Derivative Update:04.10.2011
On price charts, Nifty October Future opened lower at 4823 taking clues from overseas market, went up to 4884.75 on back of short covering as Nifty didn't fall in line with other markets but than it nosedived to 4725.55 and finally closed at 4775 down by 82.75 points. Bank Nifty was more vulnerable as it fell harder than Nifty finally closing at 8893.95 down by 288.65 points.
On volume charts, total turnover was 1.12 lac Cr, no.of contracts were 46.66 lac and put call ratio was 1.19. Volumes were better than yesterday and put call ratio was slightly down indicating there were less put writers in falling markets. Following data indicates that volumes are increasing when there is downward pressure on price which signifies fresh shorts have been created in the markets. Traded quantity, no.of contracts traded as well as no. of trades are all substantially higher than yesterday. Even Open Interest has substantially improved bu nearly 10 lac shares.
On technical charts, Nifty is moving as per scripted story. I had indicated in yesterday's post and several other posts earlier that we are in downward trending markets and no meaningful breakout on upper side is visible. I had even indicated that we will break this range on down side and probably might drift lower than 4718. Today it broke one important support of 4813 (200 WMA) and was in process to break 4718. Nifty managed to reach near those level but didn't broke the same. Weakness in market indicate that we will break that level in couple of days. We are hovering around 4765 which is 38.2% retracement of super wave(2228-6349). Once we decisively break this level, it can take us to 50% retracement level which is 4282.
On Stock Futures front, Top traded counters were SBIN, ICICI Bank, Reliance, LT and Tata Steel. Top gainers were KFA 6% Patni Comp 4% Maruti 3% Areva 2% Balrampur Chini 2%. Top losers were Jubilant Food -12% Srei Infra -6% DCB -6% Orchid Chem -6% Allahabad Bank -5%.
On Stock Options front, Top traded counters were Reliance 800 CE, SBIN 1900 CE, SBIN 1800 PE, SBIN 2000 CE and IFCI 32.50 CE.
On Nifty Options front, Positive change in Open Interest was witnessed in 4700 CE (611300) 4800 CE (1025400) 4900 CE (935950) 5000 CE (497500) 5100 CE (516350) 5200 CE (721200) 5300 CE (366650) 4000 PE (321200) 4100 PE ( 402700) 4300 PE ( 2129750) 4500 PE (1103700) 4700 PE (602350) 4800 PE (429450) Negative change in Open Interest was seen in 4400 PE (-421850) 4900 PE (-268200) 5200 PE (-225850) Key thing to watch is there is substantial building of positions in Out of the Money Call Options(2.7 Cr shares) &Out of the Money Put Options(4.11 Cr shares).
My Analysis of the data on all fronts viz Price, Volume & Technical indicate, confirm & vindicate my earlier stance that we are in strong downward trending markets and poised to drift further lower. Till date nothing on the data shows which has a potential to influence my thought process. We are on the verge of breaking trading range(5175-4718) on lower side. Watch this levels very carefully as capitulation selling might come in the market which can take it lower very violently.
Happy Trading..
Atul Doshi
On price charts, Nifty October Future opened lower at 4823 taking clues from overseas market, went up to 4884.75 on back of short covering as Nifty didn't fall in line with other markets but than it nosedived to 4725.55 and finally closed at 4775 down by 82.75 points. Bank Nifty was more vulnerable as it fell harder than Nifty finally closing at 8893.95 down by 288.65 points.
| SYMBOL | EXPIRY | OPEN | HIGH | LOW | CLOSE | CHG |
| NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 4823 | 4884.75 | 4725.55 | 4775 | -82.75 |
| BANK NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 9144 | 9270.1 | 8799.95 | 8893.95 | -288.65 |
On volume charts, total turnover was 1.12 lac Cr, no.of contracts were 46.66 lac and put call ratio was 1.19. Volumes were better than yesterday and put call ratio was slightly down indicating there were less put writers in falling markets. Following data indicates that volumes are increasing when there is downward pressure on price which signifies fresh shorts have been created in the markets. Traded quantity, no.of contracts traded as well as no. of trades are all substantially higher than yesterday. Even Open Interest has substantially improved bu nearly 10 lac shares.
| SYMBOL | EXPIRY | OPEN INT | CHG IN OI | TR QTY | CONT | TRADES |
| NIFTY | 25/10/2011 | 20607650 | 1030150 | 7161150 | 143223 | 38875 |
| NIFTY | 24/11/2011 | 1265450 | 127000 | 190800 | 3816 | 1638 |
| NIFTY | 29/12/2011 | 179500 | 80550 | 36150 | 723 | 382 |
On technical charts, Nifty is moving as per scripted story. I had indicated in yesterday's post and several other posts earlier that we are in downward trending markets and no meaningful breakout on upper side is visible. I had even indicated that we will break this range on down side and probably might drift lower than 4718. Today it broke one important support of 4813 (200 WMA) and was in process to break 4718. Nifty managed to reach near those level but didn't broke the same. Weakness in market indicate that we will break that level in couple of days. We are hovering around 4765 which is 38.2% retracement of super wave(2228-6349). Once we decisively break this level, it can take us to 50% retracement level which is 4282.
On Stock Futures front, Top traded counters were SBIN, ICICI Bank, Reliance, LT and Tata Steel. Top gainers were KFA 6% Patni Comp 4% Maruti 3% Areva 2% Balrampur Chini 2%. Top losers were Jubilant Food -12% Srei Infra -6% DCB -6% Orchid Chem -6% Allahabad Bank -5%.
On Stock Options front, Top traded counters were Reliance 800 CE, SBIN 1900 CE, SBIN 1800 PE, SBIN 2000 CE and IFCI 32.50 CE.
On Nifty Options front, Positive change in Open Interest was witnessed in 4700 CE (611300) 4800 CE (1025400) 4900 CE (935950) 5000 CE (497500) 5100 CE (516350) 5200 CE (721200) 5300 CE (366650) 4000 PE (321200) 4100 PE ( 402700) 4300 PE ( 2129750) 4500 PE (1103700) 4700 PE (602350) 4800 PE (429450) Negative change in Open Interest was seen in 4400 PE (-421850) 4900 PE (-268200) 5200 PE (-225850) Key thing to watch is there is substantial building of positions in Out of the Money Call Options(2.7 Cr shares) &Out of the Money Put Options(4.11 Cr shares).
My Analysis of the data on all fronts viz Price, Volume & Technical indicate, confirm & vindicate my earlier stance that we are in strong downward trending markets and poised to drift further lower. Till date nothing on the data shows which has a potential to influence my thought process. We are on the verge of breaking trading range(5175-4718) on lower side. Watch this levels very carefully as capitulation selling might come in the market which can take it lower very violently.
Happy Trading..
Atul Doshi
No comments:
Post a Comment