so-sacrosanct level of 4630 can easily be broken. So trade cautiously and watch for technical levels and indicators.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 29.11.2011

Choppy Day: 29 Nov 2011.

Nifty was able to make higher top higher bottom today but was not able to sustain its up move and it closed at 4816.75 down by 53.55 points. Bank Nifty was bit weak today as it broke yesterday’s range on both the side and closed lower at 8627.90 down by 182 points. Volumes were better than yesterday on all parameters namely, traded quantity, traded value,  no. of trades and no. of contracts. Open Interest in Nifty futures across all series improved by 9.5 lac shares and stood at 2.36 Cr shares. Bank Nifty too showed increase in Open Interest by 18 k shares and stood at 20.8 lac shares. Put Call Ratio stood at 1.04 up from yesterday’s level of 1. Volatility as measured by India VIX was stable at 26.87.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, RELIANCE, TATASTEEL and TATAMOTORS.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were HINOILEXP 5%, DISHTV 4%, HAVELLS 4%, GSPL 3% and PTC 3%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were PANTALOON -12%, KFA -8% BALRAMCHINI -7% EKC -7% and FINANTECH -6%.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 1800 CE, TATASTEEL 400 CE, SBIN 1700 PE, RELIANCE 800 CE and RELIANCE 780 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4800 CE (3.78 lk) 4900 CE (11.63 lk) 5000 CE (5.66 lk) 5300 CE (1.97 lk) 5400 CE (1.51 lk)  4100 PE (10.28 lk) 4300 PE (2.01 lk) 4500 PE (3.29 lk) 4700 PE (2.18 lk) 4900 PE (1.52 lk).

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4000 PE   (-3.20 lk) 4200 PE (-1.97 lk).

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 3.30 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.37 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 85.60 lac shares and that of Put Options stood at 1.25 Cr shares.

Analysis of today’s data show that Nifty is not able to surpass its resistance level and it attracts selling at higher levels. Under this circumstances probability that Nifty will break 4632 and make a newer low is very much alive. My view in long term is still bearish and I feel that if we break 4600 level decisively, we will visit 4300 -4500 range and around that level we might make a bottom. But in short term till the time Nifty is making higher top higher bottom 5050 can not be ruled out. Bull traders can take a punt with stop loss below 4630 and price objective of 5050. Statutory warning: Stop loss is must for traders.

 Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 28.11.2011

Short Covering Day: 28 Nov 2011

Today was a day of short covering. Nifty December Futures opened with a bang didn’t go below at all and shot up to 4875 finally closing at 4870.30 up by whooping 159.35 points. Bank Nifty December Futures too followed winning streak and after opening with gap made a high of 8822 and finally closed at 8809.90 up by 325.15 points. Volumes were lower than yesterday in both the indices on all fronts viz traded quantity, no. of contracts and traded value. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series came down by 4 lac shares and that of Bank Nifty came down by 1.60 lac shares. Put Call Ratio was steady at 1 and volatility as measured by India VIX was at 26.65 down by 8%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATASTEEL, TATAMOTORS and REKIANCE. Top five gainers were EDUCOMP 16% FINANTECH 14% JSWSTEEL 11% HINDALCO 10% and NCC 8%. Top five losers were CESC -5% PANTALLON -5% CUMMINSIND -3% SUNTV -2% and AUROPHARMA -2%.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity were SBIN 1800 CE SBIN 1700 CE SBIN 1750 CE TATASTEEL 400 CE and SBIN 1700 PE.

Nifty Option Series where POSITIVE change in Open Interest was seen were 4900 CE ( 2.20 lk) 5000 CE (4.44 lk) 5100 CE (5.35 lk) 5200 CE 92.50 lk) 4500 PE (5.60 lk) 4600 PE (7.91 lk) 4700 PE (9.76 lk) 4800 PE ( 8.60 lk). Nifty Option Series where NEGATIVE change in Open Interest was seen were 4700 CE ( -3.13 lk) 4800 CE (-4.70 lk) 4000 PE (-3.69 lk). Open Interest in Out of the Money Call Option was 3.13 Cr shares and that of Put Option was 4.4 Cr shares. Open Interest in In the Money Call Option was 82.47 lac shares and that of Put Option was 1.26 Cr shares.

My prognosis still remains bearish for long term. Today’s price movement can be best considered as dead cat bounce which might continue for a day or two. Weaker shorts got covered today as Open Interest has come down but not in a big way. As said in yesterday’s post those who ventured a Bull trade today eventually benefited as their Price objective of 4850 got realized today. Any way as long as Nifty remains below 5050 level it is advisable to short Nifty with initial price objective of 4650 levels and stop above 5050.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 25.11.2011

Mediocre Opening: 25 Nov 2011

Nifty December Future saw an unimpressive movement. It opened almost unchanged and closed lower by 44 points at 4710.95. Bank Nifty too saw mediocre movement and it closed flat at 8484.75 up by 8 points. Turnover obviously was low compare to yesterday and Nifty Futures saw increase in Open Interest by 5.83 lac shares. Put Call Ratio stood at 1.05 and volatility as measured by India VIX was ruling at 29 slightly up from yesterday’s level. All in all opening session was not noteworthy and listless. Let us see how new series pans out from Monday.

Five individual stocks which commanded higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATAMOTORS, LT and DLF. Five top gainers were PANTALLON 17%, JETAIR 13%, CESC 8%, KFA 8% and DCHL 8%. Five top losers were HINDALCO -4%, RPOWER -4%, MARUTI -4%, STER -4% and SESAGOA -3%.

Five individual stock options which attracted higher activity were SBIN 1700 CE, SBIN 1800 CE, RELIANCE 800 CE TATAMOTORS 180 CE and RELIANCE 780 CE.

