Downward Spiral Continues: 19 December 2011
Nifty December Futures after opening below 4600 continues its downward spiral till 4561.25 and bounced back to 4634.40, finally closing lower at 4623.85 down by 19.30 points. Bank Nifty December Futures too opened weak and even closed weaker at 7924.40 down by 215.40 points. Volumes were lower than yesterday in both Index & Stock Futures and Options. Open Interest in Nifty Futures across all the series came down by 5.03 lakh shares and that of Bank Nifty was up by 63000 shares. Put Call Ratio was almost unchanged at 0.89. Volatility as measured by India VIX was up by 3% at 30.59. Dollar Rupee pair was trading at 53.05.
In my opinion nothing materially has happened to change my stance of bearish markets. Day by day Nifty shows weakness and downward journey towards the range of 4300 – 4500 level continues. Though Nifty has bounced back from make or break level of 4550 today, nothing suggests that in coming days we will be able to sustain this level of 4550. Once this level is taken out we will test 4280, this level is supposed to find a good support as it is 50 % Fibonacci Retracement level of larger range (2228 -6349). But till than as we don’t see any other signs of market stopping the downward journey except Nifty becoming oversold on certain traditional parameters, it is advisable to hold short and ride the downward wave.
Those who want to see some statistics of today, they are presented below:
Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were SBIN, ICICIBANK, AXISBANK, RELIANCE and TATAMOTORS.
Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were SBIN 1700 CE, SBIN 1600 PE, SBIN 1800 CE, SBIN 1650 CE and RELIANCE 740 CE.
Top five individual stocks which gained today were TRIVENI 9%, RENUKA 6%, TATAMOTORS 4%, CAIRN 4% and GVKPIL 4%.
Top five individual stocks which lost ground were BATAINDIA -11 %, MERCATOR -10%, ORCHIDCHEM -9%, HCC -9% and 3IINFOTECH -8%.
Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 4500 CE (7.12 LK) 4600 CE (9.49 LK) 4700 CE (3.35 LK) 4800 CE (2.83 LK) 4900 CE (6.45 LK) 5100 CE (1.09 LK) 4000 PE (1.03 LK) 4200 PE (6.28 LK) 4400 PE (15.14 LK) 4500 PE (9.45 LK) 4600 PE (3.45 LK).
Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5200 CE (-1.74 LK) 5300 CE (-2.84 LK) 5400 CE (-1.03 LK) 5500 CE (-1.09 LK) 4300 PE (-3.51 LK) 4700 PE (-10.54 LK) 4800 PE (-5.15 LK) 4900 PE (-1.79 LK) 5000 PE (-1.09 LK)
Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 5.50 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.41 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 71.17 LK shares and that of Put Options stood at 1.99 Cr shares.
FII’s (provisional data) Sold Index Futures worth 1008 Cr Sold Index Options worth 53 Cr. Sold Stock Futures worth 28 Cr and sold Stock Options worth 10 Cr.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi
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