Derivatives Update:28.09.2011
| SYMBOL | EXPIRY | OPEN | HIGH | LOW | CLOSE | CHG |
| NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 4989 | 4995 | 4906.2 | 4936.65 | -41.2 |
| BANK NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 9671 | 9688 | 9420 | 9498.9 | -144.4 |
On price charts, as can be observed from above Nifty almost traded in the range equivalent to yesterday's high/low (4989.10/4905.5) but closed lower by 41.2 points at 4936.65. Bank Nifty too followed the trend closing at 9498.90 down by 144.40 points.
| SYMBOL | EXPIRY | OPEN INT | CHG IN OI | TR QTY | CONT | TRADES |
| NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 15524200 | -1560500 | -820350 | -16407 | -6384 |
| NIFTY | 25/10/2011 | 14022900 | 3102800 | 3515400 | 70308 | 19507 |
| NIFTY | 24/11/2011 | 863200 | 67250 | 150 | 3 | -329 |
On volume charts,as can be seen from above data traded quantity, no.of contracts and no.of trades were higher on net basis. Open Interest in September series came down whereas it has increased in October Series. It is difficult to judge the data when we are at fag end of the expiry but if we make a wild guess Open Interest on net basis have increased in a falling market which signifies some short has been added on in new series. Open Interest on 25.08.2011, day preceding last month's expiry was 21607450 which was much higher than today. On 26.08.2011 last expiry day it was 24228900. We need to see such built up is happening tomorrow or not. Significance of this observation is to check whether participants are actively participating in the market or not.
On technical charts, once again it is vindicated by today's price movements that we are in downward trending market and Nifty is not able to surpass resistance zone. Volatility as measured by India VIX is still ruling higher at 32 restricting participation in the market.On a down day Open Interest is increasing meaning thereby that Bears are active in the market. Pull backs are short-lived. No signs of trend reversal visible up till now. Important resistance level are 4978- 5010-5175-5362. Important support are 4819-4718. we are in a absolute range and not able to break on either side.
On Stock futures front, actively traded counters were Reliance, State Bank, DLF, ICICI Bank and Infosys. Top gainers were Hexaware (6%) GSPL (5%) Ruchi Soya (4%) Jain Irrigation (4%) HCL Tech (3%) While Top Losers were JSWHL (-8%) Rel Cap (-7%) Max (-7%) JSW Steel (-7%) KSOil (-7%)
On Stock Options front, Increase in Open Interest was witnessed in 4900 CE (1025200) 5000 CE (653100) 5100 CE (491000) 4800 PE (1096750) 4900 PE (678700) while Decrease in Open Interest was witnesses in 4700 CE (-353650) 5200 CE (-368100) 4500 PE (-270050) 5100 PE (-177900)
Active Series were State Bank 2000 CE Reliance 800 CE DLF 220 CE State Bank 1950 PE and Reliance 780 PE
My prognosis is biased towards markets going further down. We are almost over with current expiry and Nifty has by and large remained range bound between 4718 and 5175. Nearly five times Nifty has attempted to break above 5150-5175 range but has not succeeded in its attempt. It has even attempted to break 4718 but there too it has not succeeded. Volatility has remained extremely high during current series. All in all it was a boring series and traders are eagerly waiting for meaningful breakout which I hope will come in October series. Till the time any such breakout come ride with the trend and enjoy.
Happy Trading...
Atul Doshi
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