Nifty option series where major POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4700 CE (4.05 lk) 4800 CE (12.11 lk) 4900 CE (4.5 lk) 5000 CE (6.38 lk) 5100 CE (9.66 lk) 5300 CE (3.04 lk) 3900 PE (2.50 lk) 4000 PE (16.75 lk) 4100 PE ( 3 lk) 4200 PE (2.5 lk) 4300 PE (2.67 lk) 4400 PE (4.71 lk) 4500 PE (7.25 lk) 4600 PE (7.37 lk) 4700 PE (11.56 lk) 4800 PE (4.63 lk).

In nutshell, as said at the outset today was an unimpressive day. We are in a long term bear trend and testing of 4300 level is very much on cards. Nifty has taken support at 4630 level making it double bottom. Whether we will be able to survive or break this level, only time will tell but likelihood of it breaking the same is very strong. My advice is to short the Nifty with 5050 as potential stop loss. Bull traders can take a punt with 4630 or broadly 4600 as stop loss and price objective of 4800 -4850 level.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 24.11.2011

Stable Expiry : 24.11.2011

Nifty November Futures saw some respectable closing today. Losing streak which started from 5300 levels ended today by making double bottom around 4632 levels. Nifty November Futures closed at 4755 up by 51.1 points. Bank Nifty too closed at 8476.90 up by 79.5 points. Volumes were lower than yesterday across all the series in both indices though overall turnover was higher due to roll over activity in Stock Futures. Open Interest in Nifty came down by 27 lac shares across all series mainly due to expiry but December Futures saw an increase of 25 lac shares. Put Call Ratio was 1.02 higher than yesterday and Volatility as measured by India VIX was down by 3% at 27.95. All in all some stability was seen today.

Top Five Individual Stocks which saw higher volumes were SBIN RELIANCE ICICIBANK TATASTEEL TATAMOTORS. Top Five gainers were PANTALOON 14% STRTECH 13% IFCI 11% SUNTV 11% and ADANIENT 10%. Top Five losers were MUNDRAPORT -5% GITANJALI -4% SAIL -3% HINDPETRO -3% and TTML -3%.

Top Five Stock Options where volumes were higher were SBIN 1650 CE TATASTEEL 380 CE SBIN 1650 CE TATAMOTORS 1700 CE and INFY 2650 CE.

Open Interest Outstanding on day of expiry has no meaning so it is not worth mentioning.

Analysis of today's data shows that after carnage of last 10 to 11 days November Series ended with some resilience. In the process it has formed some double bottom at 4632 levels. Though movement of one day doesn't grant such liberty to name it as double bottom formation unless and until it is confirmed on other technical parameters. Earlier analysis that, we are in downtrend very much exist and probability of Nifty touching 4300 is very much alive. Short term traders who want to take a punt on bull side can consider 4630 as strict stop loss and trade. Long term we are in bear market and advise is to sell on every rise with requisite stop loss.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 23.11.2011

Bloody Day: 23.11.2011

Nifty November Futures after opening weaker was not able to bounce a bit and drifted straight down to 4632 and finally recovered some what lost ground and closed at 4703.90 down by 101.40 points. Bank Nifty too followed the trend and it too closed at 8397.40 down by196.85 points. Large scale Capitulation expected in the market saw its beginning today. There was humungous activity in the market due to roll over and fear. Volumes on all parameter( traded quantity, no. of trades and no. of contracts) were higher than yesterday. Open Interest in both Nifty and Bank Nifty was up by 15.50 lac shares and 2.20 lac shares across all the series. Put Call Ratio too inched up a bit and closed at 0.91. Volatility as measured by India VIX was ruling at 30.68 hugely up by 13 % vindicating once again a fear in the market.

Top Five Individual Stocks where volumes were higher were SBIN ICICIBANK RELIANCE
TATAMOTORS and TATASTEEL. Top Five Individual Stocks which managed to gain today were UNITECH 4% JUBLFOOD 3% TITAN 3% LUPIN 3% and JSWENERGY 2%. Top Five Individual Stocks which lost ground were HINOILEXP -9% SOBHA -8% EKC -8% FSL -8% and UNIPHOS -7%.

Top Five Individual Stock Options which marked higher activity were SBIN1700 CE SBIN 1650 PE SBIN 1650 CE SBIN 1750 CE and RELIANCE 800 CE.

Nifty Option Series where POSITIVE change in Open Interest was witnessed were 4600 CE (8.41 lk) 4700 CE (25.31 lk) 4800 CE (14.52 lk)  4900 CE (2.70 lk) 4400 PE (1.61 lk) 4500 PE (9.43 lk) 4600 PE (16.98 lk) Nifty Option Series where NEGATIVE change in Open Interest was witnessed were5000 CE (- 6.73 lk) 5100 CE (-4.96 lk) 5200 CE (-2.45 lk) 5300 CE (-2.20 lk) 5400 CE (-1.72 lk) 5500 CE (-1.92 lk) 5600 CE (-1.12 lk) 4700 PE (-4.80 lk) 4800 PE (-25.88 lk) 4900 PE (-13.22 lk) 5000 PE (-2.23 lk) 5300 PE (-1.11 lk). Outstanding Open Interest in Out of the Money Put Option was 1.85 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 4.65 Cr shares. Outstanding Open Interest in In the Money Put Option  was 1.2 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 47 lac Shares.

To conclude, final capitulation which was expected in the market saw its ugly opening today. There was blood on the street and indices made their new lows. Nifty broke Feb 2010 low of 4667. My all earlier analysis expressed oft repeatedly in several posts was vindicated today. I was telling repeatedly that we will break 4700 level and we did so. We are absolutely in a deep down trend and I would not be surprised if we revisit 4300 level. There will be bounce backs in the market but don't be in hurry to consider them as buying opportunity. Technical Analysis is continuous process and it changes with price movements so please watch levels very carefully. One thing needs to be remembered that bottoms are always made in capitulation and panic like situation. We might have entered that phase but wait for such confirmation. As of now Sell on every rise will yield better returns.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi.

