Derivatives Daily Update: August 30 2012

Stable Expiry Day: August 30, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5306.90 up by 10.30 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10065.85 up by 31.15 points. Open Interest in Nifty though not use worthy was up by 10 lakh shares at 3.33 Cr shares. Any way September series Open Interest was up by 51 lakh shares which is a huge jump. Turnover was up at Rs 2.59 trillion obviously due to roll over activity. Put Call Ratio was at 0.87. Volatility as measured by India VIX was at 16.67 slightly down from yesterday’s level and Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 55.87 up from yesterday’s level. In all it was a stable expiry.

As we closed below 5300 yesterday, likely down ward target for short term were 5270 and 5230. We went few points down 5270 but have survived 5230 which is a turning point for change in trend. Unless we break 5230 on closing level, fall from higher level will be considered a healthy correction and we might move towards achieving 5500 and subsequently 5630. My advice to traders would be to go long with Stop loss below 5230. If we break 5230 in coming few days than it is advisable to close all long positions and wait for couple of days to decide future trend.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 29 2012

Weakness Persists: August 29, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5296.60 down by 49.45 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10034.7 down by 55.75 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series came down by 3.15 lakh shares at 3.24 Cr shares. Turnover was almost same at Rs 1.70 trillion. Put Call Ratio was pegged at 0.87 way below 1 which is not a good sign as traders are losing confidence and Option writers are writing Calls and squaring off Puts. Traders are no more gung ho about the markets. Volatility as measured by India VIX was up by 2% at 16.74 and Dollar Rupee pair was trading slightly lower at 55.67. In spite of the VIX not rising steeply and Dollar Rupee pair trading favorably, we saw fall in price of Nifty by nearly 1% which indicates some more pain tomorrow.

Today we have closed below 5300 which doesn’t augur well for markets as it has opened probability of market touching 5275 and if fall below this level than 5230. Any way still medium to long term trend has not vitiated as long as we remain above 5230. Medium to long term traders can still buy with 5230 as ultimate stop loss. For short term traders selling, with price objective of 5300 was advised which was achieved today. Any way if tomorrow Nifty doesn’t move above 5325 it is advisable to sell with price target of 5275 and 5230.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 28 2012

Weakness Continues: August 28, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5346.05 down by 16.35 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10090.45 down by 87 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series was up by 25 lakh shares at 3.27 Cr shares. Turnover was higher at Rs 1.73 trillion partly due to roll over activity. Put Call Ratio across all the series was slightly lower at 1.03. Volatility as measured by India VIX was slightly lower at 16.35 and Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 55.70. Despite any improvement in VIX markets are falling which doesn’t augur well, if VIX start rising steeply it will have negative impact on Nifty. Even increase in Open Interest on a down day is not a good sign for market.

I still hold that we will retest 5300 before we move further up. Today we saw a low of 5320 intraday. Any way if we don’t fall below 5230 on closing basis upside targets of 5500 & 5630 are still achievable. Short term traders have an opportunity to sell with stop loss of 5380 and for medium term traders any price near 5300 is buying opportunity with stop below 5230 and price target of 5500.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 27 2012

Weak Day: August 27, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5362.40 down by 40.30 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10177.45 down by 189.50 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series was up by 8 lakh shares at 3.02 Cr shares indicating fresh shorts being created in the market. Turnover was lower at Rs 1.19 trillion. Put Call Ratio also saw a fall and was pegged at 1.05 indicating Puts being squared off and Call being written by Option writers. Volatility as measured by India VIX was up by 2% at 16.47 and Dollar Rupee pair was trading higher at 55.64. Statistics doesn’t augur well for markets as Open Interest on a down day has increased and Put Call Ratio has fallen indicating shaken sentiment among traders.

