Derivatives Update:03.10.2011
On price charts, Nifty opened with a gap taking clue from international markets. It opened at 4869.80 went down to 4813, bounced back barely to touch 4879 & closed lower at 4857.75 down by 76.55 points. Bank Nifty too followed the trend, opened at 9320 made a low of 9116.05, bounced back to 9348 & finally closed lower at 9182.60 down by 240 points. Both the indices failed to cross their respective lows of yesterday confirming weak & nervous sentiment in the market.
| SYMBOL | EXPIRY | OPEN | HIGH | LOW | CLOSE | CHG |
| NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 4869.8 | 4879 | 4813 | 4857.75 | -76.55 |
| BANK NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 9320 | 9348 | 9116.05 | 9182.6 | -240 |
On volume charts, total contracts traded were 33.68 lac, total volume in F&O segment was 81,146 crore and Put to Call Ratio was 1.22. Volumes were lower than yesterday. As can be seen from the following data, today was extremely low volume day and minimal change in Open Interest figures suggest extreme low participation & low confidence of traders in the market.
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On technical chart, scenario is dismal. Nifty is trading in a range with downward bias. Though it is respecting technical supports & resistance zone. Even today it took classic support at 4813 (200 WMA) as referred in several earlier posts. Similarly it is not breaking classic resistance level of 5175. Volatility as measured by India VIX is ruling higher at 35. Call & Put Option premiums too are higher indicating traders are perceiving higher near term risk in price movements. In such a scenario, one needs to ride with the trend. Momentum in the market shows we will break this range on lower side. Neckline in Head & Shoulder Pattern is formed between 4718-4756 level, once we break this neckline we are headed downwards which might take us to 4300 levels.
On Nifty Options front positive change in Open Interest was seen in 4800 CE (338500) 4900 CE (809350) 5000 CE (308750) 5100 CE (361650) 4200 PE (384450) 4300 PE (1280400) 4500 PE (345200) 4600 PE (492550) 4700 PE (1415600) 4800 PE (1154300)
On Stock Options front, top traded counters were Reliance 800 CE, LT 1400 CE, LT 1350 CE, Reliance 820 CE & SBIN 1850 PE.
On Stock Futures front, top traded counters were Reliance, SBIN, LT, INFY,and Coal India. Top gainers list included BPCL 4% JPPOWER 3% HPCL 3% EDUCOMP 2% IOC 2%. Top losers were SINTEX -11%, SCI -10%, DLF -9%, JSWSTEEL -7% JINDAL STEL -7%
In conclusion, Nothing on the price charts, volume charts, technical charts suggests me to change my opinion. We are in a downward trending market and on verge of breaking trading range on downside. Once we break 4700 levels decisively, we might see level of 4300. Though a word of caution, Volatility in the market is extremely high which might force the market upwards violently, It is advisable to use this opportunity of pull back to sell Nifty Futures unless we see signs of some meaningful bottom in place or the signs of trend reversal. Till that time ride with the trend & enjoy.
Happy trading
Atul Doshi
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