Derivatives Update:07.09.2011
Nifty September Futures continued its journey upwards closing at 5117.2 up by 56.1 points. Bank Nifty also followed the trend and closed at 9834.35 up by 174.75. Nifty Futures touched the high of 5149 making a handsome gain of 431 points from its recent low.Similarly Bank Nifty touched a high of 9894 gaining 976 points from its low of 8917.95 made on 26.08.2011. Both the indices have corrected nearly 38.2% (Important Fibonacci No.)of their last bear leg.
Surprisingly, Data from volume charts doesn't impress me. As can be seen from the above figures Traded Quantity, No.of Contracts traded and No.Of trades in September Nifty Futures were all lower than Yesterday. Even Open Interest absolutely was almost unchanged. Improvement in prices of Indices was not supported by Volumes which signifies that shorts have covered in the markets and longs have unwinded as we are approaching important resistance level of 5175.
We are at crucial juncture in the markets. Whether we will be able to breach 5239 (50% Fibonacci No) retracement level and 5362 (61.8% Fibonacci No.) retracement level in coming days needs to be watched carefully. If we are able to break this level & trade above 5362 levels for few trading sessions, it can be construed that we have formed & found the reasonable bottom of 4718. If not able to do so we once again might go to test this low and God forbid, if we break this low we might be headed towards much lower levels.
Another interesting observation is that, bear trend started from 6349 it stopped at 5175 taking 67 trading sessions and corrected up to 6000(61.8% of fall) taking 36 trading sessions to correct. It resumed its bear trend from 6000 & stopped at 5182 taking 50 trading sessions and corrected up to 5760 (61.8% of fall) taking 14 trading sessions to correct. It again resumed its bear trend from 5760 and stopped at 4718 taking 34 trading sessions. Now observation is, if it moves beyond 5362 (61.8% of fall) in lesser days and trade above this levels it can be validly argued that we have ended the bear trend at 4718 which started from 6349. New uptrend will be assumed to be started from 4718. This is technical observation and let us see it is vindicated in coming days or not.
Till that time we will have to respect the markets. We will have to accept the fact that all this resistance levels are crucial hurdles and unless we decisively cross it my advise is to short the Nifty Futures with respective stop at 5175 and 5362.
Among Stock Futures Reliance Ind, State Bank, Tata Motors. DLF and ICICI were top traded counters by volume. Top gainers list included IVRCL Infra +14% Unitech +8% Mercator Lines +7% Triveni Eng+7% Adani Power +7%. Top losers were Jubilant Foods -4% Lupin -3% GMDC -3% TTK Prestige -3% United Phos -3%
| SYMBOL | EXPIRY | OPEN | HIGH | LOW | CLOSE | CHG |
| NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 5095 | 5149 | 5078.25 | 5117.2 | 56.1 |
| BANKNIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 9701.05 | 9894 | 9701.05 | 9834.35 | 174.75 |
Nifty September Futures continued its journey upwards closing at 5117.2 up by 56.1 points. Bank Nifty also followed the trend and closed at 9834.35 up by 174.75. Nifty Futures touched the high of 5149 making a handsome gain of 431 points from its recent low.Similarly Bank Nifty touched a high of 9894 gaining 976 points from its low of 8917.95 made on 26.08.2011. Both the indices have corrected nearly 38.2% (Important Fibonacci No.)of their last bear leg.
| SYMBOL | EXPIRY | OPENINT | CHG IN OI | TR QTY | CONT | TRADES |
| NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 26570100 | 2100 | -8857500 | -177150 | -39975 |
| NIFTY | 25/10/2011 | 1328550 | 141450 | 4000 | 80 | -765 |
| NIFTY | 24/11/2011 | 214050 | 28100 | 2850 | 57 | -91 |
Surprisingly, Data from volume charts doesn't impress me. As can be seen from the above figures Traded Quantity, No.of Contracts traded and No.Of trades in September Nifty Futures were all lower than Yesterday. Even Open Interest absolutely was almost unchanged. Improvement in prices of Indices was not supported by Volumes which signifies that shorts have covered in the markets and longs have unwinded as we are approaching important resistance level of 5175.
We are at crucial juncture in the markets. Whether we will be able to breach 5239 (50% Fibonacci No) retracement level and 5362 (61.8% Fibonacci No.) retracement level in coming days needs to be watched carefully. If we are able to break this level & trade above 5362 levels for few trading sessions, it can be construed that we have formed & found the reasonable bottom of 4718. If not able to do so we once again might go to test this low and God forbid, if we break this low we might be headed towards much lower levels.
Another interesting observation is that, bear trend started from 6349 it stopped at 5175 taking 67 trading sessions and corrected up to 6000(61.8% of fall) taking 36 trading sessions to correct. It resumed its bear trend from 6000 & stopped at 5182 taking 50 trading sessions and corrected up to 5760 (61.8% of fall) taking 14 trading sessions to correct. It again resumed its bear trend from 5760 and stopped at 4718 taking 34 trading sessions. Now observation is, if it moves beyond 5362 (61.8% of fall) in lesser days and trade above this levels it can be validly argued that we have ended the bear trend at 4718 which started from 6349. New uptrend will be assumed to be started from 4718. This is technical observation and let us see it is vindicated in coming days or not.
Till that time we will have to respect the markets. We will have to accept the fact that all this resistance levels are crucial hurdles and unless we decisively cross it my advise is to short the Nifty Futures with respective stop at 5175 and 5362.
Among Stock Futures Reliance Ind, State Bank, Tata Motors. DLF and ICICI were top traded counters by volume. Top gainers list included IVRCL Infra +14% Unitech +8% Mercator Lines +7% Triveni Eng+7% Adani Power +7%. Top losers were Jubilant Foods -4% Lupin -3% GMDC -3% TTK Prestige -3% United Phos -3%
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