As said in previous day’s post that probably we are heading for 5300 first and once we sustain that level and don’t fall below 5230, target price of 5500 and subsequently 5630 are achievable. I stick to my opinion and advice traders to trade accordingly. For extremely short term traders (day traders) sell with stop loss above 5380 with price target of 5300. For medium to long term traders every dip is a buying opportunity till 5300 level is held.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 24 2012

Profit Booking Day: August 24, 2012

Nifty Futures closed at 5402.70 down by 24.45 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10366.95 down by 116.20 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series almost unchanged at 2.94 Cr shares. Turnover too was almost unchanged at Rs 1.29 trillion. Put Call Ratio was also unchanged at 1.22. Even Volatility as measured by India VIX was almost unchanged at 16.16. Dollar Rupee pair was trading slightly higher at 55.49. In all it was a eventless day and witnessed some amount of day trading activity with marginal negative bias.

In my opinion, Nifty is consolidating after continuous winning streak from last couple of weeks. Today after many days we saw lower top lower bottom formation which indicates some profit booking at higher levels or alternatively no new buying coming at higher levels. As traders didn’t saw further follow up in buying interest they squared off their positions. I still believe that as long as we remain above 5300, target price of 5500 and 5630 are achievable. Only worry is VIX. If it starts moving up we might witness pressure on Nifty and before touching targets on upper side, we might go and test 5300. Traders are advised to remain cautious and trade with strict stop loss.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 23 2012

Day of Consolidation: August 23, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5427.15 marginally down by 3.95 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10483.15 down by 24.40 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all series was up by 1.93 lakh shares at 2.94 Cr shares. Turnover was up at Rs 1.30 trillion. Put Call Ratio across all the series for both Index & Stock Options was almost unchanged at 1.21. Volatility as measured by India VIX was marginally up at 16.12 and Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 55.22 slightly down from yesterday’s level. In all it was a day of consolidation though nifty today also made a higher high than yesterday.

I believe that we are in intermediate uptrend and every dip in the market invites some buying which helps market to pull back. As long as we are above 5300 on a broad basis target of 5500 and subsequent to that 5630 is very much likely. Only reason to worry is VIX. It might shoot up a bit as it is trading at its lowest level which in turn might put pressure on price of Nifty. Anyway even VIX is not likely to move up behind 18-19 in a hurry. My advice therefore is to buy in every dip with adequate stop loss.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 22 2012

Profit Booking Day: August 22, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5431.10 down by 10.80 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10507.55 down by 4.45 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series was up by 1 lakh shares at 2.92 Cr shares. Turnover was up from yesterday’s level at Rs 1.07 trillion. Put Call Ratio was at 1.20. Volatility as measured by India VIX was 16 and Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 55.46. In all it was a profit booking day.

My prognosis still is skewed towards market going upwards and achieve the price target of 5500 and subsequent to that 5630. My advice is to buy every dip with adequate stop loss.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 17 2012

Listless Closing: August 17, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed absolutely flat at 5382.35. Bank Nifty closed at 10460.95 down by 11.75 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series was down by 1 lakh shares at 2.80 Cr shares. Turnover was smartly up at Rs 1.25 trillion. Put Call Ratio was at 1.11 slightly up from yesterday’s level. Volatility as measured by India VIX was at 15.73 almost unchanged from yesterday’s level. Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 55.79 down from yesterday’s level. Nifty traded in a range of 5350-5425. In all it was a day of consolidation amidst gyrations from news of coal scam although it gave a listless closing.

I still hold my positive view as long as Nifty remains above 5300 in short term and 5200 for slightly medium term. VIX is trading at its lowest point and some upward correction is due which in turn will cap up move in Nifty for short term. Once VIX completes it correction, up move in Nifty will resume which might take us to 5500 and beyond that 5630. In extremely short run we might visit support area of 5200-5300. Trading is advisable strictly with stop loss.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 16 2012

Day of Correction: August 16, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5382 down by 24.85 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10472.7 down by 103.65 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series came down by 63k shares at 2.81 Cr shares. Turnover was lower than yesterday at Rs 863 bn. Put Call Ratio across all the series for both Stock & Index Options was lower at 1.03 indicating some Calls being written against Puts as participants were witnessing some profit booking in the market. Volatility as measured by India VIX was up at 15.69 and Dollar Rupee pair was trading higher at 55.98. In all it was a dy of profit booking at higher level and we may witness some correction in the market tomorrow too.

