Derivatives Update:21.09.2011
| SYMBOL | EXPIRY | OPEN | HIGH | LOW | CLOSE | CHG |
| NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 5150 | 5173.9 | 5113 | 5141.3 | -14.3 |
| BANK NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 9826 | 9954 | 9798.05 | 9913.05 | 86.25 |
On price charts, Nifty September has traded in a very narrow band today. As it is evident from the data, Nifty Futures made a high of 5173.9 and a low of 5113. It closed at 5141.30 just 14.3 points down. It made a higher top higher bottom today. Bank Nifty too made a higher top higher bottom pattern and closed in a positive with 86.25 points gain.
| SYMBOL | EXPIRY | OPEN INT | CHG IN OI | TR QTY | CONT | TRADES |
| NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 21770800 | -1141150 | -5138850 | -102777 | -30988 |
| NIFTY | 25/10/2011 | 3938800 | 200850 | -127850 | -2557 | -1447 |
| NIFTY | 24/11/2011 | 506050 | 66450 | 56600 | 1132 | 68 |
On volume charts, Nifty September Futures doesn't impress me. As can be observed from the data, Traded Quantity, No. of Contracts Traded as well as No. of Trades were all substantially down than yesterday. Even Open Interest has fallen by 1141150 shares. It shows lack of participation coupled with bull liquidation. Some built up is seen in October series but nothing to talk about.
On technical charts, it is observed that today also Nifty Futures was not able to surpass 5175 level which I am talking about from several days. As soon as Nifty approaches this level we see good amount of supply coming in to the market which restricts price movement beyond this level. It is equally true that Nifty is not even breaking on lower side.We are 6 sessions away from expiry so good amount of activity is anticipated in the market. Volatility as measured by India VIX has come down from its peak level but it is still on higher side. From last 14 trading session we are trading in a range of 4900 -5175 which is nearly 5%. As said in my earlier posts, whether we will be able to surpass 5362 (61.8%) of last fall from 5760 to 4718 in coming days till expiry is required to be watch carefully. In coming days if we are not able to surpass this level than we might drift down lower than 4718.
On Stock Futures front, State Bank, Reliance, ICICI bank, Tata Motors & Axis bank were the highest traded counters. Top Gainers list included India Cement 6% Bombay Dyeing 5% Arvind 5% NCC 5% Century Textile 5% while Top Losers were Hero Motors -3% Hindalco -3% Maruti -3% Cairn Energy -3% Reliance -2%.
On Stock Options front SBI 2000 CE, SBI 2050 CE SBI 2100 CE, Reliance 840 CE, LT 1600 CE were highest traded counters. Nifty Call Option Series 5200 5300 5400 saw increase in Open Interest by 370700 163450 264150 shares respectively. Nifty Put Option Series 4800 4900 5100 5200 saw increase in Open Interest by 1200350, 728950, 261100, 325750 shares, while Nifty Put Option Series 4700 4600 4500 saw reduction in Open Interest by 856550 210550 160950 shares.
My prognosis is still tilted towards Nifty drifting downwards as no sign of break out is visible. Every time we approach resistance zone, bout of supply comes which restricts upward price movements. Though neither Bull nor Bear is aggressive in the market as both the players are waiting for some breakout. Days till expiry are becoming very crucial as it also coincides with the required days(21) to correct the bear trend (5760-4718). Whether Nifty will be able to do that or not only time will tell. Till that time trade cautiously in the market with a downward bias.
Happy Trading...
Atul Doshi
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