Derivatives Daily Update: 22.11.2011

Resilient Day: 22.11.2011

Nifty November Future opened higher than yesterday and even closed marginally higher at 4805.3 up by 22 points. Bank Nifty too followed the streak and closed at 8594.25 up by 38.30 points. After huge fall in markets yesterday, today's market were bit resilient. Traded volumes were higher than yesterday both in Nifty and Bank Nifty partly due to shifting of positions and stability in price movements.Open Interest in Nifty across all the series saw increase by 16.60 lac shares and Bank Nifty saw a decrease of 49 k shares. Put Call Ratio was stable at 0.88 and volatility as measured by India VIX closed at 27.35 down by 2%. All in all there was silence after carnage of yesterday.

Top five Individual Stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN ICICBANK RELIANCE TATASTEEL TATAMOTORS. Top Five Individual Stock gainers were SKUMARS 11% ONMOBILE 11% PANTALOON 9% TATAMOTORS 7% and EKC 7%. Top five Individual Stock losers were JINDALSAW -8% TITAN -6% JINDALSWHL -6% MCDOWELL -4% and ARVIND -3%.

Top five Individual Stock Options where higher activity was seen on volume parameter were SBIN 170 CE RELIANCE 800 CE SBIN 1750 CE TATASTEEL 400 CE and SBIN 1700 PE.

Nifty Option Series where POSITIVE change in Open Interest was seen were 4900 CE (2.38 lac)  5000 CE (1.40 lac) 4600 PE (2.90 lac) 4700 PE (10.66 lac). Nifty Option Series where NEGATIVE change in Open Interest was seen were 5100 CE (-3.46 lac) 5200 CE (-1.95 lac) 5300 CE (-1.78 lac) 5400 CE (-2.20 lac) 5500 CE (-1.39 lac) 4900 PE (-1.08 lac) 5000 PE (-5.41 lac) 5100 PE (-1.12 lac) 5200 PE (-2.23 lac) 5300 PE (-1.75 lac) Outstanding Open Interest in Out of the Money  Put Option was2.25 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 4.41 Cr shares. Outstanding Open Interest in In the Money Put Option  was 1.08 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 50.84 lac shares.

To conclude today's price movement can best be named as sideways movements. After huge carnage  yesterday in price, today we saw some consolidation but yet not clear whether we have reached the bottom or not. As said in yesterday's post 4780 is 200 Week's moving average and Nifty might take some support around this level. But macro technical picture is still gloomy which might tempt Nifty to drift down lower. Probability of Nifty breaking 4700 very much exist. Expiry is near so advise is to trade cautiously with negative bias.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 21.11.2011

Downward Journey Continues: 21.11.2011

Today was a ninth day in a row when we have seen Nifty November Futures has closed lower than respective previous session. Nifty November Futures after opening lower was not able to  come back at all and closed at 4783.30 down by 131.30. Ditto for Bank Nifty as it too closed lower at 8555.45 down by 303.80 points. Trading volumes were lower than yesterday but Open Interest in Nifty across all the Series have substantially increased by 25 lac shares. Bank Nifty too saw lower volume and increase in Open Interest by 1 lac shares. Increase in Open Interest when price is substantially down doesn't augur well for Bulls as it indicates fresh shorts being created in market. Put Call Ratio too closed lower at 0.86 again confirming that traders were weary writing puts and they were writing calls. It also means that traders don't believe markets moving upward in near future. Volatility as measured bu India VIX shot up by 8% and closed at 28.61 which also indicates that traders in the markets perceive higher risk in trading. All in all after consolidation for just one day markets have again tanked and doesn't indicate any recovery in near future.

Top Five Individual Stocks which saw higher volumes were SBIN ICICIBANK TATASTEEL LT DLF.  Top Five Individual Stocks which managed to close higher were JISLJAL 3% GMRINFRA 2% DABUR 2% AUROPHARMA 2% and ONMOBILE 2%. Top Five Individual Stocks which lost ground were VIPIND -14% PANTALOON -13% DELTACORP -12% ABAN -12% and JINDALSWHL -11%.

Top Five Individual Stock Option Series which attracted higher volumes were SBIN 1700 CE SBIN 1750 CE SBIN 1700 PE RELIANCE 800 CE and SBIN 1800 CE.

Nifty Option Series where POSITIVE change in Open Interest was seen were 4700 CE (9.5 lac) 4800 CE (18.70 lac)  4900 CE (12.40 lac) 5000 CE (5.97 lac) 5100 CE (1 lac) 4500 PE (3.50 lac) 4600 PE (5.35 lac) 4700 PE (8.07 lac) 4800 PE (3.85 lac). Nifty Option Series where NEGATIVE change in Open Interest was seen were 5300 CE (-1.68 lac) 5400 CE (-1.77 lac) 5500 CE (-1.50 lac) 4900 PE (-4.65 lac) 5000 PE (-2.81 lac) 5100 PE (-5.55 lac) 5200 PE (-1.64 lac). Outstanding Open Interest in Out of the Money Put Option was 1.59 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 4.93 Cr shares. Outstanding Open Interest in In the Money Put Option was 1.93 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 15 lac shares.

 To conclude, As today's caption says Downward Journey Continues. I have said oft-repeatedly that we are in long term bear market and we will revisit earlier low of 4718. Markets have almost come in to the vicinity of that region. Whether we break this level and make a new low or consolidate around this region as the level of 4780 is 200 week's moving average, only time will tell. Till that time one should not confuse himself and trade short with suitable and meaningful stop.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi.

Derivatives Daily Update: 18.11.2011

Day of Consolidation : 18.11.2011

Taking clues from global markets Nifty November Futures opened lower and drifted down to 4845, pulled back to 4925 and finally closed at 4914.60 marginally down by 18.35 points. Bank Nifty November Futures too followed the streak opened lower, further drifted down to 8694, pull backed to 8887 and finally closed at 8859.25 marginally down by 30.90 points. Volumes on net basis across all series were higher. Open Interest in Nifty Futures on net basis showed marginal improvement though November future saw reduction in Open Interest by 14 lac shares. In short Roll Over was seen in the market. Put Call Ratio was at 1 and volatility as measured by India VIX was ruling at 26.58 marginally down from yesterday levels. All in all, it was a day of consolidation.