My prognosis has not changed much. I still believe that we are in intermediate uptrend as long as we remain above 5188 for medium term and 5298 for short term. All dips to these levels are buying opportunity until we breach the same. My advice is to hold your longs with price target of 5500 and subsequent to that 5630.

 Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 14 2012

Resilient Day: August 14, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5406.85 up by 34.95 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10576.35 up by 116.50 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series even today saw increase by 8.27 lakh shares at 2.82 Cr shares. Turnover was Rs 1.09 trillion better from yesterday’s level. Put Call Ratio was 1.14 almost unchanged from yesterday’s level. Volatility as measured by India VIX was at its 52 wk low at 15.64 and Dollar Rupee pair was trading higher at 55.80.  In all it was a resilient day. Option writers wrote Put Options of 5200 5300 & 5400 series and squared off Call options for the same series. Some profit booking is expected as VIX was trading at its lowest and there is a chance that it might shoot up a bit which in turn will put pressure on price.

Once again my belief that we are in intermediate uptrend is vindicated today. Market participants are confident about the up move as it is also supported by reduced volatility. As long as we remain above 5275 which is short term moving average we are comfortably heading towards first target of 5500 and above that 5630. My advice is to hold on to your long positions with stop loss below 5275.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 13 2012

Better Day: August 13, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5371.9 up by 26.8 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10459.85 up by 35.15 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series was up by 10.41 lakh shares at 2.63 Cr shares which augur well for the market especially when markets have closed higher than previous days as it indicates mopping up of positions by Bulls. Turnover was at Rs 835 bn. Put Call Ratio was up at 1.15 which also indicates bullish sentiments as participants were writing more Puts against Calls as they see market moving up in near futures. Volatility as measured by India VIX was almost unchanged at 16.01 again helping the market from unwarranted choppiness. Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 55.51. In all it was a better trading day than previous one.

My prognosis that we are in intermediate uptrend is once again vindicated today. Target price in Nifty of 5500 is achievable provided, in coming days we don’t fall below 5200. My advice is to hold on long positions in Nifty with adequate stop loss.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 10 2012

Stable day: August 10 2012

I stick to my earlier stand of bullish sentiment in market. Buy Nifty with stop loss below 5200 with price target of 5500.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 9 2012

Day of Consolidation: August 9, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5350.05 down by 4.70 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10505.70 down by 53.45 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series was up by 3,26 lakh shares at 2.59 Cr shares. Turnover was lower than yesterday at Rs 1.03 trillion. Put Call Ratio across all the series for both Index and Stock Options was at 1.01 up from yesterday’s level. Volatility as measured by India VIX was lower at 16.33 and Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 55.45 almost unchanged from yesterday’s level. In all it was a range bound day with negative bias in banking shares.

In my opinion we are consolidating in a range and as long as we remain above 5200 we will break this range on upper side with potential target of 5500. Only cause of worry is banking shares which are giving in their gains and as Banks form important part of Nifty composition it might drag Nifty down. As of now Nifty is getting support from other components especially FMCG and Reliance. Technically, I am bullish in the market but as always it is safe to play with adequate Stop loss.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 8 2012

Steady Day: August 8, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5354.75 up by 7.05 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10559.15 down by 61.35 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series was up by 5.94 lakh shares at 2.56 Cr shares. Turnover was better from yesterday at 1.16 trillion. Put Call Ratio across all the series was down below 1 at 0.98. Volatility as measured by India VIX was up at 16.37 and Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 55.44. It was an marginally up day but some profit booking was witnessed at higher level.

