Another Up Day: 10.10.2011
On price charts Nifty October Futures opened at 4911, made a low of 4890, bounced back to 5004 and finally closed at 4993.30 up by 94.70 points. Bank Nifty Futures too opened higher at 9081.10, made a low of 8986, bounced back to 9214.90 and finally closed at 9190.25 up by 147.25 points. Second day in a row Nifty has managed to close higher than its previous close. Volatility as measured by India VIX has closed at 30 down by nearly 9 %.
On volume charts, total no. of contracts traded were 41.25 lac and total turnover of the day was 1 lac Cr more or less same as yesterday. Put Call Ratio has marginally come down at 1.19. Traded quantity, no.of contracts as well as trades were all down. Even change in Open Interest was miniscule.
On technical charts, from last 2 days Nifty is making higher top higher bottom formation. Today Nifty has managed to close above its short term moving averages of 4888 & 4963 (10 & 20 days) respectively. Nifty can pull back up to 5069 which is 50 days moving average and might face some resistance at that level. Data from volume chart is not at all inspiring. Upward price movement is not supported by volumes. Participation is lackluster and traders are cautious.
On stock futures front, actively traded stocks on volume parameter were SBIN, Tata Motors, Reliance, ICICI Bank and DLF. Top gainers were Sun TV 10% Educomp 8% TTK Prestige 8% Delta Corp 8% and Tat Motor DVR 7%. Top losers were Maruti -4% Voltas -3% Neyvelli -3% NCC -2% Areva -2%
On Stock Options front actively traded stocks were SBIN 1800 CE, Reliance 820 CE Reliance 840 CE Reliance 800 PE and Infosys 2600 CE
On Nifty Options front, Positive change in Open Interest was witnessed in 5100 CE (348150) 4500 PE (905200) 4800 PE (642800) 4900 PE (1497350) 5000 CE ( 1221450) 5100 PE (325450) While negative change in Open Interest was seen in 4800 CE (-690750) 4900 CE (-1035500) 5000 CE (-297450) 5200 CE (-207250) 4300 PE (-369200) 4400 PE (-1770200)
In conclusion, I may say that for extreme short term trader there is an opportunity that we might pull back bit further and touch 5070-5100 level where again some supply is expected. Longer term still trend remains bearish as participation in rising market is very low which shows traders are not convinced about improvement in price. My feeling is that in coming few sessions we will break trading range of 4718-5175. On which side we will break only time will tell. Till that time play the range if you can or wait for some meaningful breakout.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi
On price charts Nifty October Futures opened at 4911, made a low of 4890, bounced back to 5004 and finally closed at 4993.30 up by 94.70 points. Bank Nifty Futures too opened higher at 9081.10, made a low of 8986, bounced back to 9214.90 and finally closed at 9190.25 up by 147.25 points. Second day in a row Nifty has managed to close higher than its previous close. Volatility as measured by India VIX has closed at 30 down by nearly 9 %.
On volume charts, total no. of contracts traded were 41.25 lac and total turnover of the day was 1 lac Cr more or less same as yesterday. Put Call Ratio has marginally come down at 1.19. Traded quantity, no.of contracts as well as trades were all down. Even change in Open Interest was miniscule.
| SYMBOL | EXPIRY | OPEN INT | CHG IN OI | TR QTY | CONT | TRADES |
| NIFTY | 25/10/2011 | 20838500 | 169750 | -2936800 | -58736 | -12811 |
| NIFTY | 24/11/2011 | 1470650 | 116100 | -29900 | -598 | 12 |
| NIFTY | 29/12/2011 | 303500 | 41900 | -18550 | -371 | -68 |
On technical charts, from last 2 days Nifty is making higher top higher bottom formation. Today Nifty has managed to close above its short term moving averages of 4888 & 4963 (10 & 20 days) respectively. Nifty can pull back up to 5069 which is 50 days moving average and might face some resistance at that level. Data from volume chart is not at all inspiring. Upward price movement is not supported by volumes. Participation is lackluster and traders are cautious.
On stock futures front, actively traded stocks on volume parameter were SBIN, Tata Motors, Reliance, ICICI Bank and DLF. Top gainers were Sun TV 10% Educomp 8% TTK Prestige 8% Delta Corp 8% and Tat Motor DVR 7%. Top losers were Maruti -4% Voltas -3% Neyvelli -3% NCC -2% Areva -2%
On Stock Options front actively traded stocks were SBIN 1800 CE, Reliance 820 CE Reliance 840 CE Reliance 800 PE and Infosys 2600 CE
On Nifty Options front, Positive change in Open Interest was witnessed in 5100 CE (348150) 4500 PE (905200) 4800 PE (642800) 4900 PE (1497350) 5000 CE ( 1221450) 5100 PE (325450) While negative change in Open Interest was seen in 4800 CE (-690750) 4900 CE (-1035500) 5000 CE (-297450) 5200 CE (-207250) 4300 PE (-369200) 4400 PE (-1770200)
In conclusion, I may say that for extreme short term trader there is an opportunity that we might pull back bit further and touch 5070-5100 level where again some supply is expected. Longer term still trend remains bearish as participation in rising market is very low which shows traders are not convinced about improvement in price. My feeling is that in coming few sessions we will break trading range of 4718-5175. On which side we will break only time will tell. Till that time play the range if you can or wait for some meaningful breakout.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi
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