Downward Journey Continues: 21.11.2011
Today was a ninth day in a row when we have seen Nifty November Futures has closed lower than respective previous session. Nifty November Futures after opening lower was not able to come back at all and closed at 4783.30 down by 131.30. Ditto for Bank Nifty as it too closed lower at 8555.45 down by 303.80 points. Trading volumes were lower than yesterday but Open Interest in Nifty across all the Series have substantially increased by 25 lac shares. Bank Nifty too saw lower volume and increase in Open Interest by 1 lac shares. Increase in Open Interest when price is substantially down doesn't augur well for Bulls as it indicates fresh shorts being created in market. Put Call Ratio too closed lower at 0.86 again confirming that traders were weary writing puts and they were writing calls. It also means that traders don't believe markets moving upward in near future. Volatility as measured bu India VIX shot up by 8% and closed at 28.61 which also indicates that traders in the markets perceive higher risk in trading. All in all after consolidation for just one day markets have again tanked and doesn't indicate any recovery in near future.
Top Five Individual Stocks which saw higher volumes were SBIN ICICIBANK TATASTEEL LT DLF. Top Five Individual Stocks which managed to close higher were JISLJAL 3% GMRINFRA 2% DABUR 2% AUROPHARMA 2% and ONMOBILE 2%. Top Five Individual Stocks which lost ground were VIPIND -14% PANTALOON -13% DELTACORP -12% ABAN -12% and JINDALSWHL -11%.
Top Five Individual Stock Option Series which attracted higher volumes were SBIN 1700 CE SBIN 1750 CE SBIN 1700 PE RELIANCE 800 CE and SBIN 1800 CE.
Nifty Option Series where POSITIVE change in Open Interest was seen were 4700 CE (9.5 lac) 4800 CE (18.70 lac) 4900 CE (12.40 lac) 5000 CE (5.97 lac) 5100 CE (1 lac) 4500 PE (3.50 lac) 4600 PE (5.35 lac) 4700 PE (8.07 lac) 4800 PE (3.85 lac). Nifty Option Series where NEGATIVE change in Open Interest was seen were 5300 CE (-1.68 lac) 5400 CE (-1.77 lac) 5500 CE (-1.50 lac) 4900 PE (-4.65 lac) 5000 PE (-2.81 lac) 5100 PE (-5.55 lac) 5200 PE (-1.64 lac). Outstanding Open Interest in Out of the Money Put Option was 1.59 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 4.93 Cr shares. Outstanding Open Interest in In the Money Put Option was 1.93 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 15 lac shares.
To conclude, As today's caption says Downward Journey Continues. I have said oft-repeatedly that we are in long term bear market and we will revisit earlier low of 4718. Markets have almost come in to the vicinity of that region. Whether we break this level and make a new low or consolidate around this region as the level of 4780 is 200 week's moving average, only time will tell. Till that time one should not confuse himself and trade short with suitable and meaningful stop.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi.
Today was a ninth day in a row when we have seen Nifty November Futures has closed lower than respective previous session. Nifty November Futures after opening lower was not able to come back at all and closed at 4783.30 down by 131.30. Ditto for Bank Nifty as it too closed lower at 8555.45 down by 303.80 points. Trading volumes were lower than yesterday but Open Interest in Nifty across all the Series have substantially increased by 25 lac shares. Bank Nifty too saw lower volume and increase in Open Interest by 1 lac shares. Increase in Open Interest when price is substantially down doesn't augur well for Bulls as it indicates fresh shorts being created in market. Put Call Ratio too closed lower at 0.86 again confirming that traders were weary writing puts and they were writing calls. It also means that traders don't believe markets moving upward in near future. Volatility as measured bu India VIX shot up by 8% and closed at 28.61 which also indicates that traders in the markets perceive higher risk in trading. All in all after consolidation for just one day markets have again tanked and doesn't indicate any recovery in near future.
Top Five Individual Stocks which saw higher volumes were SBIN ICICIBANK TATASTEEL LT DLF. Top Five Individual Stocks which managed to close higher were JISLJAL 3% GMRINFRA 2% DABUR 2% AUROPHARMA 2% and ONMOBILE 2%. Top Five Individual Stocks which lost ground were VIPIND -14% PANTALOON -13% DELTACORP -12% ABAN -12% and JINDALSWHL -11%.
Top Five Individual Stock Option Series which attracted higher volumes were SBIN 1700 CE SBIN 1750 CE SBIN 1700 PE RELIANCE 800 CE and SBIN 1800 CE.
Nifty Option Series where POSITIVE change in Open Interest was seen were 4700 CE (9.5 lac) 4800 CE (18.70 lac) 4900 CE (12.40 lac) 5000 CE (5.97 lac) 5100 CE (1 lac) 4500 PE (3.50 lac) 4600 PE (5.35 lac) 4700 PE (8.07 lac) 4800 PE (3.85 lac). Nifty Option Series where NEGATIVE change in Open Interest was seen were 5300 CE (-1.68 lac) 5400 CE (-1.77 lac) 5500 CE (-1.50 lac) 4900 PE (-4.65 lac) 5000 PE (-2.81 lac) 5100 PE (-5.55 lac) 5200 PE (-1.64 lac). Outstanding Open Interest in Out of the Money Put Option was 1.59 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 4.93 Cr shares. Outstanding Open Interest in In the Money Put Option was 1.93 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 15 lac shares.
To conclude, As today's caption says Downward Journey Continues. I have said oft-repeatedly that we are in long term bear market and we will revisit earlier low of 4718. Markets have almost come in to the vicinity of that region. Whether we break this level and make a new low or consolidate around this region as the level of 4780 is 200 week's moving average, only time will tell. Till that time one should not confuse himself and trade short with suitable and meaningful stop.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi.
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