Top five Individual Stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATASTEEL TATAMOTORS and RELIANCE. Five top gainers were RENUKA 10% VIPIND 9% PANTALOON 9% SAIL 8% and GVKPIL 8%. Five top losers were IVRCLINFRA -12% IFCI -8% ROLTA -7% SUZLON -7% and JSWSTEEL -6%.

Top five Individual Stock Options which attracted higher volumes were SBIN 1800 CE SBIN 1750 CE SBIN 1700 PE RELIANCE 800 CE RELIANCE 820 CE.

Nifty Option series where POSITIVE change in Open Interest was seen were 4800 CE (15.60 lac) 4900 CE (7.42 lac) 5000 CE (4.95 lac) 5100 CE (4.80 lac) 4500 PE (2.33 lac) 4600 PE (13.15 lac) 4700 PE (13.92 lac) 4800 PE (4.50 lac) Nifty Option Series where NEGATIVE change in Open Interest was seen were 5300 CE (-5.06 lac) 5400 CE (-2.48 lac) 5500 CE (-1.20 lac) 4900 PE 9-19.91 lac) 5000 PE (-17.09 lac) 5100 PE (-6.61 lac) 5200 PE (-2.24 lac) Outstanding Open Interest in Out of the Money Put Option was 2.42 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 4.07 Cr shares. Outstanding Open Interest in In the Money Put Option was 1.05 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 65 lac shares.

In substance, today was a day of consolidation where gyrations were low and some roll over activity was seen in the market. Long term view up till now remains bearish and every rise in the market is an opportunity to sell. If we find some support at 4800 -4700 range with good volumes without breaking earlier lows stance might be changed but till that time bias is downwards and once we revisit those lows, we will see how to trade further. Till that time stick to my earlier analysis expressed in several previous posts.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 17.11.2011

Shattering Day : 17.11.2011

There was absolute carnage on the Street. Nifty November Futures after opening marginally up from yesterday's closing was not even able to surpass its opening price of 5052. It went down to 4915 and closed at 4932.95 down by 111.95 points. Bank Nifty November futures too closed at 8890.15 down by 177.95 points. Volumes through out the day were lower and picked up the momentum only in last 1 hour. No. of contracts and No. of trades were lower than yesterday but Open Interest across all series in Nifty was substantially up by 16.95 lac shares. Built up of shorts were seen in new series. Bank Nifty too volumes were lower but Open Interest there too was higher by 2.59 lac shares. Increase in Open Interest on down day indicates there was huge built up in short positions. Put Call Ratio was at 0.83 and Volatility as measured by India VIX closed at 26.92 up by 8%. Increase in Volatility suggests traders are weary about the markets and perceive some immediate risk in price movements.

Top five Individual Stocks which saw higher volumes were SBIN ICICIBANK RELIANCE TATAMOTORS TATASTEEL. Top Five Individual Stocks which saw higher closing were PATNI 9% PANTALOON 6% SOBHA 5% MPHASIS 4% IVRCLINFRA 4%. Top five Individual Stocks which lost ground were SUZLON -12% INDIAINFO -12% SKUMARS -11% APIL -9% ADANIENT -7%.

Top five Individual Stock Options which attracted higher volumes were SBIN 1800 CE RELIANCE 840 CE SBIN 1750 PE SBIN 1700 PE TATASTEEL 420 CE.

Nifty Option Series where POSITIVE change in Open Interest was witnessed were 4900 CE (25.95 lac) 5000 CE (13.79 lac) 5100 CE (12.14 lac) 5200 CE (11.15 lac) 5300 CE (7.7 lac) 4500 PE (1.7 lac) 4600 PE (1.83 lac) 4700 PE (4.57 lac) 4800 PE (6.89 lac) 4900 PE (13.94 lac). Nifty Option Series where NEGATIVE change in Open Interest was witnessed were 5400 CE (-2.11 lac) 5500 CE (-3.85 lac) 5000 PE (-13.10 lac) 5100 PE (-6.28 lac) 5200 PE (-3.52 lac) 5300 PE 9-1.27 lac). Outstanding Open Interest in Out of the Money Put Option stood at 2.33 Cr shares and that of Call Option stood at 4.10 Cr shares. Outstanding Open Interest in In the Money Put Option stood at 1.45 Cr shares and that of Call Option stood at 42 lac shares. Option traders were busy writing (selling) out of the money options and were squaring off in the money options.

My prognosis that markets are in long term bear trend is once again vindicated today. Downward journey might take us to 4700 levels or may be below that. Some support exist at 4780 level which is 200 Week's moving average. Trade with strict stop losses as markets have again turned choppy and volatile. Advise is to short Nifty in tranches and keep some meaningful stop loss.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 16.11.2011

Choppy Day: 16.11.2011

Amidst extremely choppy price movements Nifty November Futures closed down by 33.3 points at 5044.90. Today also it made a lower top lower bottom formation. Bank Nifty too followed trend and closed down by 12.55 points at 9068.10 points. It too made a lower top and lower bottom formation. Volumes were extremely higher at 1.80 lac Cr. Open Interest in Nifty November Futures across all the series was down by 196000 and that of Bank Nifty was down by 25000. Put Call Ratio was stable at 0.92 and Volatility as measured by India VIX too was stable at 25.04. Markets today witnessed roller coaster ride as it opened lower by 30 points went down to 5002 than bounced back to 5075 level drifted lower to 4997 and again bounced back to 5080 and closed at 5044.90.

Five Individual Stocks where volumes were high were SBIN ICICIBANK TATASTEEL TATAMOTORS AXISBANK. Top gainers were KFA 18% PANTALOON 14% JUBLFOOD 7% JETAIRWAYS 6% MCDOWELL 5%. Top losers were SREINFRA -10% MUNDRAPORT -8% MPHASIS -8% SINTEX -8% EDUCOMP -6%.

Five Individual Stock Options where volumes were higher were SBIN 1800 CE SBIN 1750 CE TATASTEEL 420 CE SBIN 1700 CE RELIANCE 860 CE.

