Derivatives Segment Review:05.10.2011
On price charts, Nifty October Futures opened at 4791 made a high of 4844, drifted down to 4747 and finally closed marginally lower at 4769.70 by 5.70 points. Bank Nifty Futures opened at 8950 made a high of 9000, drifted down to 8637.95 and finally closed at 8710.95 lower by 183 points. Pressure which was seen in banking stocks from couple of days continued even today. In last 10 trading sessions Bank Nifty has gone down by nearly 1300 points and Nifty has gone down by 450 points.
On volume charts,Total turnover was 96000 Cr, no.of contracts traded were 40.28 lac, Put Call Ratio was 1.09. Volumes were lower than yesterday. Put Call Ratio further came down indicating unwillingness on part of participants to write put options. Figures of Nifty Futures volume and Open Interest also suggests lackluster trading. No.of contracts traded, traded quantity as well as no.of trades were all down from yesterday's level. Even open Interest has come down. Only inference that can be drawn from volume data is traders are confused or are waiting for some meaningful breakout.
On technical charts, for the whole day Nifty has traded in range of yesterday's high & low. From last more than a month Nifty is trading in a price band of 4718-5175. Somewhere down the line Nifty should break this price band. Probability is that it will break on lower side. Once it breaks that level we might hover around 4650 levels virtually touching 4300. As said in yesterday's post currently we are trading at 38.2% retracement level of super wave(2228-6349). Once we decisively break this level we might make some meaningful bottom between 4600-4300.
On Stock Futures front, Counters that traded higher on volume parameter were SBIN, ICICI Bank, Reliance, Tata Steel, Axis Bank. Top gainers were Sun TV 6% JP Associates 4% Areva 4% Orchid Chem 4% Educomp 4%. Top losers were Rolta -9% Renuka -8% Jain irrigation -7% Max -7% CESC -6%.
On Stock Options front, Top traded counters were SBIN 1800 CE, SBIN 1700 PE, SBIN 1900 CE, Reliance 800 CE, SBIN 1850 CE.
On Nifty Options front, Positive change in Open Interest was seen in 4800 CE (560650) 4900 CE (211900) 5000 CE (383300) 5100 CE (753900) 5200 CE (307400) 4200 PE (295500) 4400 PE (757800) 4500 PE (432600) Negative change was seen in 4300 PE )(-265600). Open Interest in Out of the Money Call Options was 3.19 Cr shares while Out of the Money Put Options was 3.49 Cr shares. In the Money Call Option was 10.6 Lac while In the Money Put Option was 64.74 Lac shares.
To conclude, We are in downward trending market, Volatility is high, we are trading well below short term as well as long term moving averages which ranges from 4890 to 5490. In such a scenario even if market bounces back in pull back, advise is to short the market. At the cost of repetition let me warn you that Volatility is high and movements in Nifty is very very erratic. If you are caught on the wrong foot you will loose substantial money so trade with caution with negative bias.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi
On price charts, Nifty October Futures opened at 4791 made a high of 4844, drifted down to 4747 and finally closed marginally lower at 4769.70 by 5.70 points. Bank Nifty Futures opened at 8950 made a high of 9000, drifted down to 8637.95 and finally closed at 8710.95 lower by 183 points. Pressure which was seen in banking stocks from couple of days continued even today. In last 10 trading sessions Bank Nifty has gone down by nearly 1300 points and Nifty has gone down by 450 points.
| SYMBOL | EXPIRY | OPEN | HIGH | LOW | CLOSE | CHG |
| NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 4791 | 4844 | 4747 | 4769.3 | -5.7 |
| BANK NIFTY | 29/09/2011 | 8950 | 9000 | 8637.95 | 8710.95 | -183 |
On volume charts,Total turnover was 96000 Cr, no.of contracts traded were 40.28 lac, Put Call Ratio was 1.09. Volumes were lower than yesterday. Put Call Ratio further came down indicating unwillingness on part of participants to write put options. Figures of Nifty Futures volume and Open Interest also suggests lackluster trading. No.of contracts traded, traded quantity as well as no.of trades were all down from yesterday's level. Even open Interest has come down. Only inference that can be drawn from volume data is traders are confused or are waiting for some meaningful breakout.
| SYMBOL | EXPIRY | OPEN INT | CHG IN OI | TR QTY | CONT | TRADES |
| NIFTY | 25/10/2011 | 20153150 | -454500 | -3915150 | -78303 | -19751 |
| NIFTY | 24/11/2011 | 1360900 | 95450 | -75550 | -1511 | -629 |
| NIFTY | 29/12/2011 | 218150 | 38650 | -20050 | -401 | -61 |
On technical charts, for the whole day Nifty has traded in range of yesterday's high & low. From last more than a month Nifty is trading in a price band of 4718-5175. Somewhere down the line Nifty should break this price band. Probability is that it will break on lower side. Once it breaks that level we might hover around 4650 levels virtually touching 4300. As said in yesterday's post currently we are trading at 38.2% retracement level of super wave(2228-6349). Once we decisively break this level we might make some meaningful bottom between 4600-4300.
On Stock Futures front, Counters that traded higher on volume parameter were SBIN, ICICI Bank, Reliance, Tata Steel, Axis Bank. Top gainers were Sun TV 6% JP Associates 4% Areva 4% Orchid Chem 4% Educomp 4%. Top losers were Rolta -9% Renuka -8% Jain irrigation -7% Max -7% CESC -6%.
On Stock Options front, Top traded counters were SBIN 1800 CE, SBIN 1700 PE, SBIN 1900 CE, Reliance 800 CE, SBIN 1850 CE.
On Nifty Options front, Positive change in Open Interest was seen in 4800 CE (560650) 4900 CE (211900) 5000 CE (383300) 5100 CE (753900) 5200 CE (307400) 4200 PE (295500) 4400 PE (757800) 4500 PE (432600) Negative change was seen in 4300 PE )(-265600). Open Interest in Out of the Money Call Options was 3.19 Cr shares while Out of the Money Put Options was 3.49 Cr shares. In the Money Call Option was 10.6 Lac while In the Money Put Option was 64.74 Lac shares.
To conclude, We are in downward trending market, Volatility is high, we are trading well below short term as well as long term moving averages which ranges from 4890 to 5490. In such a scenario even if market bounces back in pull back, advise is to short the market. At the cost of repetition let me warn you that Volatility is high and movements in Nifty is very very erratic. If you are caught on the wrong foot you will loose substantial money so trade with caution with negative bias.
Happy Trading
Atul Doshi
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