Day of Consolidation: February 10, 2012
Nifty February Futures closed at 5397.65 down by 39.40 points. Bank Nifty closed at 10465.20 down by 86.35 points. Volumes were higher on both Futures and Options segment of the market. Open Interest in Nifty Futures across all the series came down by 8.90 lk shares and stood at 2.88 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio was at 1.10 slightly lower from yesterday’s level. Volatility as measured by India VIX was ruling at 23.93 up by nearly 2%. Dollar rupee pair was almost unchanged at 49.63. All in all it was a day of consolidation and higher level attracted some profit booking as reflected by reduction in Open Interest as well as reduction in Put Call Ratio.
My prognosis remains that of bullish scenario but it needs to be supported by upward price movement above 5400 or it should not significantly break down as still 5400 level is sacrosanct level and carries significant importance. There are two schools of thought. Those who believe that we are in a bear market argue that the bear trend which started roughly from 6300 to 4500 has probability of correcting up to 5400 which is 50% retracement or 5650 which is 61.8% retracement. If it is unable to survive this level bear trend will again resume which might take us below the low we made around 4500 levels. Another class which thinks that we are structurally in Bull market which started from 2500 odd level made a top at 6350 level and has corrected less than 50%which has ended at 4500 and uptrend has again resumed which will help in breaking the earlier high and make a new high above 6350 levels. For both the schools this range of 5400 -5650 is very important. My advice is to trade cautiously with upward bias but buying protection is very important.
Top five individual stocks which gained today were JINDALSAW 9%,, MRF 8%, IFCI 7%, POLARIS 7% and CUMMINSIND 7%.
Top five individual stocks which lost ground were AUROPHARMA -6%, HOTELEELA -6%, VIPIND -5%, IVRCLINFRA -5% and IBREALEST -5%.
Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were TATASTEEL, SBIN, ICICIBANK, DLF and TATAMOTORS.
Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were TATAATEEL 480 CE, TATASTEEL 440 PE, TATASTEEL 500 CE, TATASTEEL 460 CE and TATASTEEL 460 PE.
Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5400 CE (4.80 LK) 5500 CE ( 9.51 LK) 5600 CE (7.21 LK) 5700 CE (5.02 LK) 5200 PE (2.59 LK) 5300 PE (2.86 LK) 5400 PE (7.22 LK).
Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 5100 CE (-1.04 LK) 5200 CE (-2.57 LK) 5300 CE (2.19 LK) 6100 CE (-1.59 LK) 4500 PE (-1 LK) 4700 PE (-1.23 LK) 4800 PE (-1.21 LK) 5000 PE (2.91 LK) 5100 PE (-1.73 LK) 5500 PE (-1.63 LK)
Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 2.22 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 4.99 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.22 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 72.85 Lk shares.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi
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