Nifty Option Series where POSITIVE change in Open Interest was seen were 4900 CE (2.91 lac) 5000 CE (19.02 lac) 5100 CE (5.70 lac) 5200 CE (8.04 lac) 5300 CE (2.67 lac) 5400 CE (3.41 lac) 4700 PE (2.16 lac) 4900 PE (1.37 lac) 5300 PE (1.23 lac). Nifty Option Series where NEGATIVE change in Open Interest was seen were 5500 CE (-2.52 lac) 4800 PE (-6.12 lac) 5100 PE (-8.77 lac) 5200 PE (-2 lac) 5400 PE (-2.96 lac). As can be seen from this data that traders were busy writing Call Options and unwinding Put Options. We can fairly draw a conclusion that traders are not upbeat about the market. Outstanding Open Interest in Out of the Money Put Option was 2.89 lac Cr and that of Call Option was 3.51 Cr shares. Outstanding Open Interest of In the Money Put Option was 1.14 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 49 lac shares.

My analysis of price movement, volume data and technical charts indicates that we are in long term   downtrend. Such gyrations, the one we witnessed today can come in the market both because of uncertain global markets and nearing of expiry. Trade cautiously with downward bias and of course with suitable stops.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 15.11.2011

Extreme Weak Day : 15.11.2011

Nifty November Futures after opening weak was not able to surpass its yesterday's high and made a lower low today. It closed at 5078.20 down by 77.65 points. Bank Nifty November Futures too followed the trend and it made a lower top and lower bottom. It also closed weaker at 9080.65 down by 195.75 points. It was no respite day with higher trading volumes than yesterday. Open Interest in Nifty on net basis across all series was up by 3.13 lac shares though it was down by 6.23 lac shares in November series. Open Interest in Bank Nifty across all series was up by 1 lac shares. Put Call Ratio remain unchanged at 0.90. Volatility as measured by India VIX was at 25.97 up by 3%. Volatility from couple of days is steadily increasing as traders are perceiving some element of risk in trading.

Top Five Individual Stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN TATAMOTORS ICICIBANK TATA STEEL DLF. Top Five Individual Stock which managed to close higher were CIPLA 6% DCHL 5% KFA 3% TATAMOTORS 2% NHPC 2%. Top Five Individual Stocks which lost ground were INDHOTEL -13% TRIVENI -12% LITL -12% KSOIL -11% RENUKA -11%.

Top Five Individual Stock Options which traded higher on volume parameter were SBIN 1800 CE SBIN 1750 CE SBIN 1750 PE SBIN 1850 CE SBIN 1900 CE.

Nifty November Option Series where POSITIVE change in Open Interest was witnessed were 5000 CE (4.31 lac) 5100 CE (22.50 lac) 5200 CE (6.88 lac) 5300 CE (5.11 lac) 5400 CE (4.52 lac) 4800 PE (8.68 lac) 4900 PE (8.06 lac) 5000 PE (6.76 lac). Nifty November Option Series where NEGATIVE change in Open Interest was witnessed were 5500 CE (-3.90 lac) 5600 CE (-2.84 lac) 5100 PE (-3.37 lac) 5200 PE (-10.30 lac) 5300 PE (2.84 lac). Outstanding Open Interest in Out of the Money Put Option was 2.96 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 3.44 Cr shares. Outstanding Open Interest of In the Money Put Option was 1.36 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 2.81 Cr shares. If we look at the data from Option Writers eyes than they were shopping Call Options in a huge way meaning thereby that traders in the markets does not see markets moving up in near futures. 

I was screaming from the roof that markets are poised to go down. Today we saw complete break down in the market as even a small rise in price was met with huge supply. All traditional indicators and tools on charts have turned negative which gives me feeling that markets have entered a nervous zone and we will drift lower. In my opinion we might test 4700 or might go even lower than that but we well find some support at 4760 -4860 zone as they are 200 Week's Simple & Exponential Moving Averages. So advise is to trade short on every rally with stop above 5340.

Happy Trading 

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 14.11.2011

Terribly Weak Day : 14.11.2011


Nifty November Futures after opening with a gap of nearly 50 points gave away all its gain and closed at 5155.85 down by 35.90 points. Bank Nifty November Futures was even more vulnerable as it didn't surpass its yesterday's high and closed at 9276.40 down by 43.60 points though percentage fall of Nifty was higher than Bank Nifty. Total turnover both volume wise and value wise were lower than yesterday in both the indices futures. On a day when markets have closed lower, Open Interest in Nifty Futures across all the series have increased by 8.39 lac shares which shows that fresh shorts has been created in the market. Bank Nifty too saw a increase in Open Interest by 63 k shares. Put Call Ratio has marginally came down to 0.90 and Volatility as measured by India VIX was ruling at 25.29 up by 2%. In substance Markets were not able to sustain as it witnessed selling at higher levels.


Five Individual Stock Futures which attracted higher volumes were SBIN RENUKA TATAMOTORS TATASTEEL ICICIBANK. Top Five gainers were KFA 10% SUNTV 4% MCDOWELL 4% HEXAWARE 4% MUNDRAPORT 3%. Top losers were RENUKA -26% SKUMARS -15% BALRAM -11% EDUCOMP -10% VIPIND -10%.


Five Individual Stock Options where higher volumes where seen were SBIN 1800 CE SBIN 1900 CE SBIN 1850 CE SBIN 1800 PE SBIN 2000 CE.


Nifty Option Series where increase in Open Interest was witnessed were 5100 CE ( 3.82 lac) 5200 CE ( 5.74 lac) 5300 CE (3.48 lac) 5400 CE ( 3.22 lac) 5500 CE ( 2.64 lac) 4900 PE (4.14 lac) 5000 PE (5.25 lac) 5100 PE (7.24 lac) 5200 PE ( 4.41 lac). Nifty Option Series where decrease in Open Interest was witnessed were 5700 CE (-1.54 lac) 4800 PE (-2.20 lac) 5300 PE (-1.1 lac) 5400 PE (-2.19 lac). Out of the Money Open Interest in Put Options was 3.38 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 2.96 Cr shares.  In the Money Open Interest in Put Option was 94 lac shares and that of Call Option was 48 lac shares.


