A Rising Day: 14.10.2011
On price front, it was clearly a up day. Nifty October Futures opened at 5060 barely made a low of 5056 went up to 5153.70 and finally closed at 5143.35 up by 69.30 points. Bank Nifty too followed the trend opened at 9532.05 made a low of 9485 went straight up to 9699 and finally closed at 9674.05 up by 121.70 points.
On volume front, it was not a good picture. Total turnover in FO segment was 1.12 lac Cr and no.of contracts were 44.55 lac lower than yesterday's figures. Traded quantity, no.of contracts and no. of trades were all down. Even Open Interest figures were not at all inspiring. Only soothing point was that volatility as measured by India VIX was ruling at 26 much lower than yesterday. Put to Call Ratio of Options was at 1.14.
On stock futures front, most actively traded counters were SBIN, RELIANCE, INFY, TCS and TATASTEEL. Top gainers were UNPHOS 8%, ARVIND 7%, TRIVENI 7%, POLARIS 7%, BALRAMCHINI 6%. Top losers were KFA -7%, SESAGOA -4%, MCDOWELL -4%, TATASTEEL -4%, IGL -3%.
On stock options front, heavily traded contracts were RELIANCE 860 CE, RELIANCE 900 CE, RELIANCE 880 CE, SBIN 1900 CE, RELIANCE 840 PE.
On nifty options front, positive change in open interest was seen in 5300 CE (357950) 5400 CE (692450) 4800 PE (837000) 4900 PE (295700) 5000 PE (1284150) 5100 PE (1507700) 5200 PE (478200). Negative change in open interest was seen in 4800 CE (310000) 4900 CE (348800) 5000 CE (416850) 5100 CE(626550) 4700 PE(568500). Out of the Money Put Option open interest was 5.48 Cr shares and Call Option was 2.16 Cr. In the Money Put Option open interest was 34.62 lac shares and Call Option was 1.11 Cr shares.
On technical front as can be seen from the price movements that Nifty has made some trading bottom around 4940-5030 range which even coincides with its short term to medium term moving averages. For extremely short term bull traders this can be considered as exit level. Bull trade initiated at current level has a potential to earn a price level of 5240 once it crosses 5175.
My prognosis still remains bearish for longer term. Nifty needs to decisively surpass 5240 which is 50% retracement level of bear trend (5760-4718) and 5360 which is 61.8 % retracement level of bear trend (5760-4718) and trade above that for few sessions. Unless it does so, in my opinion, opportunity to make money lies in going short on Nifty.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi
On price front, it was clearly a up day. Nifty October Futures opened at 5060 barely made a low of 5056 went up to 5153.70 and finally closed at 5143.35 up by 69.30 points. Bank Nifty too followed the trend opened at 9532.05 made a low of 9485 went straight up to 9699 and finally closed at 9674.05 up by 121.70 points.
On volume front, it was not a good picture. Total turnover in FO segment was 1.12 lac Cr and no.of contracts were 44.55 lac lower than yesterday's figures. Traded quantity, no.of contracts and no. of trades were all down. Even Open Interest figures were not at all inspiring. Only soothing point was that volatility as measured by India VIX was ruling at 26 much lower than yesterday. Put to Call Ratio of Options was at 1.14.
| SYMBOL | EXPIRY | OPEN INT | CHG IN OI | TR QTY | CONT | TRADES |
| NIFTY | 25/10/2011 | 20705700 | -170500 | -1526600 | -30532 | -14708 |
| NIFTY | 24/11/2011 | 2499350 | 302950 | 51450 | 1029 | 41 |
| NIFTY | 29/12/2011 | 530100 | 41350 | -6150 | -123 | -131 |
On stock futures front, most actively traded counters were SBIN, RELIANCE, INFY, TCS and TATASTEEL. Top gainers were UNPHOS 8%, ARVIND 7%, TRIVENI 7%, POLARIS 7%, BALRAMCHINI 6%. Top losers were KFA -7%, SESAGOA -4%, MCDOWELL -4%, TATASTEEL -4%, IGL -3%.
On stock options front, heavily traded contracts were RELIANCE 860 CE, RELIANCE 900 CE, RELIANCE 880 CE, SBIN 1900 CE, RELIANCE 840 PE.
On nifty options front, positive change in open interest was seen in 5300 CE (357950) 5400 CE (692450) 4800 PE (837000) 4900 PE (295700) 5000 PE (1284150) 5100 PE (1507700) 5200 PE (478200). Negative change in open interest was seen in 4800 CE (310000) 4900 CE (348800) 5000 CE (416850) 5100 CE(626550) 4700 PE(568500). Out of the Money Put Option open interest was 5.48 Cr shares and Call Option was 2.16 Cr. In the Money Put Option open interest was 34.62 lac shares and Call Option was 1.11 Cr shares.
On technical front as can be seen from the price movements that Nifty has made some trading bottom around 4940-5030 range which even coincides with its short term to medium term moving averages. For extremely short term bull traders this can be considered as exit level. Bull trade initiated at current level has a potential to earn a price level of 5240 once it crosses 5175.
My prognosis still remains bearish for longer term. Nifty needs to decisively surpass 5240 which is 50% retracement level of bear trend (5760-4718) and 5360 which is 61.8 % retracement level of bear trend (5760-4718) and trade above that for few sessions. Unless it does so, in my opinion, opportunity to make money lies in going short on Nifty.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi
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