Derivatives Daily Update:15.09.2011

Derivatives Update:15.09.2011

 

SYMBOL	EXPIRY	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	CHG
NIFTY	29/09/2011	5041	5100	4957.2	5081.2	62.05
BANK NIFTY	29/09/2011	9519	9740	9375	9673.6	194.35

On price charts, Nifty September futures has managed to close above its previous day's close for 3rd consecutive day. Today it crossed yesterday's high of 5032.8 with substantial margin and was not able to break yesterday's low of 4908. Nifty September future closed at 5081,20 up by 62.05 points.Similarly Bank Nifty too showed a strength and closed at 9673.60 gaining 194.35 points.

SYMBOL	EXPIRY	OPENINT	CHG IN OI	TR QTY	CONT	TRADES
NIFTY	29/09/2011	24413550	-1368500	178850	3577	3127
NIFTY	25/10/2011	2830450	297900	-54150	-1083	-1911
NIFTY	24/11/2011	312200	11850	-4450	-89	-158

On Volume charts, Data reveals clearly that there was short covering in the market. Improvement in price coupled with increase in trading volumes and reduction in Open Interest by whooping 1368500 shares clearly indicates that shorts are getting covered as today also Bears were not able to break 4900 levels. Sensing the market mood, bears were in a buying spree taking markets to close higher than the previous day. Last 2 days show reduction in open Interest by nearly 24 lac Nifty futures. Though Open Interest is still higher by nearly 28 lac shares from the first day of current series.

On technical charts, this week till now we have seen Nifty trading in a range of 4900 -5100 but continuously  closing higher from corresponding previous session. On weekly basis, since Nifty made a low of 4718, It was making higher top higher bottom for preceding 2 weeks. In any case it is not able to clear resistance zone of 5175 to 5375. One interesting observation (refer to post 07.09.2011) is that, last down trend which started from 5760 and ended on 4718 took 34 sessions. From 4718 till date 12 sessions have passed. All the recent down trends corrected 61.8% retracement level in less than half time, in some cases even faster than that. Point that I am trying to make is that Nifty should retrace to 5362 which is 61.8% in another 5 sessions so as to concur with its earlier trend. If it fails to do so we might be in a major bear trend as it will prove that Nifty is not able to breach its major retracement level both price wise & time wise. 

On Stock futures chart, Active contracts by value parameter were SBI, RIL, INFY,LT,and AXIS. Top gainers list comprised of BGR Energy 15% TVS Motors 9% PFC 9% Patni 6% Tata Motor DVR 6%. While Contracts that lost ground were TTK Prestige -7% Srei Infra -6% Sun TV -4% KFA -4% DCHL -3%

On Stock Options chart, SBI 1900 CE SBI 1950 CE SBI 2000 CE SBI 1800 PE and RIL 840 CE were most active options.

My prognosis still remains that we are in downward trending market, All this up moves are mere gyrations & noises. All such up moves are the opportunity to short the market still we see any meaningful breakout. Any reversal in market need strong confirmation both on price as well as volume chart. Till now no such confirmation is forthcoming. As said earlier several times in several posts that we need to clear the resistance zone of 5175 5250 5375 pretty very fast to influence any change in a trend. 

Happy Trading...