To conclude, today's price movements indicate that we have broken the range on down side and probability of markets touching recent low of 4718 or even going below that has once again become live. As indicated several times in earlier posts, my opinion is tilted towards markets going down. Put Call Ratio remaining below 1 indicates that traders are not gung ho about the markets. It is advisable to short the Nifty with adequate stops which may be placed above 200 DMA of 5340. 


Happy Trading


Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 11.11.2011

Down Breakout Day: 11.11.2011


Nifty November Futures opened much lower at 5189.85 down by 121 points but managed to closed at 5191.75 lower by 45.35 points. Bank Nifty November Futures opened lower by 310 points at 9575.55 and closed at 9320 down by 285.65  points. Bank nifty saw more weakness as it was not able to recover to the extent of recovery in Nifty. Volumes both quantity wise as well as value wise were higher than yesterday but Nifty witnessed reduction in Open Interest by 4.56 lac shares signifying some Bull unwinding in the market. On the Contrary Bank Nifty witnessed increase in Open Interest by 1.64 lac shares signifying some fresh shorts created in the market. Put Call Ratio was fairly stable at 0.93 almost unchanged and Volatility as measured by India VIX was ruling at 24.74 up by marginally 2%.


Five Top Individual Stocks which attracted higher activity were SBIN ICICIBANK RELIANCE TATASTEEL AXISBANK. Top Five Gainers list included HINOILEXP 8% ALOKTEXR 5% TATACOMM 4% APOLLOTYRE 3% and M&M 3%. Top Five Losers were EDUCOMP -11% KFA -9% MCDOWELL -8% PANTALOON -8% and KSOILS -7%.


Five Top Individual Stock Options which attracted higher volumes were SBIN 1900 CE SBIN 1800 PE SBIN 2000 CE SBIN 1850 CE and SBIN 1950 CE.


Nifty Option Series where increase in Open Interest was witnessed were 5100 CE ( 4 lac) 5200 CE (15 lac) 5400 CE ( 3 lac) 5500 CE ( 2lac) 4700 PE ( 3 lac) 4800 PE ( 9 lac) 5100 ( 5 lac). Nifty Option Series where decrease in Open Interest was witnessed were 5600 CE ( -4 lac) 4900 PE (-4 lac) 5200 CE (-6 lac) 5300 PE ( - 8 lac). Out of the Money Open Interest in Put Options was 3.29 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 2.91 Cr shares.  In the Money Open Interest in Put Option was 97 lac shares and that of Call Option was 45 lac shares.


Analysis of price movement, volume data as well as technical charts vindicates my stand that markets are poised to go down and we will try and test recent low of 4718 or probably might break this level and make a new bottom anywhere between 4500 -4700 level. Caveat as said in yesterday's post that it should decisively break 5200 or precisely 5175 level. Today intra day Nifty has breached this level but managed to close near 5200 level. Any way though in shorter time frame probability of Nifty touching its 200 days moving average ( DMA ) both exponential and simple which are placed at 5340 & 5398 still exists, in longer time frame 4700 is very much the possibility. 


Happy Trading


Atul Doshi

How PIIGS Defaults Could Affect The Markets - Investopedia.com

How PIIGS Defaults Could Affect The Markets - Investopedia.com

Derivatives Daily Update: 09.11.2011

Weak Day: 09.11.2011


Today Nifty November Futures closed at 5237.10 down by 78.45 points. Bank Nifty November Futures too showed a weakness and closed at 9605.65 down by 298.40 points. Volumes were higher than yesterday in both the indices as well as market as a whole. Open Interest on net basis across all the series showed increase in outstanding shares. Nifty's Open Interest was up by 3.33 lac shares while that of Bank Nifty was up by 1.24 lac shares. On a weak day increase in Open Interest suggests some shorts have been created in the market. Put Call Ratio stood at 0.94 marginally down from yesterday's level while Volatility as measured by India VIX was up by 2.5 % at 24.30 both due to weakness as well as due to closure of market tomorrow.


Individual Stock Futures which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATATSTEEL, TATAMOTORS and DLF. Top five gainers were MCDOWELL 5% FSL 4% HINDUNILVR 3% ASHOKLEY 3% and PIRHEALTH 2%. Top five losers were KFA -10% SBIN -7% TATAMOTORS -6% JINDALSWHL -6% and RENUKA -6%.


Individual Stock Options which attracted higher volumes were SBIN 2000 CE, SBIN 2100 CE, SBIN 1900 PE, SBIN 2050 CE and SBIN 1950 CE.


Nifty Option Series where increase in Open Interest was witnessed were 5100 CE (2 lac) 5200 CE (4 lac) 5300 CE (13 lac) 5400 CE (4 lac) 4900 PE (6 lac) 5000 PE ( 10 lac) 5300 PE (3 lac). Nifty Option Series where decrease in Open Interest was witnessed were 5500 CE (-1 lac) 5600 CE (-3 lac) 4800 PE (-1 lac) 5100 PE (-2 lac). Out of the Money Open Interest in Put Options was 3.68 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 2.57 Cr shares.  In the Money Open Interest in Put Option was 67 lac shares and that of Call Option was 70 lac shares.


My prognosis of the market is tilted towards markets going down in longer term.  I would reproduce a paragraph from my earlier post dated 28.10.2011. "Secondly all the falls from 6349 levels were corrected by nearly 61.8% or some time even more but ended lower than previous top. Just to give you an example fall from 6349 to 5728 was corrected up to 6210 level but was unable to surpass 6349. Similarly fall from 6210 level to 5175 was corrected up to 6000 level but was not able to surpass 6210. So if we believe in this observation, this time fall from 5760 level to 4718 has corrected up to 5385 till date but will not surpass 5760." As I write this post global markets are all down on sovereign crisis in European countries and we are closed on Thursday. We are likely to open lower than 5200 on Friday. The lull that we saw in last 2 days of markets trading in extreme small range was an indication that storm is coming. It is likely that we might break the range on lower side with a caveat that we need to see on closing basis whether we are able to close above 5200 levels or not. If we close above it, there is a chance that we might touch 5400 levels once again but if not which is more likely than we are again starting a journey towards 4700 levels.


