Day of Consolidation:
February 16, 2012
Nifty February Futures more or less traded in yesterday’s
range and closed at 5537.80 down by 14.75 points. Bank Nifty too followed the
trend by remaining in yesterday’s range and closed at 10948.10 down by 23.15
points. Volumes were lower than yesterday though Stock Futures saw increase in
volumes perhaps due to some early birds shifting their positions in to March
Series. Open Interest was marginally lower by 1.64 lakh shares and stood at
2.97 Cr shares. Put Call Ratio was further up to 1.27 from 1.16 levels
indicating participants are comfortable with momentum and they don’t mind
writing puts against calls. Volatility as measured by India VIX shot up to
23.33 from 22.1 up by nearly 6%. Dollar Rupee pair fairly remained stable at
49.39. All in all it seems that markets are consolidating after huge run and
will resume its uptrend once consolidation is over.
I believe that in short term we are headed towards 5650
levels and their we might pause for a
while and if no great supply comes at that level we might continue with
uptrend. Once we cross that level comfortably and sustainably, every dip after
that will be an opportunity to buy as than ground will be clear to achieve
earlier top and we might attempt to go beyond the earlier high and make a new
high. Alternatively if we fail to clear this level and fall miserably and go
below 5150 level than possibility of touching a new low is very much alive. All
I mean to say is that we are at such an inflection point where both the
possibilities exist. Watch the markets very carefully as coming series is full
of events including Budget and State elections.
Top five individual stocks which gained today were IFCI 12%,
SCI 11%, KTKBANK 9%, HDIL 8% and DCHL 8%.
Top five individual stocks which lost ground were COALINDIA
-6%, VOLTAS -6%, HINDALCO -55, INDUSINDBK -5%
and ZEEL -4%.
Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes
were SBIN, TATASTEEL, RELIANCE, TATAMOTORS and ICICIBANK.
Top five individual options which attracted higher activity
today were SBIN 2300 CE, SBIN 2400 CE, SBIN 2200 PE, SBIN 2350 CE and RELIANCE
840 CE.
Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest
was seen were 5500 CE (4.93 LK) 5600 CE (7.50 LK) 4400 PE (7.17 LK) 4900 PE
(1.30 LK) 5300 PE (8.64 LK) 5400 PE (9.10 LK) 5500 PE (5,46 LK) 5600 PE 92.44
LK)
Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest
was seen were 5200 CE (-1.02 LK) 5300 CE (-1.35 LK) 5400 CE (-2.42 LK) 5700 CE
(-4.08 LK) 5000 PE (-2.11 LK) 5100 PE (1.44 LK)
Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 1.29 Cr shares and that of
Put Options stood at 6.03 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.70
Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 87.28 Lk shares.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi
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