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Wednesday, 1 February 2012

Derivatives Daily Update: February 1, 2012


Upward Journey Continues: February 1, 2012

Nifty February Futures opened weak but bounced back during the day and closed at 5262.15 up by 38.80 points. It made higher top higher bottom today. Bank Nifty too closed marginally higher by 20.40 points at 9972.85. It too made higher top higher bottom formation. Volumes were higher than yesterday mainly in Index Options segment. Open Interest in Nifty across all the open series came down by 3.13 lakh shares indicating some short covering in the market. Put Call Ratio improved a bit to 0.93 levels from 0.89 level. Volatility as measured by India VIX was up by 1% at 22.89. Dollar Rupee pair was trading marginally lower at 49.69. All in all it was a good day for Bulls as choppiness in the market was lower and some kind of confidence was seen in the market.

As said in several posts if Nifty is able to sustain & trade above 5218, its 200 DMA, probability of market moving higher by 5 to 10% is very strong with some kind of resistance at 5400 level. My advice to hold on your long at least till 5400 and review at that point in time. Every fall from top use to correct maximum up to 75 % but this time, fall from 5135 to 4538 level was retraced fully and has moved above 5135 indicating bear trend which started from 6300 level ended at 4538 level and probably new uptrend has started from 4538 levels though confirmation of uptrend is needed which I hope will come in few days.

Top five individual stocks which gained today were IVRCLINFRA 13%, GTOFFSHORE 10%, IFCI 9%, PFC 9% and EKC 9%.

Top five individual stocks which lost ground were IOC -6%, TITAN -3%, TTKPRESTIG -3%, COALINDIA -3% and HINDPETRO -2%.

Top five individual stocks which attracted higher volumes were ICICIBANK, SBIN, TATASTEEL, TATAMOTORS and DLF.

Top five individual options which attracted higher activity today were ICICIBANK 900 CE, SBIN 2100 CE, RELIANCE 840 CE, IFCI 32 CE and RELIANCE 820 CE.

Nifty option series where POSITIVE change in open interest was seen were 5300 CE (9.38 LK) 5400 CE (10.40 LK) 5500 CE (12.58 LK) 5600  CE (3.87 LK) 5700 CE (1.79 LK) 4800 PE (2.37 LK) 4900 PE (1.52 LK) 5000 PE (9.08 LK) 5100 PE (8.57 LK) 5200 PE (6.80 LK) 5300 PE (7.79 LK) 5400 PE (3.78 LK)

Nifty option series where NEGATIVE change in open interest was seen were 4900 CE (-1.29 LK) 5200 CE (-4.11 LK) 4700 PE (-2.42 LK)

Outstanding open interest in Out of the Money Call Options stood at 1.84 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 3.97 Cr shares. Outstanding open interest in In the Money Call Options stood at 1.33 Cr shares and that of Put Options stood at 35 Lk shares.

Happy Trading

Atul Doshi
                                            

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