Happy Trading


Atul Doshi.

Derivatives Daily Update: 08.11.2011

Most Boring Session: 08.11.2011


It was most boring session in recent past. Probably it was far better to watch Ra.One for second time than to watch today's trading screen. Nifty November Futures closed flatly at 5315.55 barely down by 1.3 points. Bank Nifty too didn't saw any movement closing at 9904.05 marginally up by 22.45 points. Trading volumes were lower than yesterday though we saw a sharp jump in Nifty November Futures open Interest. It saw a increase of 6.50 lac shares across all the series. Bank nifty saw reduction in Open Interest by 33 k shares. Put Call Ratio was steadily rising and it stood at 1.07. Volatility as measured by India VIX too was stable at 23.71. All in all  it was a lackluster day even when we opened after 3 days of vacation.


Individual Stock Futures which attracted high volumes today were SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATAMOTORS, BSNKINDIA and RELIANCE. Top gainers list included JAINIRRI 9% HINDOILEXP 8% JPPOWER 6% APOLLOTYRE 6% and ABB 5%. Top losers list included TRIVENI -4% BANKINDIA -4% AUROPHARMA -4% ORIENTBANK -4% and IBREALEST -4%.


Individual Stock Options where higher volumes were seen were SBIN 2000 CE, SBIN 2100 CE, SBIN 2050 CE, SBIN 1900 PE and RELIANCE 900 CE.


Nifty Option Series where increase in Open Interest was seen were 5300 CE (9.5 lac) 5400 CE (7.4 lac) 5500 CE (2.9 lac) 4800 PE (10 lac) 4900 PE (3 lac) 5000 PE (3.8 lac) 5300 PE (4.3 lac) Nifty Option Series where decrease in Open Interest was seen were 4700 PE (-4.1 lac) 5200 PE (-1 lac) Out of the Money Open Interest in Put Options was 3.98 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 1.98 Cr shares.  In the Money Open Interest in Put Option was 29 lac shares and that of Call Option was 1.16 Cr shares.


To conclude, we are trading in a range and day by day this range is narrowing. Normally such things don't last too long especially when global events has potential to influence our markets. As said in yesterday's post so long as we are able to hold 5200 on broad basis there is a chance that we may touch 5340 & 5405 which are 200 DMA (exponential and simple) respectively. Once we are able to cross this level and sustain for few days with good volumes, probability is there that we might take out 5760. But this are early days as long term averages are always a stiff resistance. As of now, watch technical levels very carefully and try to trade a range till we see some meaningful breakout.


Happy Trading


Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 04.11.2011

Vacation Mood Day: 04.11.2011

Price movements in markets were sluggish. Though Nifty November Futures managed to close at 5316.85 up by 21 points and Bank Nifty at 9881.60 up by 51.7 points, volumes were lower than yesterday. We are approaching long week end hence cautious behavior was witnessed in the market. Open Interest in Nifty came down by 3.50 lac shares across all the series and Open Interest in Bank Nifty too came down by 34 k shares. Put Call Ratio was bit stable than yesterday at 0.92 and Volatility as measured by India VIX too came down by 5% to 23.43.

Top five Individual Stock Futures which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, JSWSTEEL, ICICIBANK, RELIANCE and TATAMOTORS. Top five individual gainers were HAVELLS 7%, PATNI 7%, JSWSTEEL 6%, ONMOBILE 6%, and SUNTV 6%. Top five individula losers were VIP IND -3% JAIN IRRIG -3% PTC -2% RANBAXY -2% and DHANBANK -2%.

Top five individual Stock Options which attracted higher volumes were SBIN 2000 CE, RELIANCE 900 CE, BHARTIARTL 400 CE, ICICIBANK 900 CE and SBIN 2100 CE.

Nifty Option Series where increase in Open Interest was witnessed were 5400 CE (4 lac) 5500 CE (7 lac) 4900 PE (8 lac) 5000 PE (3 lac) 5200 PE (3 lac) 5300 PE ( 4 lac) Nifty Option Series where decrease in Open Interest was witnessed were 5300 CE (-3lac) 4700 PE (-2lac). Out of the Money Open Interest in Put Options was 3.50 Cr shares and Call Option was 1.88 Cr shares. In the Money Open Interest in Put Option was 62 lac shares and Call Option was 1.06 Cr shares.


Observation of price movements since we broke 5175- 5200 resistance zone decisively, shows that in last 7 days we have not revisited those levels again. It has form some sort of support zone around those levels. Unless and until we break this level once again chances are there we might touch 5470 which is downward sloping trend line and might find some resistance at those levels. Earlier we were trading in a range of 5000 -5175 and now we are trading in a range of 5200-5400 from last 1 week. In a way we have upgraded levels which shows some bullish strength. Let us watch the data for 1 week more, I feel some definite trend will emerge out in coming sessions. Till that time trade the range and watch out for breakout from this wedge formation.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 03.11.2011

Resilient Day: 03.11.2011

Nifty November Futures closed at 5295.85 up by 15.65 points. Bank Nifty Futures closed at 9829.90 up by 5.55 points. Volumes were higher than yesterday but Open Interest came down by 3.60 lac shares across all series in Nifty Futures. Bank Nifty saw increase in Open Interest by 34k shares. Put Call Ratio drastically came down at 0.88 and Volatility as measured by India VIX stood at 24.66 marginally down from yesterday's level.

Top five Individual Stocks Futures which attracted higher volumes were STATEBANK, ICICIBANK, TATAMOTORS, RELIANCE and TATASTEEL. Top gainers were ONMOBILE 15% DHANBANK 11% SUNTV 6% ORCHIDCHEM 6% and JSWSTEEL 6%. Top losers were BAJAJHIND -6% ROLTA -3 EDUCOMP -3% JUBLFOOD -3% and SAIL -3%.

Top five Individual Stock Options which attracted higher volumes were SBIN 2000 CE SBIN 1950 CE RELIANCE 900 CE UNITECH 30 CE and SBIN 1900 PE.

Nifty Option Series where increase in Open Interest was witnessed were 5400 CE (7 Lac) 5600 CE (2.5 lac) 5700 CE (2.5 lac) 5000 PE (5.5 lac) 5100 PE (5 lac) 5200 PE (4 lac) Nifty Option Series where decrease in Open Interest was witnessed were 5500 CE (-3 lac) 4800 PE (-2 lac) 5300 PE (-2.5 lac) Out of the Money Open Interest in Put Options was 3.70 Cr shares and Call Option was 1.81 Cr shares. In the Money Open Interest in Put Option was 28 lac shares and Call Option was 1.12 Cr shares.

My prognosis of the market still remains the same. In short term Nifty is taking support at 5250-5225 level on closing basis living open opportunity to buy at current level with Stop Loss below 5225-5200 level with a price objective of 5360 and subsequently at the most 5470. On long term basis as said in earlier posts several time there is a possibility of Nifty touching 4700 levels. So watch technicals and price movements closely and make your decisions.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: 02.11.2011

A Lackluster Day.: 02.11.2011

Nifty November Futures opened lower by 74 points but closed down by only 11.2 points at 5280.20. Similarly Bank Nifty November Futures too opened lower by 175 points but closed down by 44.70 at 9824.35. Traded volumes were higher than yesterday in both the indices. Open Interest in Nifty Futures across all the series show rise by 2.29 lac shares and that of Bank Nifty show fall of 42k shares. Put Call Ratio stood at 1.16 with no change from yesterday's level. Volatility as measured by India VIX was ruling at 24.90 up by 4%. All in all it seems that markets are in consolidation zone.

Top five Individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATAMOTORS, RELIANCE and TATASTEEL. Top five gainers were ALBK 8% TECHM 6% ESCORTS 5% RCOM 5% CHAMBAL 5%. Top five losers were JAINIRRGATION -5% GVKPOWER -4% HCC -4% WELCORP -4% MCLEOD -4%.

Top five individual stock options which attracted higher volumes were SBIN 2000 CE, RELIANCE 900 CE, RELIANCE 880 CE, SBIN 1950 CE, SBIN 1900 CE.

Nifty Option Series where increase in open Interest was seen were 5300 CE (3 lac) 5400CE (5 lac) 5500 CE (3 lac) 5600 CE (6 lac) 4700 PE (10 lac) 4800 PE (6 lac) 5000 PE (3 lac) 5100 PE (7 lac) 5200 PE (5 lac) 5300 PE (5 lac). Nifty Option Series where decrease in Open Interest was seen were 4900 PE (-9 lac) and 5400 PE (-2 lac). Out of the Money Open Interest in Put Options stood at 3.36 Cr and Call Option stood at 2.22 Cr. In the Money Open Interest in Put Options stood at 64 lac shares and Call Option stood at 68 lac shares. Today's activity shows Option writers were busy shopping in out of the Money Options both Call & Puts.

To conclude nothing materially has changed which can influence to change the opinion. I am bearish on long term view but on short term basis Nifty is taking support at 5240. One who wants to venture a buy can do so by buying at current rate with stop loss below 5225.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update:01.11.2011

A Down Day : 01.11.2011

Nifty November future started the day on weaker not and even closed lower by 55.70 points at 5291.40.Bank Nifty November futures followed the trend and it too closed lower by 147.65 points at 9869.05. Volumes were higher compare to yesterday. Open Interest in Nifty November Futures came down by 6 lac approx indicating some Bull unwinding happening in the market. Bank Nifty Open Interest too was marginally lower indicating no new activity happening in the market. Put Call ratio was marginally up to 1.16 level.  Volatility as measured by India VIX was at 24 up by 6 % indicating players are bit weary and they see some price risk increasing in the markets.

Top five individual stock futures which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATAMOTORS, PNB and RELIANCE. Top five gainers were HAVELLS 8%, GMDC 6%, ABIRLANUVO 6% ORCHIDCHEM 6% and COLGATE 4%. Top five losers were IVRCLINFRA -7% DCHL -6% GMRINFRA -6% CENTRAL BANK -5% and HCC -5%.

Top five individual stock option which witnessed higher activity were HINDUNILVR 380 CE HINDUNILVR 400 CE SBIN 2000 CE RELIANCE 900 CE and HINDUNILVR 360 PE.

Positive change in open interest in Nifty option series was seen in 5200 CE (2lac) 5300 CE (11 lac) 5400 CE (2 lac) 5500 CE (4 lac) 5600 CE (3 lac) 4800 PE (5 lac) 5100 PE (11 lac) 5200 PE (7 lac) and negative change in open interest was seen in 4900 PE (-2lac) 5300 PE (-4 lac) and 5500 PE (-2 lac). Out of the Money Put Option Open Interest was 3.28 Cr and Call Option was 2.10 Cr. while In the Money Put Option open interest was 63 lac and Call option was 71 lac.

In my opinion my long term bearish view is vindicated today as Nifty is attracting selling at higher levels and it is not surpassing its resistance zone decisively. Nifty is behaving in copy book style technical manner. My prognosis is still tilted towards Nifty making a newer low, lower than 4718 in coming days as this time too it has nearly pull backed to 61.8%  of falling trend (5760-4718). This view can be changed only If Nifty is able to break 5470, a downward sloping trend line and after breaking crosses 5760 from where it started this down trend. Of-course in between there will be gyrations and some pull back rallies but bottom line is trend will be downward. Short term traders can make quick bucks in this pull back rallies buy buying with stop loss of 5240 with a price objective of 5470.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi