Down Breakout Day: 11.11.2011
Nifty November Futures opened much lower at 5189.85 down by 121 points but managed to closed at 5191.75 lower by 45.35 points. Bank Nifty November Futures opened lower by 310 points at 9575.55 and closed at 9320 down by 285.65 points. Bank nifty saw more weakness as it was not able to recover to the extent of recovery in Nifty. Volumes both quantity wise as well as value wise were higher than yesterday but Nifty witnessed reduction in Open Interest by 4.56 lac shares signifying some Bull unwinding in the market. On the Contrary Bank Nifty witnessed increase in Open Interest by 1.64 lac shares signifying some fresh shorts created in the market. Put Call Ratio was fairly stable at 0.93 almost unchanged and Volatility as measured by India VIX was ruling at 24.74 up by marginally 2%.
Five Top Individual Stocks which attracted higher activity were SBIN ICICIBANK RELIANCE TATASTEEL AXISBANK. Top Five Gainers list included HINOILEXP 8% ALOKTEXR 5% TATACOMM 4% APOLLOTYRE 3% and M&M 3%. Top Five Losers were EDUCOMP -11% KFA -9% MCDOWELL -8% PANTALOON -8% and KSOILS -7%.
Five Top Individual Stock Options which attracted higher volumes were SBIN 1900 CE SBIN 1800 PE SBIN 2000 CE SBIN 1850 CE and SBIN 1950 CE.
Nifty Option Series where increase in Open Interest was witnessed were 5100 CE ( 4 lac) 5200 CE (15 lac) 5400 CE ( 3 lac) 5500 CE ( 2lac) 4700 PE ( 3 lac) 4800 PE ( 9 lac) 5100 ( 5 lac). Nifty Option Series where decrease in Open Interest was witnessed were 5600 CE ( -4 lac) 4900 PE (-4 lac) 5200 CE (-6 lac) 5300 PE ( - 8 lac). Out of the Money Open Interest in Put Options was 3.29 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 2.91 Cr shares. In the Money Open Interest in Put Option was 97 lac shares and that of Call Option was 45 lac shares.
Analysis of price movement, volume data as well as technical charts vindicates my stand that markets are poised to go down and we will try and test recent low of 4718 or probably might break this level and make a new bottom anywhere between 4500 -4700 level. Caveat as said in yesterday's post that it should decisively break 5200 or precisely 5175 level. Today intra day Nifty has breached this level but managed to close near 5200 level. Any way though in shorter time frame probability of Nifty touching its 200 days moving average ( DMA ) both exponential and simple which are placed at 5340 & 5398 still exists, in longer time frame 4700 is very much the possibility.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi
Nifty November Futures opened much lower at 5189.85 down by 121 points but managed to closed at 5191.75 lower by 45.35 points. Bank Nifty November Futures opened lower by 310 points at 9575.55 and closed at 9320 down by 285.65 points. Bank nifty saw more weakness as it was not able to recover to the extent of recovery in Nifty. Volumes both quantity wise as well as value wise were higher than yesterday but Nifty witnessed reduction in Open Interest by 4.56 lac shares signifying some Bull unwinding in the market. On the Contrary Bank Nifty witnessed increase in Open Interest by 1.64 lac shares signifying some fresh shorts created in the market. Put Call Ratio was fairly stable at 0.93 almost unchanged and Volatility as measured by India VIX was ruling at 24.74 up by marginally 2%.
Five Top Individual Stocks which attracted higher activity were SBIN ICICIBANK RELIANCE TATASTEEL AXISBANK. Top Five Gainers list included HINOILEXP 8% ALOKTEXR 5% TATACOMM 4% APOLLOTYRE 3% and M&M 3%. Top Five Losers were EDUCOMP -11% KFA -9% MCDOWELL -8% PANTALOON -8% and KSOILS -7%.
Five Top Individual Stock Options which attracted higher volumes were SBIN 1900 CE SBIN 1800 PE SBIN 2000 CE SBIN 1850 CE and SBIN 1950 CE.
Nifty Option Series where increase in Open Interest was witnessed were 5100 CE ( 4 lac) 5200 CE (15 lac) 5400 CE ( 3 lac) 5500 CE ( 2lac) 4700 PE ( 3 lac) 4800 PE ( 9 lac) 5100 ( 5 lac). Nifty Option Series where decrease in Open Interest was witnessed were 5600 CE ( -4 lac) 4900 PE (-4 lac) 5200 CE (-6 lac) 5300 PE ( - 8 lac). Out of the Money Open Interest in Put Options was 3.29 Cr shares and that of Call Option was 2.91 Cr shares. In the Money Open Interest in Put Option was 97 lac shares and that of Call Option was 45 lac shares.
Analysis of price movement, volume data as well as technical charts vindicates my stand that markets are poised to go down and we will try and test recent low of 4718 or probably might break this level and make a new bottom anywhere between 4500 -4700 level. Caveat as said in yesterday's post that it should decisively break 5200 or precisely 5175 level. Today intra day Nifty has breached this level but managed to close near 5200 level. Any way though in shorter time frame probability of Nifty touching its 200 days moving average ( DMA ) both exponential and simple which are placed at 5340 & 5398 still exists, in longer time frame 4700 is very much the possibility.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi
very nice atulbhai.!!!nice updated
ReplyDelete@ Urvish Shah (B.R.Shah Stock Broking PVt. LTd _ Ahmedabad)