Weak Day: 09.11.2011
Today Nifty November Futures closed at 5237.10 down by 78.45 points. Bank Nifty November Futures too showed a weakness and closed at 9605.65 down by 298.40 points. Volumes were higher than yesterday in both the indices as well as market as a whole. Open Interest on net basis across all the series showed increase in outstanding shares. Nifty's Open Interest was up by 3.33 lac shares while that of Bank Nifty was up by 1.24 lac shares. On a weak day increase in Open Interest suggests some shorts have been created in the market. Put Call Ratio stood at 0.94 marginally down from yesterday's level while Volatility as measured by India VIX was up by 2.5 % at 24.30 both due to weakness as well as due to closure of market tomorrow.
Individual Stock Futures which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATATSTEEL, TATAMOTORS and DLF. Top five gainers were MCDOWELL 5% FSL 4% HINDUNILVR 3% ASHOKLEY 3% and PIRHEALTH 2%. Top five losers were KFA -10% SBIN -7% TATAMOTORS -6% JINDALSWHL -6% and RENUKA -6%.
Individual Stock Options which attracted higher volumes were SBIN 2000 CE, SBIN 2100 CE, SBIN 1900 PE, SBIN 2050 CE and SBIN 1950 CE.
Nifty Option Series where increase in Open Interest was witnessed were 5100 CE (2 lac) 5200 CE (4 lac) 5300 CE (13 lac) 5400 CE (4 lac) 4900 PE (6 lac) 5000 PE ( 10 lac) 5300 PE (3 lac). Nifty Option Series where decrease in Open Interest was witnessed were 5500 CE (-1 lac) 5600 CE (-3 lac) 4800 PE (-1 lac) 5100 PE (-2 lac). Out of the Money Open Interest in Put Options was 3.68 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 2.57 Cr shares. In the Money Open Interest in Put Option was 67 lac shares and that of Call Option was 70 lac shares.
My prognosis of the market is tilted towards markets going down in longer term. I would reproduce a paragraph from my earlier post dated 28.10.2011. "Secondly all the falls from 6349 levels were corrected by nearly 61.8% or some time even more but ended lower than previous top. Just to give you an example fall from 6349 to 5728 was corrected up to 6210 level but was unable to surpass 6349. Similarly fall from 6210 level to 5175 was corrected up to 6000 level but was not able to surpass 6210. So if we believe in this observation, this time fall from 5760 level to 4718 has corrected up to 5385 till date but will not surpass 5760." As I write this post global markets are all down on sovereign crisis in European countries and we are closed on Thursday. We are likely to open lower than 5200 on Friday. The lull that we saw in last 2 days of markets trading in extreme small range was an indication that storm is coming. It is likely that we might break the range on lower side with a caveat that we need to see on closing basis whether we are able to close above 5200 levels or not. If we close above it, there is a chance that we might touch 5400 levels once again but if not which is more likely than we are again starting a journey towards 4700 levels.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi.
Today Nifty November Futures closed at 5237.10 down by 78.45 points. Bank Nifty November Futures too showed a weakness and closed at 9605.65 down by 298.40 points. Volumes were higher than yesterday in both the indices as well as market as a whole. Open Interest on net basis across all the series showed increase in outstanding shares. Nifty's Open Interest was up by 3.33 lac shares while that of Bank Nifty was up by 1.24 lac shares. On a weak day increase in Open Interest suggests some shorts have been created in the market. Put Call Ratio stood at 0.94 marginally down from yesterday's level while Volatility as measured by India VIX was up by 2.5 % at 24.30 both due to weakness as well as due to closure of market tomorrow.
Individual Stock Futures which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATATSTEEL, TATAMOTORS and DLF. Top five gainers were MCDOWELL 5% FSL 4% HINDUNILVR 3% ASHOKLEY 3% and PIRHEALTH 2%. Top five losers were KFA -10% SBIN -7% TATAMOTORS -6% JINDALSWHL -6% and RENUKA -6%.
Individual Stock Options which attracted higher volumes were SBIN 2000 CE, SBIN 2100 CE, SBIN 1900 PE, SBIN 2050 CE and SBIN 1950 CE.
Nifty Option Series where increase in Open Interest was witnessed were 5100 CE (2 lac) 5200 CE (4 lac) 5300 CE (13 lac) 5400 CE (4 lac) 4900 PE (6 lac) 5000 PE ( 10 lac) 5300 PE (3 lac). Nifty Option Series where decrease in Open Interest was witnessed were 5500 CE (-1 lac) 5600 CE (-3 lac) 4800 PE (-1 lac) 5100 PE (-2 lac). Out of the Money Open Interest in Put Options was 3.68 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 2.57 Cr shares. In the Money Open Interest in Put Option was 67 lac shares and that of Call Option was 70 lac shares.
My prognosis of the market is tilted towards markets going down in longer term. I would reproduce a paragraph from my earlier post dated 28.10.2011. "Secondly all the falls from 6349 levels were corrected by nearly 61.8% or some time even more but ended lower than previous top. Just to give you an example fall from 6349 to 5728 was corrected up to 6210 level but was unable to surpass 6349. Similarly fall from 6210 level to 5175 was corrected up to 6000 level but was not able to surpass 6210. So if we believe in this observation, this time fall from 5760 level to 4718 has corrected up to 5385 till date but will not surpass 5760." As I write this post global markets are all down on sovereign crisis in European countries and we are closed on Thursday. We are likely to open lower than 5200 on Friday. The lull that we saw in last 2 days of markets trading in extreme small range was an indication that storm is coming. It is likely that we might break the range on lower side with a caveat that we need to see on closing basis whether we are able to close above 5200 levels or not. If we close above it, there is a chance that we might touch 5400 levels once again but if not which is more likely than we are again starting a journey towards 4700 levels.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi.
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