I stick to my earlier stand that we are in intermediate bull zone and as long as we are not closing below 5200 every dip is an opportunity to buy with potential target of 5500.

I have discontinued with daily detailed statistics as readers are interested only in what is going to happen in future rather than what has happened in past.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 7 2012

Better Day: August 7, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5347.70 up by 50.85 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10620.50 up by 122 points. Open Interest in Nifty was up by 8.63 lakh shares at 2.50 Cr shares across all the series. Turnover was up from yesterday’s level at Rs 1.11 trillion. Put Call Ratio across all the series for both Index & Stock Options was slightly up at 1.03. Volatility as measured by India VIX was almost unchanged at 16.21 and Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 55.30. In all it was a resilient day with upward bias.

In my opinion, as long as we are above 5100-5150 range which also coincides with medium to long term averages and 5200 which is short term average we are in a bullish zone and every dip to this level is a buying opportunity and any such correction should be bought in. Potential book profit level is 5500. It is advisable to trade keeping in mind 5100 as potential stop loss level.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives DAILY Update: August 6 2012

Bulls Day: August 6, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5296.85 up by 55.8 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10498.5 up by 114.10 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series was up by 1.70 lakh shares at 2.41 Cr shares. Turnover was lower at Rs 883 bn. Put Call Ratio came down to 0.97 from 1.04 level of previous day. Volatility as measured by India VIX was marginally up at 16.22 and Dollar Rupee pair was trading lower at 55.67. In all it was a better day with upward bias.

As said in several earlier posts, as long as we remain above 5100 every dip is an opportunity to buy with first price target at 5350 and beyond that 5500. I once again reiterate the same view albeit with stop loss below 5100.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were BALRAMCHIN 6%, RECLTD 6%, BOMDYEING 6%, RELIANCE 6% and GSPL 4%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were BPCL -3%, INDIACEM -3%, HINDPETRO -2%, IOC -2% and DABUR -2%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, RELIANCE, ICICIBANK, AXISBANK and TATASTEEL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were RELIANCE 780CE, RELIANCE 760CE, RELIANCE 780CE, SBIN 2100CE and SBIN 1950PE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5300CE (5.54 LK) 5400CE (11.11 LK) 5500CE (3.54 LK) 5600CE (8.87 LK) 5000PE (1.23 LK) 5100CE (3.57 LK) 5200CE (3.79 LK) 5300CE (14.44 LK) 5400CE (3.67 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4900CE (2.60 LK) 5000CE (2.82 LK) 5100CE (2.01 LK) 5200CE (5.63 LK) 4700PE (13.11 LK) 4800PE (3.57 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.70 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.04 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 94.24 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 74.59 LK shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.31.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 3 2012

Day of Consolidation: August 3 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5241.05 down by just 5.65 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10384.4 down by 44.30 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series came down by 1.44 lakh shares at 2.40 Cr shares. Turnover was higher at Rs 1 trillion. Put Call Ratio across all the series for both Index and Stock Options was pegged at 1.04 up from yesterday’s level. PCR for Nifty alone in current series was 1.35. Volatility as measured by India VIX was placed at 16.12 down by 4%. Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 56.10 slightly up from yesterday’s level. In all it was a day of consolidation and extremely range bound trading day.

