Derivatives Update:26.09.2011
| SYMBOL | EXPIRY | OPEN | HIGH | LOW | CLOSE | CHG |
| NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 4869.8 | 4879 | 4756.1 | 4844.3 | -26.4 |
| BANK NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 9374 | 9479.5 | 9160.05 | 9390.3 | 17 |
On price chart, Nifty made a lower top lower bottom and closed marginally down at 4844.3 by 26.40 points.Bank nifty too made a lower top lower bottom and finally closed at 9390.30 up by 17 points.
| SYMBOL | EXPIRY | OPEN INT | CHG IN OI | TR QTY | CONT | TRADES |
| NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 21613500 | -2090700 | -2296550 | -45931 | -26072 |
| NIFTY | 25/10/2011 | 7850000 | 2331100 | 3099850 | 61997 | 9518 |
| NIFTY | 24/11/2011 | 703950 | 92950 | -23150 | -463 | 192 |
On volume charts, it can be observed that activity is being shifted to October series. Change in Open Interest is largely due to shifting in October series. Net change in open interest is 2.20 lac shares approximately. Nothing can be construed from the volume chart except that shifting is done by participants.
On technical charts, we are still on weaker wicket. As can be seen from today's price movements both the indices have failed to cross yesterday's high and have made lower lows. It can be observed that it is making every effort to touch 4718, its recent low. Volatility as measured by India VIX was ruling around 35 which is still at its peak. No signals of trend reversal is seen in the immediate future. Some silver lining for bulls is that Nifty is taking some support at 4819 (200 WMA) on closing basis. It is not closing below this level decisively. But this can be viewed just as temporary relief. On the whole trend is still down and unless and until we see some meaningful break out, it is advisable to trade short in the market.
On Stock Futures front, active counters by volume parameter were State Bank, ICICI Bank,Reliance Ind, Tata Steel and Axis Bank. Top gainers list included Arvind Mills 5% ABG Shipyard 5% DLF 4% JPAssociates 3% Central Bank 3% while Top losers were Hind Oil -9% NCC -9% Titan -8% GMR Infra -6% Coal India -6%
On Stock Options front actively traded Stocks were Reliance 760 CE, State Bank 2000 CE Reliance 800 CE State Bank 1900 PE State Bank 1950 CE. Noticeable increase in Open Interest in Nifty Option series was seen in 4700 CE (625050) 4800 CE (995100) 4900 CE (835800) 5000 CE (952050) 4700 PE (361850) 4800 PE (287900). Decrease in Open Interest was seen in 5100 CE (-423700) 5200 CE (-333400) 5300 CE (-211100) 4900 PE (-381950) 5100 PE (-346200)
To summarize, nothing on price, volume and technical charts suggest any trend reversal. We are in downward trending markets where all resistance levels are met with good amount of supply and all support zones on down side are revisited. Both price wise and time wise we are running out of steam. One push downward, will break the spine of market and we might see lower levels as low as 4300-4500. Expiry is nearing, volatility is still at its peak and we are at crucial levels. Extreme caution is warranted. Watch technical break outs happening and than only venture a trade that too with strict stop.
Happy trading
Atul Doshi.
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