Samvat 2068 Opens with Bang: 28.10.2011
Nifty November Futures closed up by 153 points at 5385.50 and Bank Nifty futures too closed up by 379 points up at 9959.90. Though trading data is nor comparable with yesterday, as Mahurat session was of only 1.15 hr, Open Interest in Nifty November Futures stood at 2.78 Cr up by nearly 11 lac shares.
Total turnover of FO segment was 95k Cr and no.of contracts traded were 36.37 lac. Put Call ratio stood at 1.23. Volatility as measured bu India VIX was at 21 drastically down by 7%.
Individual stock futures which performed better on volume parameter were SBIN, ICICIBANK, HINDALCO, RELIANCE & INFY. Top gainers were HINDALCO 11% JSWSTEEL 10% MOSER 9% IVRCL 9% GTOFFSHORE 8%. Top losers were GITANJALI -4% BPCL -3% JUBIFOOD -2% TTK -2% AREVA -2%.
Individual stock options which attracted higher activity were RELIANCE 900 CE SBIN 2000 CE HINDALCO 140 CE SBIN 1900 CE & ICICIBANK 900 CE
Nifty options series where Open Interest increased were 5400 CE (4 lac) 5500 CE (15 lac) 5600 CE (11 lac) 5700 CE (5 lac) 4900 PE (9 lac) 5200 PE (12 lac) 5300 PE ( 24 lac) 5400 PE (11 lac) 5500 PE (5 lac). Nifty options series where Open Interest decreased were 5100 CE (-3 lac) 5200 CE (-5 lac) 5300 CE (-4 lac) 4500 PE (-2 lac) 4600 PE (-4 lac) 4700 PE (-7 lac)
Observation of price behavior on charts shows that Nifty after crossing psychological level of 5175 has consistently opened up with gap on 2 days and filled up the gap of 5337-5191 with the same vengeance and style. It has even closed above the major resistance area of 5240 -5360, both important Fibonacci nos.which I was talking about in earlier posts. Price wise it has corrected 61.8% of fall from 5760 to 4718 but time wise it has taken longer time to correct the trend compare to earlier similar cases. All earlier retracements took half the time to correct the trend but this time it took more time to correct the down trend which leads us to doubt the sustainability of up move and makes us believe that this rally is corrective and will soon fizzle out. Secondly all the falls from 6349 levels were corrected by nearly 61.8% or some time even more but ended lower than previous top. Just to give you an example fall from 6349 to 5728 was corrected up to 6210 level but was unable to surpass 6349. Similarly fall from 6210 level to 5175 was corrected up to 6000 level but was not able to surpass 6210. So if we believe in this observation, this time fall from 5760 level to 4718 has corrected up to 5385 till date but will not surpass 5760. But for extremely short term trader since it has crossed 5360, one can buy with stop below 5240 with a price objective of 5470 as it is the downward sloping trend line joining earlier 2 tops. To cut it short, my view on long term basis is still bearish but in short term you have an opportunity to make some bucks by buying with strict stop loss.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi.
Nifty November Futures closed up by 153 points at 5385.50 and Bank Nifty futures too closed up by 379 points up at 9959.90. Though trading data is nor comparable with yesterday, as Mahurat session was of only 1.15 hr, Open Interest in Nifty November Futures stood at 2.78 Cr up by nearly 11 lac shares.
Total turnover of FO segment was 95k Cr and no.of contracts traded were 36.37 lac. Put Call ratio stood at 1.23. Volatility as measured bu India VIX was at 21 drastically down by 7%.
Individual stock futures which performed better on volume parameter were SBIN, ICICIBANK, HINDALCO, RELIANCE & INFY. Top gainers were HINDALCO 11% JSWSTEEL 10% MOSER 9% IVRCL 9% GTOFFSHORE 8%. Top losers were GITANJALI -4% BPCL -3% JUBIFOOD -2% TTK -2% AREVA -2%.
Individual stock options which attracted higher activity were RELIANCE 900 CE SBIN 2000 CE HINDALCO 140 CE SBIN 1900 CE & ICICIBANK 900 CE
Nifty options series where Open Interest increased were 5400 CE (4 lac) 5500 CE (15 lac) 5600 CE (11 lac) 5700 CE (5 lac) 4900 PE (9 lac) 5200 PE (12 lac) 5300 PE ( 24 lac) 5400 PE (11 lac) 5500 PE (5 lac). Nifty options series where Open Interest decreased were 5100 CE (-3 lac) 5200 CE (-5 lac) 5300 CE (-4 lac) 4500 PE (-2 lac) 4600 PE (-4 lac) 4700 PE (-7 lac)
Observation of price behavior on charts shows that Nifty after crossing psychological level of 5175 has consistently opened up with gap on 2 days and filled up the gap of 5337-5191 with the same vengeance and style. It has even closed above the major resistance area of 5240 -5360, both important Fibonacci nos.which I was talking about in earlier posts. Price wise it has corrected 61.8% of fall from 5760 to 4718 but time wise it has taken longer time to correct the trend compare to earlier similar cases. All earlier retracements took half the time to correct the trend but this time it took more time to correct the down trend which leads us to doubt the sustainability of up move and makes us believe that this rally is corrective and will soon fizzle out. Secondly all the falls from 6349 levels were corrected by nearly 61.8% or some time even more but ended lower than previous top. Just to give you an example fall from 6349 to 5728 was corrected up to 6210 level but was unable to surpass 6349. Similarly fall from 6210 level to 5175 was corrected up to 6000 level but was not able to surpass 6210. So if we believe in this observation, this time fall from 5760 level to 4718 has corrected up to 5385 till date but will not surpass 5760. But for extremely short term trader since it has crossed 5360, one can buy with stop below 5240 with a price objective of 5470 as it is the downward sloping trend line joining earlier 2 tops. To cut it short, my view on long term basis is still bearish but in short term you have an opportunity to make some bucks by buying with strict stop loss.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi.
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