Down & Weak Day: 18.10.2011
On price front, Nifty October Futures opened weak at 5053, hardly made a high of 5063.30, drifted down under selling pressure to 5013.30 and finally closed at 5044.90 down by 70.95 points. Bank Nifty too performed similarly by opening at 9685 didn't even move higher than open price, drifted down to 9481.50 finally closed at 9579.10 down by 123 points.
On volume front, total turnover was 1.22 lac Cr and total no.of contracts traded were 48.76 lac, both higher than yesterday's figure. Put Call Ratio was at 1.12 and Volatility as measured by India VIX was higher at 25.90. Trading volumes were higher in all the three series though on net basis change in open interest was miniscule and nothing to write about.
On stock futures front, actively traded counter on volume parameter were TCS, SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATAMOTORS & TATASTEEL. Top gainers list included PATNI 15% KFA 7% GMDC 7% WELCORP 3% COALINDIA 3%. Top losers list comprised of CHAMBALFERTI -16%, HCLTECH -9%, TCS -7%, MOSERBAER -6% & POLARIS -6%.
On stock options front active counters were SBIN 1900 CE, RELIANCE 840 CE, TCS 1100 CE, RELIANCE 820 CE, PETRONET 170 CE.
On nifty options front, positive change in open interest was seen in 5000 CE(707350) 4900 PE (394600). Negative change in open interest was seen in 5300 CE (-339700) 5400 CE(-283850) 4800 PE(-503100) 5100 PE(-1185600) 5200 PE (-326250). Open Interest of In The Money Put Option was 58.71 lac shares and Call Option was 65.89 lac shares. Open Interest in Out of The Money Put Option was 4.87 Cr shares while Call Option was 2.70 Cr shares.
On technical front, one single observation is Nifty is finding a good resistance and supply of shares at higher levels and is not able to surpass not-so-sacrosanct 5175 level. Similarly it is taking support at its medium term moving average(50 days) of 5015. Today also it has seen some buying or short covering at 5015 levels. In coming days whether this averages between 4930 -5030 will be held or not needs to be watched carefully. Markets have become extremely range bound between 5000 -5175. But with the kind of volatility in markets such band can not be held for too long. Breakout is imminent. Till that time trade the range if you can or wait for breakout.
At the end of the day, If I have to stick my neck out and opine than my stance still would be bearish. Nothing on the charts till suggest trend reversal. Advise is to go short on Nifty with adequate stop loss unless some meaningful breakout above 5250 & 5360 is visible.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi.
On price front, Nifty October Futures opened weak at 5053, hardly made a high of 5063.30, drifted down under selling pressure to 5013.30 and finally closed at 5044.90 down by 70.95 points. Bank Nifty too performed similarly by opening at 9685 didn't even move higher than open price, drifted down to 9481.50 finally closed at 9579.10 down by 123 points.
On volume front, total turnover was 1.22 lac Cr and total no.of contracts traded were 48.76 lac, both higher than yesterday's figure. Put Call Ratio was at 1.12 and Volatility as measured by India VIX was higher at 25.90. Trading volumes were higher in all the three series though on net basis change in open interest was miniscule and nothing to write about.
| EXPIRY | OPEN INT | CHG IN OI | TR QTY | CONT | TRADES |
| 25/10/2011 | 19457100 | -1709500 | 2094250 | 41885 | 10509 |
| 24/11/2011 | 3961600 | 1289600 | 1381200 | 27624 | 7618 |
| 29/12/2011 | 843150 | 251450 | 266550 | 5331 | 1162 |
| TOTAL | 24261850 | -168450 | 3742000 | 74840 | 19289 |
On stock futures front, actively traded counter on volume parameter were TCS, SBIN, ICICIBANK, TATAMOTORS & TATASTEEL. Top gainers list included PATNI 15% KFA 7% GMDC 7% WELCORP 3% COALINDIA 3%. Top losers list comprised of CHAMBALFERTI -16%, HCLTECH -9%, TCS -7%, MOSERBAER -6% & POLARIS -6%.
On stock options front active counters were SBIN 1900 CE, RELIANCE 840 CE, TCS 1100 CE, RELIANCE 820 CE, PETRONET 170 CE.
On nifty options front, positive change in open interest was seen in 5000 CE(707350) 4900 PE (394600). Negative change in open interest was seen in 5300 CE (-339700) 5400 CE(-283850) 4800 PE(-503100) 5100 PE(-1185600) 5200 PE (-326250). Open Interest of In The Money Put Option was 58.71 lac shares and Call Option was 65.89 lac shares. Open Interest in Out of The Money Put Option was 4.87 Cr shares while Call Option was 2.70 Cr shares.
On technical front, one single observation is Nifty is finding a good resistance and supply of shares at higher levels and is not able to surpass not-so-sacrosanct 5175 level. Similarly it is taking support at its medium term moving average(50 days) of 5015. Today also it has seen some buying or short covering at 5015 levels. In coming days whether this averages between 4930 -5030 will be held or not needs to be watched carefully. Markets have become extremely range bound between 5000 -5175. But with the kind of volatility in markets such band can not be held for too long. Breakout is imminent. Till that time trade the range if you can or wait for breakout.
At the end of the day, If I have to stick my neck out and opine than my stance still would be bearish. Nothing on the charts till suggest trend reversal. Advise is to go short on Nifty with adequate stop loss unless some meaningful breakout above 5250 & 5360 is visible.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi.
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