In my opinion, nothing has changed which will compel me to change my view. In my opinion as far as we are trading above 5100 level on closing basis any intra dip is an opportunity to buy. First price target can be placed at 5350 and there after 5500. Stop loss as suitable to you or ultimate stop below 5100.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were ONMOBILE 10%, OFSS 6%, MRF 6%, BALRAMCHIN 6% and TECHM 6%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were RECLTD -4%, SREINFRA -4%, MRPL -3%, GVKPIL -3% and ADANIENT -3%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, MCDOWELL, TATASTEEL and LT.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2000CE, SBIN 2100CE, SBIN 2000PE, SBIN 2050CE and LT 1400CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5300CE (8.05 LK) 5400CE (1.73 LK) 5500CE (9.83 LK) 5000PE (8.29 LK) 5100PE (3.58 LK) 5300PE (4.01 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4700PE (4.06 LK) 4800PE (5.28 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.40 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.12 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.08 CR shares and that of Put Options stood at 56.57 LK shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.35.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 2 2012

Lackluster Day: August 2, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5246.7 down by 9.60points. Bank Nifty closed at 10428.7 down by 36.85 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all series saw an improvement by 2.59 lakh shares at 2.41 Cr shares. Turnover was abysmally low at Rs 556 bn. Put Call Ratio across all the series for both Index and Stock Option was below 1 at 0.98. Volatility as measured by India VIX was up by 2% at 16.77 and Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 56.03 up from yesterday’s level. In all it was a lackluster day and tiredness amongst the traders was witnessed in the market.

It seems that we are in consolidation zone and as long as we are above 5100, every dip should be utilized to Buy with a price objective of 5350 and stop loss below 5100.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were CUMMINS 7%, MCDOWELL 6%, BEL 5%, ASHOKLEY 4% and NTPC 4%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were CAIRN -2% HINDPETRO -2%, NMDC -2%, TATAMOTORS -2% and UNITECH -2%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, MCDOWELL, ICICIBANK, AXISBANK and TATASTEEL.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2100CE, SBIN 2000PE, SBIN 2050CE, SBIN 2000CE and SBIN 2150CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5200CE (3.18 LK) 5300CE (5.14 LK) 5400CE (3.23 LK) 5500CE (6.81 LK) 5600CE (3.04 LK) 5700CE (1.27 LK) 4400PE (3.20 LK) 4800PE (3.74 LK) 5000PE (9.77 LK) 5100PE (1.52 LK) 5200PE (2.90 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100CE (1.41 LK) 4900PE (1.62 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.27 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.10 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.09 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 52.7 LK shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.38.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi

Derivatives Daily Update: August 1 2012

Resilient Day: August 1, 2012

Nifty August Futures closed at 5256.3 up by 15.75 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10465.55 up by 30.25 points. Open Interest in Nifty across all the series was up by 1.59 lakh shares at 2.38 Cr shares. Turnover was lower at Rs 815 bn. Put Call Ratio was placed at 1.07 slightly up from yesterday’s level. PCR for current series in Nifty alone too was higher at 1.40. Volatility as measured by India VIX was up by 3% at 16.45. Dollar Rupee pair was trading higher at 55.78. In all it was a resilient day with upward bias.

As can be seen from the data of previous couple of days, we are consolidating around this level and it seems that we have made some kind of intermediate bottom around 5100 level which coincides with medium to long term moving averages. As long as we are able to hold this level, first target can be placed at 5350 levels and beyond that 5500. My advice is to ride on your longs with suitable stop loss.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were CENTURYTEX 6%, RECLTD 6%, VIPIND 5%, AIL 5% and BEL 5%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were COALINDIA -3%, VOLTAS -2%, ONGC -2%, SKUMARSYNF -2% and SESAGOA -2%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATAMOTORS, CENTURYTEX & JPASSOCIAT.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 2100CE, SBIN 2000PE, SBIN 2050CE, SBIN 2000CE and RELIANCE 760CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5300CE (1.14 LK) 5400CE (3.51 LK) 5500CE (10.33 LK) 5600CE (1.82 LK) 4800PE (9.92 LK) 5000PE (3.04 LK) 5100PE (5.27 LK) 5200PE (11.47 LK) 5300PE (2.49 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100CE (2.88 LK) 5200CE (1.22 LK) 5700CE (1.39 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.10 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.92 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.09 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 53.01 LK shares. Put Call Ratio of current series alone stands at 1.40.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi